Right now, Israel is a deeply fractured country with increasing numbers demanding an end to the war and a deal to free all the hostages. With as many as 500,000 people lining the streets of Tel Aviv recently, the atmosphere is febrile and the anger is palpable.
Such are the depths of grief and cynicism towards the political establishment, that many have blamed the murder of six hostages directly on Netanyahu and his alleged vacillation preceding their deaths.
The concept of pidyon shvuyim, the rescue of captives, is core to Israeli self-identity and a mission of the utmost value in Judaism. And that is why one of the war’s key goals is to ensure the safe return of the Israelis seized on October 7. But a premature deal with Hamas to end the war would be a tragic and terrible mistake from which Israel might take years to recover.
To understand why, it helps to think from a Hamas perspective. Sinwar knows that he can exert enormous leverage from the remaining hostages he holds. He will surely use them to exact the maximum concessions from Israel in the coming months, demanding that the IDF withdraw from the strategically vital Philadelphi corridor, leave Gaza fully and then end the war.
Jeremy Havardi
In addition, Israel will be forced to hand over many hundreds of terrorists from its jails as part of an Iranian strategy to ignite the West Bank with terror. Until Israel agrees to these conditions, it is hard to see why Hamas would give up its main bargaining chip in these negotiations.
With Hamas in charge of the Philadelphi corridor, it can continue to smuggle quantities of weapons via the Egyptian border and re-assert its control of Gaza. It is only a matter of time before rockets start being fired again and the next terror attacks are launched against Israeli civilians with terrible and deadly consequences for both sides.
A hostage negotiation to end the war sends out the wrong message to the terrorists. It suggests that taking captives yields long term political dividends, encouraging them to continue this egregious practice.
Some argue that the withdrawal from Gaza can be merely temporary. Israel, so it is argued, has to merely leave Gaza for six weeks and can always return when Hamas breaks its side of any agreement, as it surely will. But this is to assume that Israel will face no international pressure if it re-enters the enclave.
Right now, the US and her allies are desperate to bring the war to an end, with all wanting a process of negotiation that does not involve a resumption of hostilities. Similar pressure is building up inside Israel among an increasingly war weary public. Hamas’ leaders know this too and will surely increase their demands in return for releasing all the hostages.
A hostage negotiation to end the war sends out the wrong message to the terrorists. It suggests that taking captives yields long term political dividends, encouraging them to continue this egregious practice.
It tells the Israeli families of terror victims that they will not receive justice in the long term, that, regardless of the crimes committed against their families, the perpetrators will soon be released, doubtless to commit further atrocities.
It cannot be forgotten that one of those terrorists released in 2011 as part of the Shalit deal was Yahya Sinwar, architect of the 7 October massacre. Then as now, there was a deep clamour for a hostage deal, seemingly at any price. It was a tragic mistake then and it is a tragic mistake now.
That is not to say that Israel should abandon the hostages; far from it. Their desperate plight should be front and centre of Israel’s Gaza strategy. Israel should continue applying intense military pressure until either the hostages are found or until a much-weakened Hamas is forced to release them. The US should also continue to pressure Qatar, one of the Islamist group’s main backers.
It is often said that those who seek the defeat of Hamas are pursuing a war without end. Actually, it is those who want ‘deals’ with a genocidal death cult, one which seeks to revive and rebuild so it can attack Israel all over again, that are creating the recipe for endless war.
