Why did PA chief Mahmoud Abbas announce his successor now?

Suddenly, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas issued a controversial presidential decree announcing who would replace him in an interim period when the post became vacant. 

On Wednesday, Abbas, 89-years-old, announced that the Palestinian National Council chairman, Rawhi Fattouh, would be his temporary replacement if the position should become vacant.

“If the position of the president of the national authority becomes vacant in the absence of the legislative council, the Palestinian National Council president shall assume the duties… temporarily,” the presidential decree said.

The decree added that elections must be held within 90 days of the transition period. This deadline can be extended in the event of “force majeure”.

Under current Palestinian law, the speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) is supposed to takes over the Palestinian Authority in the event of a power vacuum. But the PLC, where Hamas had a majority, no longer exists since Abbas officially dissolved it in 2018 after more than a decade of tensions between his party, Fatah, and Hamas, which ousted the Palestinian Authority from power in the Gaza Strip in 2007.

Speaking to The New Arab, Palestinian political analysts opined that Abbas’s announcement attempts to pursue the main goal of the Palestinian Authority, Israel, the United States, and several Arab countries, to prevent Hamas from assuming any role in governing the Palestinian territories after the end of Israel’s war.

Bypassing the Palestinian constitution

“Although Abbas’s announcement is a coup against the Palestinian constitution, it carries a clear message to Hamas that it will have no place in government, whether in the West Bank or Gaza and this will be supported by the Arab countries, Israel and the United States,” Adnan Samara, a Ramallah-based political analyst, said to TNA. 

“The constitutional declaration came as a result of American and Arab pressure to restructure the Palestinian political system in the Palestinian territories and prevent Hamas from coming to power again via Palestinian law,” he said. 

“Abbas faces a major dilemma, so he resorted to issuing the constitutional declaration, bypassing the text in the Basic Law to end any ambition and Hamas’s bet on assuming power after his illness or death,” Samara added. 

According to Article (120) of the amended Basic Law, “The provisions of this amended Basic Law shall not be amended except with the approval of a two-thirds majority of the members of the Palestinian Legislative Council.”

Therefore, according to Omar Assaf, another Ramallah-based political analyst, the president does not have the authority to issue constitutional declarations to amend the Palestinian Basic Law, and what Abbas did by issuing a constitutional declaration “violates the entire constitutional system”.

“The constitutional declaration issued by Abbas has more political dimensions, and strengthens the authority of the one individual, which was strengthened by the dissolution of the Legislative Council on the one hand, and control over the appointments of the head of the Judicial Council on the other hand,” Assaf said.

“This announcement will further strengthen the division in the Palestinian political system,” he added, expressing his fears that the announcement is a response to external political interests, perhaps Arab or US.

Hamas’s popularity in the occupied West Bank 

Hamas’ popularity is on the rise in the occupied West Bank due to the Palestinians believing that the Palestinian Authority abandoned the Gaza Strip, according to Abdul Majid Sowailem, a Ramallah-based Palestinian political analyst. 

“Abbas wants to prevent any growth in Hamas’s presence, in addition to wanting to prevent any dispute over power between Fatah members in the event of his absence,” Sowailem remarked to TNA.  “It is clear that Abbas is preparing for the form of the Palestinian Authority in the postwar era, so he is laying the foundations that the Palestinians should follow, which explains this sudden announcement.”

However, Sowailem argues that Abbas’ announcement may reinforce division between Fatah and Hamas, which will prevent national reconciliation efforts if the latter is excluded from the political scene.

According to a public opinion poll by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research released this past September, satisfaction with Hamas’ performance was marked at 75 percent in the occupied West Bank and 39 percent in the Gaza Strip; Fatah was at 25 percent in the occupied West Bank and 29 percent in the Gaza Strip; the PA was reported at 30 percent in the Gaza Strip and 18 percent in the occupied West Bank; and president Abbas had 13 percent in the occupied West Bank and 25 percent in the Gaza Strip.