Can Israel’s love for Trump survive his coming negotiations with Iran?

Columnist
Dan Perry
April 8, 2025

The United States and its allies — including Israel — have long relied on a mix of deterrence, diplomacy, and delay to manage Iran’s nuclear ambitions. With Iran closer to developing a nuclear weapon than it’s ever previously been, that formula is now bankrupt. So with President Donald Trump declaring a renewal of nuclear talks, Israel needs Trump not just to be pro-Israel, but to be un-trickable.

The Iranian regime excels at turning negotiations into a labyrinth of distraction and delay. That model must be rejected. The U.S. offer should be stark: intrusive inspections, irreversible dismantling of the nuclear program, and an end to Iran’s network of proxy terror groups — in exchange for full sanctions relief and normalized trade. No sunsets, no ambiguity, no spin.

There is a gnawing fear in Jerusalem that Trump, like his predecessors, could be lulled into a diplomatic charade with Tehran that will leave Israel vulnerable, as a top target for any nuclear program Iran succeeds in developing. Former President Barack Obama’s administration got played, to a degree, in this way: Endless, meandering negotiations allowed Iran to buy time and edge closer to nuclear capability, creating leverage.

Can Trump avoid that trap? With his mercurialness, there’s no telling. On one hand, he loathes Iran and blew up the previous nuclear deal during his first term. On the other, he prides himself on dealmaking, and may be tempted to show off his prowess through a superficially bold new round of talks.

But there’s reason to hope he’ll be able to pull it off, if he so wishes. Iran is vulnerable. The Oct. 7 war has battered its proxies: Hezbollah is constrained, Hamas is decimated, and the Houthis are facing American firepower. The Iranian economy is sputtering and domestic unrest simmers. The regime’s credibility is dented.

If ever there were a moment for a hard pivot, this is it.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s response to Trump’s Monday announcement of the coming talks with Iran — which took place during a joint press conference, amid the Israeli leader’s hastily organized trip to Washington, D.C. to try to negotiate over new American tariffs — was hesitant, but positive. And in a moment of growing disillusionment with Netanyahu — at home and abroad — Israel’s embattled prime minister may actually be right.

Tehran’s nuclear program is more advanced than ever. It is a short technical sprint away from being able to enrich weapons-grade uranium. It has the fissile material for multiple bombs, and its rhetoric remains genocidal toward the Jewish state.

So, however much Israel might not like the idea of direct U.S. engagement with Iran, it might be a decent option to at least try. To take negotiations seriously, Iran must believe the alternative is not vague threats, but rather a credible readiness to strike. Trump is the rare U.S president bold enough to actually bring that credible threat to the table. He should.

After all, Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is broad and hardened, but it is not invulnerable. A focused U.S.-led campaign could set the program back years. Trump’s team could communicate that, if pressed, they will send a message to Iran’s people and power centers that the era of military impunity when it comes to nuclear development is over. If war comes, the West will do everything to catalyze the fall of a regime hated by many of its own citizens.

Yes, there would be risks to military conflict. Iran could retaliate via proxies or direct missile strikes on U.S. bases or Israel, or attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. But none of this is inevitable — and all of it is manageable with resolve, planning, and coordination. The important thing, now, is the ability to make the threat, and have it be understood as more than pure postering.

Despite their divisions, Israelis see clearly that a nuclear Iran would be an unmitigated disaster. Netanyahu — for all his outrageous faults — sees that too. Let’s hope that Trump also grasps the scale of the problem. It is clear he believes that he alone can strike the “best deal,” but this is not real estate. It’s a crisis of global security. He should be ready to actually fight.

So yes, it’s a strange moment. Trump may be Israel’s best hope, but also a big risk. Netanyahu, a divisive and often corrosive figure, may be right about the value of taking this risk, at this time. And if the U.S. fails to act decisively, Israel may have to act alone.

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