It finally happened. At around 3am Iranian time the United States finally did what so many in Israel had hoped it would do and struck the Iranian nuclear facilities.
According to the Pentagon, the US used 75 “precision guided” weapons, including 14 massive ordnance penetrators on several targets, including Fordo, a uranium enrichment plant buried deep in the mountains, and the site of Iran’s main uranium enrichment facility. Two other critical sites—Natanz and Isfahan—were also struck.
Iran’s nuclear programme lies in ruins – though the full extent of the damage is not yet clear. On a tangential but important point, the UN’s nuclear watchdog has reported that no increase in off-site radiation levels has been detected.
Israeli officials claim they were in “full coordination”” with the U.S. on planning the operation. Critically, the U.S. contacted Iran through diplomatic channels on Saturday, assuring Tehran that the airstrikes were all that was intended and that there were no plans for “regime change”.
This point was later re-emphasised in an address by US Secretary of Defence Peter Hegseth who said the strikes were not about regime change – but that “President Trump has consistently stated for over 10 years that Iran must not get a nuclear weapon”.
Israel’s president Isaac Herzog called Trump’s attack on Iran “historic”, saying the operation shows the “deep and courageous alliance” between the US and Israel.
But he also warned that “the campaign is not over”, adding that “the coming days may be sensitive, complex, and challenging”, and urged Israelis to keep following officials’ life-saving instructions.
Herzog was being characteristically wise. Amid the pervasive triumphalism, amid
David Patrikarakos
the social media bloviating, the situation remains highly dangerous. Without doubt, the regime is now more vulnerable than it has been in its 50-year history. Without doubt, Khamenei’s nuclear gamble—spending vast sums on a program that has led to political isolation—has failed.
But it is not finished yet. There are no signs of the Iranian people rising up. The regime may be overwhelmingly unpopular but even if it retains just a hardcore support of 20%, in a country of 91 million that’s 18 million people, many of whom will be more than willing to die for the Islamic Republic.
Thus far we’ve seen a masterclass of kinetic military success. What is required now is vision. If Israel wants to complete the successes enjoyed so far, it must continue to strike Iranian ballistic missile facilities and eliminate senior IRGC and military leaders – from the air – hoping that this might embolden the people to rise up. And then – it must stop.
An ideal world is of course one where the Islamic Republic does not exist. Not merely for the sake of the region and the world but most of all for the Iranian people. And it may well be that the twin blows from Washington and Jerusalem have accelerated that eventuality. If that is the case then we can count it as yet another good deed done over the past week or so.
But we must not get carried away. We must not think that it lies within Israel or America or even the West’s power to remake Iran or indeed the wider Middle East. We’ve been here before with the disasters of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Beyond that there is a lesson closer to home for the Israelis.
In 1982 Ariel Sharon told his Prime Minister Menachim Begin that he would advance just a few kilometres into Beirut to take out the terror threat there. He too sought to remake the Middle East. Well, the short foray into Lebanon turned out to last 18 years, and cost Israel greatly, before it finally – and forlornly – withdrew in 2000.
Let’s not be ignorant of the lessons of history. Now is a time of great and understandable emotion, but it is also a time when, above all, emotion cannot be allowed to dictate policy, the stakes are simply too great. For Israel and Iran, the United States, and for us all.
