Here’s why Orthodox Jews are loyal to Trump — even if they don’t love him

National polls show Donald Trump and Kamala Harris running neck and neck down to the wire of a divisive and polarizing campaign. But in certain Orthodox Jewish circles, the race has never been competitive.

A September Nishma Research poll found that Trump was outpolling Harris among Haredi with a staggering 93% of the likely vote. Harris led Trump 55% – 45% among modern Orthodox Jews. The Jewish Democratic Council of America doesn’t differentiate between Haredi and modern Orthodox, but their October poll showed Trump beating Harris 68% to 31% among Orthodox voters.

We don’t have reliable exit polls on the Orthodox Jewish vote in 2016 and 2020. But based on how I read the pulse in a community that I have covered and reported to for more than twenty years, Orthodox and particularly Haredi Jews are among Trump’s most loyal supporters — for valid reasons.

Trump delivered what he promised as president on priorities important to many Haredim, especially for Israel. He formally recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and relocated the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. He showed courage in the face of warnings that his move would spark violence and mass anti-American demonstrations in the Muslim world — which it didn’t.

Trump also officially recognized the Golan Heights as sovereign Israeli territory — a move that was a long time coming, after Israel’s 1981 de facto annexation of the strategic plateau it captured from Syria in the 1967 Six-Day War. The Golan, which the IDF uses as a base from which to observe and choke off arms shipments from Iran to Hezbollah via Syria, is essential to Israel’s security along its northeast border with Syria, which is now effectively under Russian and Iranian military control.

Trump’s Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, reversed decades of U.S. policy when he declared that Israeli settlements in the West Bank — many of which are populated by Orthodox groups — were not, per se, inconsistent with international law.

Nikki Haley, Trump’s choice for United Nations ambassador, became a passionate and articulate defender of Israel at the United Nations. And last but not least, Trump pioneered the Abraham Accords, in which Israel signed normalization agreements with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, proving that Jews and Muslims can set their differences aside.

While the Biden administration overturned the “Pompeo Doctrine” on settlements, it’s telling that the administration did stick to Trump’s positions on Jerusalem and the Golan. Better late than never, they are proactively working to beat Trump to the draw to add Saudi Arabia to the Abraham Accords.

Orthodox voting and Israel

While Jewish voters at large do not prioritize Israel as an issue, the Nishma survey revealed that the candidates’ stances on Israel meaningfully influence their success with Orthodox voters.

One Haredi respondent wrote: “Support of Israel affects Israel’s security, plus the expression of antisemitism worldwide, and is representative of the support of moral values without which the world will degenerate as it is doing.”

A Modern Orthodox respondent wrote: “Israel is central to my identity as a Jew. Critical that the U.S. continues to support Israel, especially at a time of existential danger.”

Trump has a positive track record on Israel, while Harris is a heartbeat away from the presidency in President Joe Biden’s administration, which has displayed a split personality toward Israel, supporting the country’s right to self-defense but only on its own terms. The administration puts the onus on Israel to provide humanitarian aid that Hamas hijacks immediately after it crosses the border.

To many Orthodox, the administration appears to have asked Israel to fight with one hand tied behind its back, heightening the risk to Israeli civilians and soldiers.

Orthodox Jews are also concerned about the plight of civilian Palestinians in Gaza and civilian Lebanese people, but we wonder aloud why, for the past 17 years, nobody raised a peep when Hamas and Hezbollah were commandeering schools, mosques, playgrounds, residences, and UNRWA facilities in Gaza and Lebanon to build a subterranean terror infrastructure.

The Nishma survey also showed that 63% of Haredim and 40% of Modern Orthodox approve of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s performance in office. During the mass demonstrations against Israel’s proposed judicial reforms, the Biden administration openly sympathized with protestors’ demands to oust Netanyahu, while offering no support for the cause of regime change in Iran, which terrorizes its population, while financing a seven-front proxy war on Israel.

Unwelcome shifts among Democrats

This is among the reasons that Jewish Americans increasingly fear that the Democratic Party rank-and-file is turning its back on Israel.

A late September Economist/YouGov poll asked 1,622 American adult citizens: In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, are your sympathies more with Israel or the Palestinians?

Some 63% of Republicans answered “with Israel,” and only 5% with the Palestinians.

Among Democrats, 33% answered “with Palestinians,” 32% said about equal, while only 14% sided more with Israel.

This may have little to do with Harris herself. But sentiment within the Democratic Party is trending in a disturbing direction, and Orthodox Jews are taking note.

This is not to say that Trump doesn’t have his issues. His remark that the Jews will deserve blame if he loses could be spun in a few different ways, but it sounded ominous. Antisemitism is booming in America. We can do without the blame — from him, and from anyone.

And it’s true that Republicans have their share of sour apples. Jewish Americans must keep their eyes on and ears tuned to Trump supporters such as Tucker Carlson, who has turned openly antisemitic since Fox News ditched him. I covered the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee this year, and cringed when Hulk Hogan spoke, followed by UFC President Dana Hogan, who introduced Trump’s acceptance speech. By the same token, the Trump campaign blundered by inviting comedian Tony Hinchcliffe to his Madison Square Garden rally; Hinchcliffe regaled the crowd with offensive ethnic jokes that are older than he is, and aren’t funny at a time when people of color are feeling defensive and on edge.

Orthodox Jews follow halacha, Jewish law, including on crucial matters of speech. Both Torah and rabbinical law prohibit mockery, defamation, talebearing, and repeating derogatory information against someone for no purpose — even if it’s true. We take these undignified exhibitions seriously. And issues of character do play a role in the Orthodox Jewish decision-making process.

Many Orthodox Jews would have preferred a candidate such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who would have given us Trumpian policies minus the daily drama and incessant tweets, or even Nikki Haley, who projects refinement and dignity.

But their campaigns fizzled, and Republican primary voters spoke. Donald Trump is their candidate for the third consecutive election. Character is important, but having an electorate feel comfortable with their candidate is even more so.

The choice on Nov. 5, for those who haven’t voted yet, is between Trump, who has a proven track record on Israel, and Kamala Harris, who’s part of an administration that has put stumbling blocks in Israel’s path, and is the new leader in a party that’s drifting away from its support for the Jewish state. If you want to know why a supermajority of Haredi Jews might vote for Trump: that’s why.

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