Since the United Arab Emirates (UAE) normalised diplomatic relations with Israel in 2020 through the Abraham Accords, many Israelis have felt extremely safe in the Gulf Arab country.
But their sense of security in the UAE may change as a result of this month’s killing of Rabbi Zvi Kogan in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi.
Although not all the important facts surrounding the murder are clear, this deadly episode has created a situation that could prove challenging for the UAE’s leadership to deal with effectively.
As a Chabad emissary to Abu Dhabi, the 28-year-old rabbi was a dual citizen of Israel and Moldova. Kogan had previously served in the Israeli army’s Givati Brigade. He and his wife had been living in the UAE since 2022 and he managed Rimon Market, a kosher grocery store in Dubai.
The rabbi went missing on 21 November. Three days later, his body was found in the city of Al Ain, located next to the Omani border, 150 kilometres (93 miles) from Abu Dhabi. The following day, the UAE’s authorities declared that they had arrested three Uzbek nationals suspected of murdering Kogan.
All three had fled to Istanbul after their alleged killing of the rabbi. Turkish security forces arrested them and then the Turkish government extradited them to the UAE at the request of Emirati officials.
Harming the UAE’s image
The governments of Israel, Moldova, and the UAE quickly condemned Kogan’s killing with extremely strong language.
The Emirati ambassador to the US Yousef al-Otaiba stated that the killing of Kogan on Emirati soil was “more than a crime in the UAE – it was a crime against the UAE. It was an attack on our homeland, on our values, and on our vision”.
The UAE presents itself to the world as a tolerant country where people of all faiths are respected and live in peace and harmony. The Emirati ambassador’s statement was therefore “an effort to project strength, competence, and continued commitment to crafting this image of tolerance at what has been a deeply challenging, and even embarrassing, moment for the country,” Dr Monica Marks, an Assistant Professor of Middle East Politics at New York University, Abu Dhabi, told The New Arab.
“For Dubai, projecting this image of tolerance is a key component of pragmatic neomercantilism: it wants as many visitors and foreign residents contributing as much wealth, while coexisting peacefully, as possible. For Abu Dhabi, this image is central to broader diplomatic goals, too. It wants the UAE to be seen as an island of safety and stability, and as a bulwark against Islamist and Iranian influences that it considers to be destabilising,” she added.
Ambassador al-Otaiba’s statement means that Kogan’s killing goes “against everything the UAE has branded itself to be – a very safe place where people could go and have fun, not a place where people settle scores,” commented Dr Aziz Alghashian, a senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation Middle East (ORF-ME), in a TNA interview.
The leadership in Abu Dhabi wants society in the UAE to be apolitical and the country to always stand out as a special place where “differences can be overcome and [where] people…can come from different parts of the world, [and] even [from] antagonistic positions,” he added.
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“I think what happened with this incident is that [the UAE] is afraid that it is becoming a place of settling scores. It certainly doesn’t want to be that,” explained Dr Alghashian.
As Dr Marks put it, this murder case threatens the UAE’s image in the sense that it could be “revealing the gaps between UAE leadership’s rhetoric of peaceful coexistence and the more complex reality in which this gravely serious security breach occurred”.
The message behind this murder was more directed against the UAE than at Israel, according to some experts who spoke to TNA. By killing an important figure in the UAE’s Jewish community, at least one of the perpetrators’ motivations was to capture the international media’s attention and embarrass the Gulf Arab country at the global level.
“Many Israeli soldiers returning from Gaza have been openly vacationing in the UAE with their names, pictures, and social media profiles easily accessible. If this had been intended as a retaliatory act, these individuals would likely have been the primary targets,” explained Dr Mira al-Hussein, an Emirati sociologist and research fellow at the University of Edinburgh’s Alwaleed Centre, in a TNA interview.
“Instead, I believe the crime was aimed at undermining the UAE’s carefully cultivated image of tolerance and religious coexistence, while also tarnishing its braggadocious brand of ‘safety and security.’ The attack seems designed to convey that the UAE’s celebrated hi-tech surveillance infrastructure is vulnerable – an implicit challenge that resonates with the ambassador’s statement,” she added.
Dr Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, said that when considering the likely reason(s) for this murder it is tough to avoid speculating that anti-Jewish and/or anti-Israeli sentiments were a motivation.
“When an overtly Jewish person is killed in the Arab world these days, it’s hard to avoid the idea that it was motivated by anger over Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians, the war in Gaza, and generalised outrage about the situation of the Palestinian people. Obviously, [it] doesn’t make sense to blame all Israelis, let alone all Jews, for this. But some people do that,” he stated in a TNA interview.
“And there is the ‘jihadist’ rhetoric from al-Qaeda and the like that would say that any Israeli (like any American) is fair game for attack and ‘retribution.’ So that’s another potential motivating factor. It doesn’t really sound like an Iranian action, more like an al-Qaeda-style attack. Or it could be something personal. But, however it turns out to be, the UAE [will regard it] as a major attack on their way of life,” added Dr Ibish.
This murder case quickly sent shockwaves throughout the Jewish community in the UAE.
“It has, overnight, made people far more afraid to be visibly Jewish in the UAE. It will not come close to toppling the Abraham Accords. But it has increased fear in the local Jewish community and will likely diminish tourism to the UAE from Jewish visitors, including Israelis, at least temporarily,” holds Dr Marks.
“Fewer Israelis are likely to visit the UAE in the short-term, due to this murder and an Israeli government travel advisory warning its citizens to avoid any non-essential travel to the UAE,” said Gordon Gray, the former US ambassador to Tunisia, in a TNA interview.
“This plays into Benjamin Netanyahu’s rhetoric that Jews are safe only within Israel’s borders – a narrative he actively promotes while perpetuating a genocide in Gaza and dangerously expanding the war that threatens to engulf the region,” Dr al-Hussein told TNA.
Damage control
When analysing Abu Dhabi’s damage-control strategy after the news broke, understanding the sequence of events and how the story was reported is key.
As Dr al-Hussein recounted, Israeli media platforms first reported on Kogan missing in the UAE with some citing the Dubai police. Then nearly 12 hours passed before Emirati authorities issued official statements concerning the troubling situation.
When those official statements did come there was coordination with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s X account. Notably, Abu Dhabi’s statement referred to a “missing person” while avoiding any mention of his Israeli identity and his role as a rabbi in the UAE, instead referring to Kogan as a “Moldovan citizen”.
According to Dr al-Hussein, this approach “reflected poor crisis management, with panicked and disorganised messaging, including appeals for the public to ‘ignore rumours intended to cause public disorder’”.
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Alleged Iranian involvement
Israeli government officials have accused Iran of being behind Kogan’s murder, maintaining that Tehran hired the Uzbek suspects to carry out this criminal act. Yet, as of writing, no evidence connects Iran to the killing of the UAE-based rabbi. The Iranian embassy in Abu Dhabi denies such allegations.
In recent years, the UAE and Iran have worked to improve their bilateral relationship. Abu Dhabi’s view is that lower tensions with the Islamic Republic will bode well for security in the UAE and the Gulf at large. Within this context, the leadership in Abu Dhabi does not want this murder to derail the Emirati-Iranian détente.
Dr al-Hussein told TNA that Israeli media was driving the narrative about Kogan’s killing after the news first broke, identifying the suspects as Uzbek nationals and accusing Tehran of involvement. But, beginning on 24 November, the UAE announced the suspects’ apprehension in the Gulf Arab country, stating that further information would be disclosed to the public after completion of the investigation.
“Notably, while the Mossad is reportedly involved in the investigation, no Israeli media outlet or source had broken the news of the arrests. It appears the UAE has decided to take control of the narrative, possibly to avoid officially implicating Iran in the murder,” noted the Emirati sociologist and social commentator. She went on to assert that the Iranian embassy’s statement denying Tehran’s involvement “seems to be the version that both the UAE and Iran will stick to publicly”.
Gray explained that “any indication that the Iranian government was involved in the murder would put the UAE in a bind”. Mindful of Abu Dhabi’s interest in not antagonising Tehran, “it is a difficult needle to thread,” the former US diplomat told TNA.
“Under such circumstances, I would anticipate a private but clear and strong Emirati protest to the Iranian authorities. Whether it would have any effect is, of course, a different question,” commented Gray.
There is no getting around the fact that the emergence of any evidence linking Tehran to this murder would have a “very negative effect” on the UAE’s relationship with Iran for at least four key reasons, explained Dr Ibish.
“First of all, the UAE would strongly object to any assassinations on its own soil by anyone. Second, it would reflect the idea that Iran is meddling inside the UAE, which is absolutely unacceptable. Thirdly, it would be seen as an attack on their way of life and their own sovereign decisions by a would-be regional hegemon. Fourth, it would be regarded as a betrayal of the rapprochement with Iran that they have been engaged in for the past couple of years,” he told TNA.
Nonetheless, Dr Ibish believes that if Iran is found guilty of some role in this deadly incident, the authorities in Abu Dhabi “would certainly find a way to register their objections in a practical manner”.
Ultimately, Emirati officials are fully aware that there are many soft targets in the UAE, located close to Iran. Therefore, Abu Dhabi will probably carefully calibrate the UAE’s relationship with Tehran in the interest of preventing further instability in the region.
If proof of Iranian involvement emerges, it is possible that the UAE would choose to avoid going public with it. Doing so could quickly “spill over into the broader security concerns with Iran, which the UAE wants to mitigate,” explained Dr Alghashian.
“So, it’s something that is going to be, in my opinion, kept not quiet, but managed. I think the UAE will try to deal with it as swiftly and as strongly as possible, but I don’t think the UAE will deal with it in a reckless manner,” he said in a TNA interview.
Challenges for the UAE
As a Gulf Cooperation Council state in the Abraham Accords, the UAE has been forced to navigate anger at Israel which has built up both at home and throughout the region. Emirati authorities have been doing so by making the UAE’s ties with Israel lower profile than before the Gaza war erupted on 7 October 2023, tightly controlling news content, and severely punishing those in the UAE who criticise Abu Dhabi’s normalisation with Tel Aviv.
As Dr Marks observed, the UAE is working to achieve three goals in the aftermath of Kogan’s killing. The first is to ensure that no similar attacks occur again. The second is to prevent this episode from harming the UAE’s improved relationship with Iran or exacerbating regional tensions. The third is to navigate public opinion on issues related to Israel-Palestine.
“Increased surveillance, seriousness in dealing with more threats of this type, and very careful message projection will likely be its three main responses,” she told TNA.
Looking ahead, it will be critical for the UAE to make “absolutely clear not only that they object to this, but that they will make sure it doesn’t happen again,” explained Dr Ibish.
“A major police response is essential and that’s easy because the UAE is a police state anyway. Finding out who did this and why is essential, and then that way the response can address precisely what happened and the reasons for it,” he added.
The UAE’s reputation as a country that provides safety and security to everyone there is essential to the Gulf Arab state’s prospects for further economic development and the continued success of its unique statecraft model.
“They cannot tolerate such murders, whatever their motivation might be, to take place on their territory. It is antithetical to everything they are trying to build,” concluded Dr Ibish.
Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics
Follow him on Twitter: @GiorgioCafiero
