What will Syria’s oil and gas industry look like post-Assad?

After nearly 14 years of civil war, triggered by now-ousted Syrian president Bashar al-Assad‘s brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protests, Syria stands at a pivotal crossroads.  

The conflict has left the nation deeply fragmented, with numerous questions about its future, including the fate of the country’s oil and gas industry. 

The collapse of Assad’s regime opened up new possibilities and challenges, as the war had devastated Syria’s energy sector with oil and natural gas production declining significantly since 2011, and resources and facilities in the hands of different actors.  

While Syrians prepare to rebuild their country, its oil and gas industry – once a critical pillar of its economy – faces an uncertain future.  

The New Arab looks at some potential impacts.

Does Syria have oil?

Although small compared to other Middle Eastern countries, Syria’s oil exports accounted for roughly a quarter of government revenue in 2010.  

However, recent data from the World Bank revealed a 3.5 per cent annual decline in oil production, partly due to damage from earthquakes and ongoing conflict. 

Before the war, Syria’s oil production averaged over 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) between 2008 and 2010. 

By May 2015, this had dropped to fewer than 25,000 bpd, according to the US Energy Information Administration but by 2023 production averaged approximately 91,000 bpd. 

The World Bank noted that while oil production was already in decline due to ageing fields, the conflict has significantly accelerated this decrease. 

Assad’s regime lost control of most of Syria’s oil fields to non-state actors including the Islamic State (IS) group and later Kurdish-led forces. 

International sanctions on key regime figures, including those connected to the oil industry, severely restricted the government’s ability to export oil.  

As oil production in regime-controlled areas dwindled and fighting disrupted supply chains, the Syrian regime was forced to become heavily reliant on oil imports from Iran.

What comes next?

Following the fall of the Assad regime and the temporary appointment of Mohammed al-Bashir to lead a transitional government until 1 March, experts are awaiting clarity from Syria’s incoming administration about the future of oil supplies and the monumental task of rebuilding damaged cities and critical sectors, such as oil and gas, can begin.

However, with strict international sanctions still in place, there have been immediate calls for them to be lifted or eased, though this process could take several weeks or even months. 

Delaney Simon, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, stated on X (formerly Twitter) on Monday that Syria is “one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world”, emphasising that maintaining these sanctions would be akin to “pulling the rug out from Syria just as it tries to stand”. 

Intensifying calls for Syria’s reconstruction are focused on the eastern Deir az-Zour governorate, which holds around 40 percent of the country’s oil reserves and several gas fields. 

 This province is currently under the control of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), although that group is rapidly losing ground to Turkish-led rebel forces.

Qamar Energy CEO Robin Mills argued in Energy Connects that while “oil and gas money can be enormously important in helping post-war reconstruction”, there could be a risk that “the state continues to be torn apart by competing claims, or, as in Yemen and Libya, oil money sustains militias and continuing conflict over resources”.

He cautioned that without restoring central authority, attempts by rival groups – similar to the autonomous administrations or rival governments in Yemen and Libya – to use control of petroleum infrastructure to pay bills, provide jobs, and exert political leverage, could further fragment the country.  

“Syria’s oil and gas output could revive to an extent, with better security and waivers to international sanctions,” he continued. 

While Syrians are optimistic about the future of their country following the fall of the Assad regime, the country faces uncertainty following the collapse of a government that controls every aspect of daily life. 

The oil ministry has called on all employees in the sector to return to their workplaces starting Tuesday, assuring that protection will be provided to ensure their safety. 

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