In order to estimate the number of those killed in Gaza, the study’s authors used a statistical sampling technique that is often used to estimate population size as well as death tolls during conflicts in Guatemala, Colombia and Sudan.
They also analyzed data from health ministry morgue records, online obituaries and an online health ministry survey, among other sources.
Palestinian health ministry figures have repeatedly come under scrutiny in the period since Israel launched its offensive in Gaza, mostly from Israeli officials. In May last year, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs changed its reporting methods for mortality in Gaza in an incident that sparked confusion and skepticism.
Israel launched its offensive following the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attacks, in which some 1,200 people were killed and around 250 taken hostage marking a major escalation in a decadeslong conflict.
Even so, major health authorities such as the World Health Organization have continued to express confidence in the data provided by Palestinian health officials.
Jamaluddine said she believed the study published Thursday reflects “that the numbers put forward by the [Palestinian] health ministry are accurate,” and may be conservative as opposed to an inflation of the death toll in Gaza.
Israel, which is facing accusations of genocide in a case brought by South Africa before the International Court of Justice, has maintained that it does not intentionally target civilians in its Gaza offensive.
The study comes amid a string of deadly strikes by Israeli forces in Gaza, with 74 children reported by local health authorities to have been among those killed in the first seven days of 2025.
Video filmed by NBC News’ crew on the ground captured the aftermath Tuesday night of a strike on a tent camp in the area of al-Mawasi, known as a humanitarian zone, that killed a mother, Haneen Abu Awad, and four of her children.
In the footage, four young children can be seen lying bloodied and motionless as their bodies — small enough to fit onto a single stretcher — are transported to a local hospital.
The Israel Defense Forces did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the incident.
As long as the deadly fighting in Gaza continues, Jamaluddine said a more thorough analysis of the death toll in the enclave would remain elusive. She added that ceasefire would be necessary to allow for a true assessment of the human toll of the war.
