Trucks carrying aid queue on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip on 9 September 2024. [Getty]
Egypt will not likely participate in any Arab or international force that can be formed to take responsibility for security and administrative affairs in Gaza after Israel’s war comes to an end.
This position, analysts in Cairo said, is rooted in the Arab country’s fear from getting caught in the middle of any future wars between Hamas and Israel.
This is particularly so, they added, if a truce aspired to be reached by the two sides in the coming few days does not hold after going into effect.
Hamas has expressed a keen desire for reaching a deal several times in the past weeks, particularly with US president-elect, Donald Trump, threatening ‘all hell to pay’, if the Palestinian group does not release the dozens of hostages, including some US nationals, it holds in its custody.
Nevertheless, nobody can guarantee that either Israel or the Palestinians will abide by the terms of a deal if it is nailed down and comes into effect in the coming days, analysts said.
“There is uncertainty over how much Israel’s right-wing government will be committed to a deal, especially with some members of this government favouring a continued fight until the total eradication of Hamas,” Rakha Ahmed, a former assistant to the Egyptian foreign minister, told The New Arab.
“The fear is that Israel might resume its attacks against Gaza after the Palestinian group releases all the hostages in its custody,” he added.
If the war breaks out between the two sides again, the Arab or international force managing Gaza’s affairs and security under the expected ceasefire deal will find itself caught in the middle of this fight.
The same force will have to take action to prevent attacks on Israel from the Palestinian side, which will pit it against the Palestinians in Gaza, a scenario Egypt does not want to be part of any time in the future.
On the table
The issue of Gaza’s administration on the day after the war is highly pertinent, especially with indirect ceasefire and prisoner exchange talks between Hamas and Israel harrowing towards a deal in Qatari capital, Doha.
Most of the capabilities of the formerly Gaza-ruling Hamas have been destroyed, along with the movement’s infrastructure, even as Hamas is still capable of staging attacks against Israeli troops and inflicting harm on them.
This brings up the need for formulating a mechanism for post-war Gaza governance.
A post-war authority in Gaza will mainly be tasked with preserving security, preventing a recurrence of attacks against Israel, and managing Gaza’s administrative affairs, including the distribution of humanitarian aid to the population of the Palestinian territory which teeters on the edge of famine.
The United Arab Emirates is reportedly in talks with the US and other parties, including Israel, on forming a force to administer Gaza after the war.
The US is also said to have a plan ready for Gaza’s administration after the guns fall silent in the beseiged, occupied Palestinian territory.
The plan will reportedly include the institution of an international force that includes Arab troops to run Gaza’s security and administrative affairs.
Why Egypt matters
Egypt matters strongly when it comes to Gaza’s administration or rebuilding after the war for different reasons.
The populous Arab country shares a 12-kilometre (7.5-miles) long border with Gaza. The same border is the Palestinian coastal enclave’s only land window to the outside world, given Israel’s closure of its five land crossing points with Gaza since it imposed an all-out blockade on it in 2007, following Hamas’ takeover of it.
The Egyptian border with Gaza contains two land crossing points, including the Rafah Crossing, designated for the movement of persons to and from Gaza, and the Karem Abu Salem crossing, which is responsible for the entry of goods into it.
The vast majority of the humanitarian and relief aid that went into Gaza in the past months since the launch of the Israeli genocidal war since 7 October 2023, entered from Sinai, Egypt’s north-easternmost territory where a gigantic logistical hub has been established for the reception of international aid in preparation for sending it to Gaza.
Most of the aid that entered Gaza in the past months since the beginning of the war also came from Egypt where dozens of local aid organizations cooperate to bring together hundreds of tonnes of food, water, and medical supplies, to send them to Gaza.
Egypt has clarified its opposition to the presence of foreign troops in Gaza several times in the past months, since debates about the administration of post-war Gaza started.
The latest Egyptian confirmation in this regard came earlier this month from Egyptian Foreign Minister, Badr Abdelatty, who said his country is opposed to the presence of foreign troops in the neighbouring Palestinian territory.
Egypt’s position to participation in an Arab or an international force that will manage Gaza’s affairs after the war is not any different either.
The Egyptian stance in this regard was highlighted by what the Egyptian news channel, Cairo News, described on 19 June 2024 as a high-level Egyptian source who said Egypt would not participate in any possible Arab force to be formed to manage the Palestinian side of the Rafah crossing on the border with Egypt, which was occupied by Israel in May last year.
Best scenario
Egypt, analysts said, is better positioned to offer training to a unified Palestinian force that can take over administrative and security affairs in Gaza after the war.
Egypt worked hard over the years to unify Palestinian factions, believing that Palestinian rifts weaken the Palestinians’ negotiating position with Israel and torpedo Palestinian statehood dreams altogether.
This belief had fuelled repeated rounds of negotiations in Cairo between Palestinian factions, including the West Bank-ruling Fatah, the mother organization of the Palestinian Authority (PA), and the Gaza-ruling Hamas.
In early December last year, the same factions agreed to form a committee to administer Gaza.
There is belief that the same committee can be a good step on the road to founding the aspired Palestinian state.
If formed, the committee will consist of between 10 and 15 independent Palestinian technocrats.
It will administer education, health, the economy, aid and construction in the war-torn Palestinian territory.
Egypt, which has repeatedly called for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on the 1967 borders, can aid the committee, which will also likely be responsible for security affairs in Gaza, analysts said.
This aid, they added, can come in the form of training for the force to be formed by this committee, along with providing it with equipment to preserve Gaza’s security and rebuild its civilian institutions.
“The return of the PA to Gaza will contribute to fulfilling the Palestinian dream of establishing an independent state,” Palestinian international relations professor, Osama Shaath, told TNA.
“Israel has always claimed that it can’t find a negotiating partner that controls all Palestinian territories, but PA presence in Gaza will nullify all Israeli justifications for not negotiating a final settlement with the Palestinians,” he added.
