A ceasefire agreement in Gaza is finally here, announced in Doha to the joyous relief of the two million Palestinian civilians who have so far survived the genocidal Israeli war.
But what was declared was for all intents and purposes a framework agreement, and the only details that are clear pertain to phase one of the deal, which is complex and has many potentially dangerous traps.
The agreement was crafted as a gradual three-phased process requiring continuous negotiations between Hamas and Israel through mediators, starting on day 16 of the first phase.
That means that a breakdown in talks could happen at any time, which keeps the possibility of a return to the nightmare of wholesale slaughter very real. This possibility is further highlighted by the demand of Bezalel Smotrich, a key Netanyahu ally, toguarantee a return to war upon the conclusion of phase one.
Therefore, the verbal commitments of the mediators that there would be no return to fighting don’t inspire enough confidence for full celebrations just yet.
Phase one of the agreement will span over 42 days. During that time, Israel will gradually withdraw from the Gaza Strip and allow the entry of 600 trucks of humanitarian aid a day, which is crucial to alleviating some of the immense suffering and engineered starvation in Gaza.
During this phase, Hamas will gradually release an agreed-on number of Israeli captives while Israel releases hundreds of Palestinian detainees and captives, including women and children and Palestinians abducted from Gaza after 7 October 2023. The fate of the remaining Israeli captives will depend on the success of negotiations in phases two and three of the agreement.
This ceasefire could have been reached last May, sparing thousands of lives, as the blueprint of the agreement is almost identical to what Hamas agreed to in the summer of 2024. Netanyahu rejected the deal, and, by his own admission, Israel’s Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir has also derailed multiple attempts at a ceasefire. This time around, however, he seems unable to achieve the same result on his own.
But it is Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, who is by far the most obstinate obstacle that mediators have faced, until a combination of “gifts” andbullying tactics by incoming US President Donald Trump were in play, who also made use of overwhelmingsupport among the public in Israel for ending the genocidal war.
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The ceasefire announcement will not stop the killing, even when the agreement takes effect on Sunday. The apocalyptic situation in Gaza will persist and continue to claim lives unless and until a sustained influx of assistance is guaranteed, including the establishment of field hospitals and the reconstruction and re-equipping of destroyed hospitals across the enclave.
At least one million people are waiting to return to their neighbourhoods in Gaza City and northern Gaza. This is welcome news. But with92% of homes decimated or damaged, returning the forcibly displaced is a mammoth task.
There are also practical issues that remain unclear in this regard, including information on monitoring the return of the forcibly displaced to the north, as well as the simple yet essential task of clearing roads, dismantling unexploded ordinances, and providing the returnees with shelter and basic services.
Other issues will be a lot more complex, yet critical, to social cohesion moving forward. Namely, retrieving the remains of at least 11,000 victims buried under the rubble and identifying them accurately, in addition to ascertaining the fate of thousands of Palestinians who are still missing. It could take months or even years to collect verified data on their fate.
Without such an endeavour, society in Gaza will be entangled with explosive issues related to inheritance and ownership, child custody, and much more. This is not a sentimental issue but is urgent and fundamental.
The framework agreement of the ceasefire, and several US officials, point to the reconstruction of Gaza in phase three as requiring three to five years, but this is very optimistic.
The United Nations and other experts estimate it could take up to 15 years just to remove the debris, while reconstruction costs are estimated to be as high as $80 billion, in what would be the largest rebuilding effort since World War II.
This urgent task is not just because of the obvious practical and political reasons but also because the environmental damage caused by Israel’s war poses a risk to human health and long-term recovery, according to experts.
This enormous task has been pushed to phase three of the agreement to avoid a complete breakdown of the talks. But the question remains: who will take on this epic task, and how?
Other questions must also be answered. What will be the relationship between Gaza and the rest of the occupied Palestinian territory? What is the role of the Palestinian Authority? And equally important, what is the future of Hamas?
The enormous influence of the US and Israel notwithstanding, Palestinians hold the key to the way forward. Palestinian political actors must rise to the level of historic responsibility that is required.
They need to craft a Palestinian re-imagining of a unified political system capable of charting a path towards freedom. Remaining divided will only serve the Israeli right’s goal of Palestine’s political and material erasure and reducing the Palestinian issue to a humanitarian one.
The ceasefire is not the end of the road. It is a necessary beginning. Israel’s illegal occupation must end, and war criminals must be held accountable. That is, in short, what needs to happen to ensure that the genocide does not resume, or ever repeat.
Nour Odeh is a political analyst, public diplomacy consultant, and an award-winning journalist.
Follow her on Twitter: @nour_odeh
