Shortly after Donald Trump takes office for a second term, it will become clear whether his strategy for picking loyalists will help usher in his agenda or backfire due to his cabinet’s lack of relevant experience.
On 20 January, Trump is being sworn in again after a four-year hiatus during which he was charged with multiple crimes and became a convicted felon, in part due to those once close to him who spoke out.Â
Unsurprisingly, this time around, Trump has decided to pick a team of loyalists in what appears to be a way to avoid dissent and help him push through his sweeping agenda.
Based on his campaign speeches, this will include mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, reinstituting and expanding the Muslim travel ban, and the pardoning of 6 January insurrectionists from Joe Biden’s election certification four years ago.
“The American people have given us their trust, and in return, we’re going to give them the best first day, the biggest first week and the most extraordinary first 100 days of any presidency in American history,” Trump told a crowd on Sunday, on the eve of his inauguration.
Bluster or big plans?
For his base, his ambitious array of executive orders could be a dream come true, while for his opponents it could be the nightmare they’ve been dreading since he launched his first campaign a decade ago.
Realistically, however, how far can he go in carrying out his promises?
With more than 50 executive orders (with some reports putting the number at around 100) on the table for inauguration day, it’s unclear how Trump will get everything done at once. This might not be the worst scenario for his opponents, says Richard Groper, a lecturer in political science at California State University in Los Angeles.
“A lot of people assume he’ll get what he wants. He will not. He’ll be up against lawsuits,” Groper tells The New Arab. “If he tries to do too much, it will blow up in his face and he’ll get nothing done.”
The political science lecturer is relatively confident in the slowness of the US government with its checks and balances. “I believe the inertia of the government can slow things down.”
On the other hand, he thinks that if Trump chooses two or three items on his agenda, he has a much higher chance of successfully getting them passed than if he tries to do a hundred.
|
|
No longer a novice
One thing working in Trump’s favour is that as a second-term president, he is no longer learning on the job. After his first stint, he appears to be choosing loyalists (or at least those loyal to his agenda) over public servants experienced in their relevant fields.
In his first term, he saw multiple members of his team resign, while others spoke out against him, taking the roles of what was described at the time as the “adults in the room”. To save himself from embarrassment, he would need to choose so-called yes-men.
Among some of his more controversial picks is Pete Hegseth, the presumptive nominee for Secretary of Defence. The longtime Fox News host and military veteran who served in Iraq and at Guantanamo Bay was recently grilled in the Senate over some of his more inflammatory statements and positions.
He has said women shouldn’t serve in combat roles and has blamed diversity for a decline in Western civilisation.Â
More concerning for those fearing a loss in democracy is Hegseth’s unflinching loyalty to Trump, who has said that he would want to use the US military to quell domestic dissent, something he had reportedly wanted to implement in his first term against Black Lives Matter protesters. Not only would this redirect resources away from national security, but it would be unconstitutional.
Another controversial Trump pick is Pam Bondi for Attorney General. Bondi, who replaced Matt Gaetz as Trump’s pick for the position, served on his impeachment defence team in 2020 and is also an outspoken election denier.
Tech billionaire Elon Musk, tapped to help lead the to-be-formed Department of Government Efficiency, is generally seen as getting his position because of his massive donations (more than $250 million) to Trump’s presidential campaign. Amid rumours of a power struggle between Musk and Trump, it remains to be seen how long Musk’s loyalty will last.Â
“That’s one of the big differences this time. He probably feels some of the more traditional Republicans or non-MAGA members of his administration worked against him or undercut him last time. So, he’s trying to fix that,” J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, tells TNA.Â
“He was an insurgent in 2016, but he’s since remade the party in his image, so he can be more choosy this time. Perhaps with all the yes-men, his administration will at least be more organised this time,” he says.
“What’s also going to be interesting is how he handles some of the ‘tech bros’ like Musk who have come aboard more recently. We saw with the H-1B episode there could be some potential for friction with the MAGA base,” he added.
His team of loyalists also extends to foreign policy positions, with a new class of diplomats holding hardline conservative positions on the Middle East, along with fundamental Christian views of Israel.
In addition to the high-profile loyalists, a key part of the transition plan is to implement Project 2025 (something Trump denied knowing about, though it was led by members of the team from his first administration), which replaces skilled civil servants with loyalists.Â
|
|
Waiting and watching history unfold
Other countries that lost their functioning democracies, such as Hungary under Victor Orban, underwent a similar reconfiguration with their civil servants, though it remains to be seen if the same thing would happen in the US.
For now, many observers are unsure what to predict, given the unprecedented nature of Trump’s improbable comeback.
Can bureaucracy or organised opposition save democracy? It’s unclear at this point. So far, the signs don’t look good for those opposed to Trump’s agenda.
A fractured Democratic Party with no clear leadership, Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress, a conservative-majority Supreme Court, and a team of loyalists at the executive level.
With the loyalists working on the inside, who will be the so-called adults in the room?
Brooke Anderson is The New Arab’s correspondent in Washington DC, covering US and international politics, business and culture.
Follow her on Twitter:Â @Brookethenews
