What happens next in the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal?

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The breakthrough ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas has so far brought the release of three Israeli hostages in exchange for 90 Palestinian prisoners, but the multi-stage deal is still in its fragile infancy.

In the first phase, lasting 42 days, both sides will engage in a “full and complete ceasefire”, former US President Joe Biden said when he confirmed the deal last week.

In addition to the release of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for a total of nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, it will include the gradual withdrawal of Israeli troops from parts of Gaza as well as an influx of humanitarian aid.

While questions remain about which of the hostages slated for release will be returned to Israel in the next exchange – Hamas says that four women will be freed on January 25 – the deal stipulates that children, women and non-combatants get priority. 

Reports indicate that four of the 33 – which include women, children and men over 50 – will be freed that day, and the remaining 26 over the following five weeks. Israel believes most of these hostages are alive, according to recent reports.

Many are anxiously awaiting news of the Bibas family, all of whom are among those listed for release – including Kfir Bibas, who was just nine months old when kidnapped on October 7 – but their wellbeing is unknown.

The experiences of the hostages so far released, including British-Israeli Emily Damari, 28, Doron Steinbrecher, 31, and Romi Gonen, 24, indicate what to expect in the upcoming weeks. Their heartwarming reunions with family members offered a glimpse of hope scarcely seen in 15 months.

On Sunday, the first day of the agreement, the three women were handed over to Red Cross officials in Gaza before being transferred to an Israeli hospital where they will remain to undergo medical and psychological treatment.

Early Monday morning, the first 90 Palestinian prisoners were released, 69 of whom are women and the remainder teenage boys. As part of the agreement, 737 prisoners will be liberated during the first phase of ceasefire in return for the hostages, and a total of 1,904 prisoners are due for release over the course of the entire deal. The number of Palestinians released each week will depend on whether the corresponding hostages are civilians or soldiers.

Among those released Monday was Khalida Jarrar, a leader in the left-wing Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. Jarrar, 62, was elected to the PLC in 2006 and has continued to serve as an elected representative much of the last decade despite being in and out of Israeli prison. In recent years she has been held mainly without formal charges.

However, according to the Israeli Ministry of Justice, over 40 per cent of Palestinian prisoners due for release are members of Hamas, and 83.4 per cent have been convicted for their crimes, some serving multiple life sentences for terrorist activity and murder.

Seventy-eight of the released Palestinians were reportedly taken to the West Bank town of Beitunia, where they were greeted by a cheering crowd waving Hamas, Fatah, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah flags. The remaining 12 East Jerusalem residents were transported and released back in Jerusalem.

Other developments outlined in the plan, which was brokered by American, Qatari and Egyptian mediators, have already begun to unfold.

Israeli troops have started withdrawing from “all” populated areas of Gaza, according to Biden, while Palestinians displaced from their homes due to Israeli airstrikes are free to return to their neighbourhoods in “all the areas of Gaza.”

According to the BBC Israel will permit Hamas police to operate in their official uniforms – though without weapons – within designated areas of the Gaza Strip once the ceasefire takes effect, overseeing the movement of displaced people from southern Gaza to the north. From day seven of the ceasefire, displaced people will be allowed to move freely around the Palestinian territory.

Meanwhile, Israeli forces will maintain a security presence along the eastern and northern borders of the Strip.

United Nations officials said on Sunday that more than 630 trucks carrying humanitarian aid have entered the Gaza Strip as part of the ceasefire deal, and a further 600 truckloads are due to arrive each day of the arrangement bearing food and fuel. According to Tom Fletcher, UN under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs, at least 300 of the trucks will be allocated to bringing humanitarian aid into the north.

The second and third stages of the agreement remain hazy, leading to fear that the ceasefire may be fractured following the initial six weeks. Internal disputes within the Israeli government, including over Israel’s decision to withdraw troops from the Strip, may also create obstacles to achieving a long-term ceasefire.

According to AP, the third week of the ceasefire will push for both parties to negotiate the logistics of stage two of the agreement, which would reportedly aim to end the war altogether.

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