How do you govern a country you never expected to rule? That is the question now facing Syria’s transitional government, as it seeks to undo half a century of kleptocratic Baathist misrule following a stunning rebel offensive in late 2024 that saw the Assad regime fall.
The current administration is dominated by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) figures, an organisation sanctioned by the US and EU due to its former links to Al-Qaeda, while Donald Trump’s election win has created a tumultuous and opaque new world, with likely repercussions for Syria.
Still, few could deny that things in Syria are on a better track with Bashar Al-Assad gone, a leader reliant on drug production and fleecing Syrians at home and abroad for income, and whose methods of governance relied on instilling fear in the population and patronage.
Among the current jubilation and relief, many Syrians are still taking a sober and cautious assessment of the new administration, headed by HTS leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa, who proclaimed himself transitional president on Wednesday, knowing that Syria’s laundry list of problems is long but at least they have a stake in the future of the country.
“There hasn’t been an immediate improvement in services and infrastructure due to the financial difficulties, but now that corruption by regime cronies has been reduced it actually helps locals leading the efforts to improve their conditions with the help of the government,” Suhail Al-Ghazi, a Syrian researcher, told The New Arab.Â
“However, it’s a long way to bring a change that would affect people’s lives.”Â
Euphoria
Al-Sharaa is still riding high on a wave of jubilation garnered by his key role in toppling Assad, making him something of a Che Guevara-like figure among some Syrians with odes penned about him and his picture adorning many social media profiles.
But ultimately his future rests on improving living conditions and security for all Syrians, as well as enhancing political plurality – measures that could give Syrians hope for the future, and lead to an end of US and EU sanctions.
“I would say the absence of the corrupt ruthless security sector and the ability of a more unified society, in addition to the current optimism after decades of corruption and oppression, gives Syrians some hope,” Ghazi said.
“I’ve been very impressed with [HTS’s] readiness when they captured many areas before the fall of the regime, but the lack of transparency when it comes to the next steps about more inclusive transitional government is not ideal and this uncertainty isn’t helping to stabilise Syria.”
Al-Sharaa has offered little in the way of a roadmap out of the muddle, and few know what shape or form governance will take; whether it will be an Islamic-style consultative assembly or full parliamentary democracy is unknown.
Every appearance by Al-Sharaa is met with anticipation that he will finally give a date for a national congress with other opposition figures or outline a process for a new constitution, but the result is often deflation, confusion, or backlash.
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Added to this are the dividing lines in Syria; the northeast remains in the hands of the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who show no signs of integrating into the new Syrian state. Non-HTS rebel groups, such as the Syrian National Army (SNA) in the north and southern factions in Daraa, appear to operate with a sense of autonomy and impunity that might make them vulnerable to hijack by outside parties, warlords, or extremists.
One path out of this conundrum touted by Syrians is a decentralised state, a novel experiment for Syrians who have endured five decades of statist Baathist rule and something that Syrian civil society and local opposition councils have considerable experience in during the 13-year war.
It could enable the efficient and targeted distribution of resources and services, and according to many political theorists, would be a surefire way to reduce opportunities for corruption and engage with local communities, particularly minority groups.
“The most important thing is how the government is giving more power to locals to govern their areas, we are seeing a lot of involvement from local councils and people are optimistic about it,” said Al-Ghazi.
“Of course, Syrian civil society is now free of the regime’s strict rules and able to bypass the sanctions and bring a lot of opportunities to local communities in terms of aid, infrastructure, and education services.”
Outreach
Despite HTS’s past autocratic and extremist tendencies, Al-Sharaa has made some outreach to the broader opposition and Syrian diaspora, bursting with technocrats and business figures eager to play their part in the country’s development.
One of the first tasks appears to be working on removing sanctions that have crippled everyday life for Syrians with foreign bank cards not working, money transfers barred, and even some email accounts inaccessible, a huge burden for aid groups and businesses looking to work inside Syria.
The EU appears to understand that Syria’s future relies on these sanctions being lifted to provide economic stability and links to the outside world, essential for democratic transition and ensuring more extremist elements don’t commandeer the political process.
This week, EU diplomats said the bloc would take a step-by-step approach to lifting financial penalties, contingent on certain political progress being made, with the banking, energy, and transport sectors the first to benefit from sanctions relief.
This will be essential to rebuilding Syria, with the cost of reconstruction from the war estimated to be in the range of $150 billion, according to Karam Shaar, director of Karam Shaar Advisory Limited.
“They do appreciate they need a lot of technical expertise and they are trying to reach out to various stakeholders and technical experts to seek their input, and they also appreciate that this is not a magic wand, it requires a lot of planning and data gathering,” said Shaar, Â
“However, I generally do feel they have a strong preference for prioritising their own technocrats from the Salvation Government in Idlib; this is understandable given they need the initial [governance] steps they take, for good or for bad, to be solid and in unity, which is why they need people from similar backgrounds in government.”
Political development
Many Syrians complain that the focus of the new administration is on the outside world not domestically, with Al-Sharaa appearing to prioritise foreign media over local journalists, meeting with foreign dignitaries instead of Syrian political figures, and ministers planning overseas trips to Riyadh and Ankara rather than the provinces of Syria.
Few deny there is an urgent need to engage with outside parties in this critical stage of Syria’s future, but this should not mean other Syrians are sidelined from the process, they say.
After years in exile, Dima Moussa, vice-president of the Syrian National Coalition, noted that opposition figures and bodies are beginning to return to Syria, and helping to diversify and cultivate the political landscape in Damascus, something it is hoped will eventually translate to plurality in government.
“Having arrived here a couple of weeks after the fall of the regime myself, I have noticed an abundance of events, seminars, and discussion sessions, in public places and forums, with a large number of people in attendance,” Moussa told The New Arab.
“For me, what has been most impressive is the large number of young people at these events, showing interest in political issues, posing very sophisticated questions, and making politically mature comments. There is a lot of interest, and thirst for engaging in political life, and activism in general.”
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National Conference
Still, there has been limited engagement with Syrians and domestic political groups by the current administration and questions over the date and shape of the much-touted National Conference, which is intended to create a channel for dialogue among diverse political and civil society groups regarding the future of the country.
An essential step toward this will be the creation of a politically, gender, and religiously diverse caretaken government when the current transitional administration steps down (slated for March) with ministerial appointments based on merit and qualifications for the job, Moussa said.
Issues of national importance, such as the fate of missing detainees, also need the involvement of those outside the corridors of power in Damascus, particularly direct stakeholders such as victims of torture and families of the disappeared, she added.
“Of course, after nearly 14 years of a vicious crisis that has affected all aspects of life in Syria and left the state paralysed, there are certain things that would send good messages, including becoming more open to the various political forces and trying to benefit from all the expertise Syrians possess that could help in running state institutions,” said Moussa.
“A more diverse caretaker government would send the message that ‘things are different now’, and comfort some of the uncertainties and fears some people still rightfully have.
“A transparent process including clear criteria is necessary; I think this should happen a few weeks ago, but it will clearly become necessary very soon.”
Paul McLoughlin is the Head of News at The New ArabÂ
Follow him on Twitter:Â @PaullMcLoughlin
