As violations continue, will Israel resume its war on Gaza?

Tensions in the Gaza Strip are reaching a critical point, threatening a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Accusations of violations are being claimed by both sides, in addition to delays in prisoner exchanges and an inflammatory warning from US President Donald Trump, all cast a dark shadow over the possibility of lasting peace. 

While the precarious situation unfolds, Gaza’s people find themselves once again at the mercy of geopolitical forces beyond their control.

Since the ceasefire deal was declared three weeks ago, Gaza has experienced relative calm, interrupted by sporadic violations by Israel. 

The truce initially brought hope to civilians weary of war, with provisions set for prisoner exchanges: Hamas was to release Israeli captives in exchange for hundreds of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. This process has now come to a standstill.

On Monday, Hamas announced the postponement of a scheduled captive release, citing Israel’s repeated violations of the ceasefire terms. 

In a press statement, Hamas stressed that the delay was a “warning message” intended to pressure Israel into full compliance.

A fragile ceasefire

According to Hamas, Israeli breaches include obstructing the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza, targeting civilians with gunfire and shelling, and hindering the entry of essential humanitarian aid. Shelter materials, fuel, and medical supplies remain scarce, exacerbating a dire humanitarian crisis. 

Hamas stressed that it has upheld its obligations under the agreement, while Israel has failed to do the same.

“We have meticulously adhered to every condition of the ceasefire,” Hamas said. “Yet, the occupation continues its violations without consequences.”

In January, Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire to end 15 months of conflict. The agreement is structured in three phases, each lasting 42 days. 

In the first phase, Hamas committed to releasing 33 Israeli captives, including women, children under 19, individuals over 50, and female soldiers. 

If the number of living captives in these categories is less than 33, the remains of deceased individuals would be provided to meet the total. 

In exchange, Israel agreed to release up to 1,904 Palestinian prisoners, including 737 serving life sentences. 

Additionally, Israel would allow the entry of 600 trucks of humanitarian aid daily into Gaza, facilitate the return of displaced Palestinians to their homes, and gradually withdraw troops from some regions of the Gaza Strip. A daily pause in military flights over Gaza for 10 to 12 hours was also part of this phase.

However, Israel has not abided by the ceasefire deal, and has not allowed more than 200 trucks to enter Gaza daily. Moreover, it has restricted the patients’ travel through the Rafah borders. 

So far, Israel prevents the entry of heavy equipment into the Gaza Strip to remove rubble, as well as sufficient quantities of humanitarian aid to suffice the local population.

For its part, Israel denies these accusations and argues that Hamas is using the ceasefire as a “strategic tool”.

 In response to Hamas’s postponement of the prisoner exchange, Israeli officials claimed that the move was a “flagrant violation” of the agreement.

The Israeli media outlets reported that the military’s Southern Command has been placed on high alert, with forces instructed to prepare for an imminent resumption of hostilities. 

The Israeli Defence Minister has ordered the army to maintain heightened readiness, warning of potential large-scale military action should negotiations collapse, according to Israeli media outlets. 

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has added fuel to the fire. In an aggressive statement, he issued an ultimatum to Hamas, demanding the immediate release of all hostages by noon on Saturday.

“If all prisoners are not released by noon on Saturday, I will cancel the ceasefire and let all hell break loose,” Trump declared on Monday night.

His remarks have sparked concerns that the US administration is giving Israel the green light to escalate military operations, disregarding the devastating impact this would have on civilians.

Looming threat of war

A Palestinian political analyst in Gaza, Hussam Al-Dajani, warns that the ceasefire agreement is hanging by a thread.

“The fragility of this ceasefire means war is always just one step away,” al-Dajani told The New Arab. “Trump’s statements empower the Israeli far-right, giving them justification to expand military action in Gaza.”

However, Al-Dajani pointed out internal factors that may deter Israel from launching a full-scale attack. 

“These include the presence of Israeli captives still held in Gaza, growing public pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the possibility that Israel may opt for a political strategy rather than a renewed military offensive,” he said. 

Similarly, Palestinian political analyst Hani Al-Masry underscores the deep-seated mistrust between the two sides.

“The lack of trust and the continued violations make it clear that the agreement is hanging by a thread. If a diplomatic breakthrough is not reached soon, the conflict will inevitably reignite,” al-Masry remarked to TNA. 

Al-Masry also believes Trump‘s threats could backfire, leading Hamas to adopt an even more rigid stance.

“Trump’s remarks put Hamas in a position where conceding would appear as a weakness. This could prolong the stalemate instead of resolving it,” he added. 

Beyond the political chess game, the people of Gaza remain trapped in a relentless cycle of uncertainty, longing for a normal life.

“We are exhausted,” Ekram Ibrahim, a mother from Gaza City, lamented to TNA. “Every time there’s a truce violation, we fear it means another war. We just want to live in peace, but it seems like no one cares about our suffering,” the 42-year-old mother of four said. 

The uncertainty of the ceasefire has also created a climate of fear among families in Gaza.

“Whenever we hear about a breach of the truce, we fear for our children’s future,” Khitam Abu Lida, a woman based in Rafah, told TNA. 

 “We hope for a peaceful solution, but history has taught us not to expect much,” she said. 

Salem Abu Jaber, another resident in Gaza, views the situation more broadly. “The war on Gaza is not just military. It is political, economic, and psychological,” he said to TNA. 

“Israel and the US want to strangle Gaza through siege and deprivation, making life here unbearable so that we are forced to leave. But we will never abandon our land,” he added. 

As tensions rise, the future of Gaza remains unclear. Will the ceasefire hold, or will war resume, bringing another chapter of devastation to the people of the besieged enclave? 

“The answer lies in the hands of international mediators, who must act swiftly and decisively to prevent a return to bloodshed,” Rawan al-Amasi, a woman based in Gaza, told TNA. 

“A real commitment from both parties, coupled with serious diplomatic efforts, is the only way to prevent another humanitarian catastrophe. The people of Gaza, exhausted by war and displacement, can only hope that this time, their voices will not be drowned out by the sound of bombs,” she said.