Iran-backed armed factions in Iraq had announced a cessation of attacks on Israeli targets following the Hamas-Israel truce that was declared on 19 January. [Getty]
Iraqi experts warn that if the fragile Gaza ceasefire deal collapses, Iran-backed militias in Iraq could resume attacks on US and Israeli targets in the region, leading to a significant escalation.Â
The warnings come in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s latest ultimatum, in which he threatened that “all hell” would break out if Israeli captives held by Hamas were not released by Saturday.
Iran-backed armed factions in Iraq had announced a cessation of attacks on Israeli targets in the pre-1948 Palestinian territories following the Hamas-Israel truce launched on 19 January. However, Iraqi experts told The New Arab that these militias are prepared to resume attacks should Israel revoke the ceasefire.
On Monday, Trump issued a Saturday noon deadline for the release of all Israeli captives held in Gaza, warning that if this did not happen, he would support the cancellation of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire.
Trump’s latest intervention in the Middle East came after Hamas signalled that it might delay further hostage exchanges, citing Israeli violations of the truce.Â
Fallout in Iraq
Ihsan Al-Shammari, a professor of strategic and international studies at the University of Baghdad and head of the Political Thinking Center, told TNAÂ that Trump’s statements heightened tensions across the region.
“This brings back the atmosphere of war in the region. The situation is escalating, especially since Hamas has not handed over the remaining hostages—whether alive or deceased,” he said. “This will likely push Israel, backed by US support, to suspend the truce and resume airstrikes.”
Al-Shammari added that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was deeply dissatisfied with the way the hostage releases had been handled, viewing them as a humiliation for Israel and proof that Hamas remains “a strong and operational force.”
The academic also warned that any renewal of hostilities would likely provoke Iran into action, justifying it to revive its anti-Israel rhetoric.
“Iran currently fears the possibility of an Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities if no agreement is reached on its nuclear programme, ballistic missiles, and weapons capabilities,” he explained. “If Iran does not turn inward and limit its regional ambitions, an American-Israeli alliance against it could become inevitable.”
As a result, Al-Shammari believes Iran will mobilise its regional proxies, with Iraqi militias playing a significant role in any confrontation. He noted that several armed factions in Iraq have already refused to disband or integrate into the state security forces, challenging the authority of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani.
“The Iraqi government has no power over these militias,” he said. “Hence, these factions are likely to resume attacks on the US bases in Iraq and Syria, escalate strikes inside Israel, and provide significant support to the Houthis in Yemen to resume their operations in the Bab Al-Mandab strait.”
Regional implications
Iraqi political and security analyst Ghani Ghadban also spoke to TNA, stating that Trump‘s threats were explicit in granting Israel free rein to act militarily if hostages were not released.
“Trump’s threats are clear—if the hostages are not released within the specified timeframe, he will grant full authority to the Zionist entity and consider the ceasefire null and void,” Ghadban said.
He added that Iraq would inevitably be drawn into the consequences, as some factions might retaliate by targeting US interests or launching drone attacks on Israeli targets.
“The Zionist entity has already identified 38 targets inside Iraq linked to armed factions,” Ghadban explained. “If the ceasefire is cancelled and these militias engage in their attacks, we could see airstrikes targeting weapons depots, strategic sites, and possibly even individuals.”
He hoped that the Palestinian groups to adhere to the agreed-upon terms for hostage releases to prevent further escalation.
“We hope this scenario does not unfold, and we hope the Palestinians adhere to the agreed-upon terms for releasing the hostages as scheduled,” he said. “Otherwise, we risk returning to an era of instability and fear, with increasing regional tensions.”
Ghadban also suggested that Iraqi militias may see the cancellation of the Gaza ceasefire deal as a starting point to justify resuming their attacks and existence and resistance to efforts of integration into Iraq‘s formal security forces.
As the Saturday deadline approaches, the risk of renewed conflict across the region remains high, with Iraq likely to find itself once again at the centre of an escalating crisis.
