An Israeli website has published a hypothetical military scenario exploring how a strike on Egypt’s High Dam could unfold in the event of war, sparking outrage among Arab nations and further fuelling tensions between Cairo and Tel Aviv.
The Nziv website, which focuses on military analysis, described a scenario in which bunker-penetrating missiles and advanced weaponry could be used to demolish or partially collapse the High Dam, leading to catastrophic flooding.
It claimed that within minutes, millions of cubic meters of water would surge down the Nile Valley, flooding areas such as Luxor and Aswan and destroying infrastructure.
According to the Nziv report, a collapse of the dam could wipe out military bases and industrial facilities, submerging vast areas and killing thousands in the first few hours – particularly in rural regions.
Cairo, a city of over 20 million people, would be thrown into a state of emergency, the report speculated.
Nziv estimated that the minimum death toll would be 1.7 million if there were an early warning and some level of crisis management.
However, it warned that casualties could reach 10.5 million if the collapse occurred without preparation, leading to famine, disease, and total state failure.
Although Nziv’s article was purely theoretical, it triggered a wave of alarm in Arabic media, with several outlets framing it as an Israeli plan to attack Egypt.
The report triggered angry reactions with many perceiving it as a deliberate threat amid worsening tensions over Israel’s war in Gaza.
Several Egyptian and pan-Arab media outlets reported that Israeli media had published a “plan to hit the High Dam” in case a war broke out with Egypt.
Some reported that the discussion of such a scenario was “unprecedented and serious escalation”.
The High Dam in Aswan is one of Egypt’s most critical infrastructure projects, built during the presidency of Gamal Abdel Nasser with Soviet assistance.
It plays a key role in regulating Nile water flow, preventing devastating floods, and supplying electricity across the country.
The dam is owned and operated by the General Authority for the High Dam and Aswan Reservoir.
While Nziv’s report was speculative, the strong reaction from Arab media reflects deep-seated distrust of Israel, particularly as relations between the two countries deteriorate over the war in Gaza.
Egypt has condemned Israel’s military assault on Gaza, refused to cooperate with US-Israeli plans for the displacement of Palestinians into Sinai, and clashed diplomatically with Tel Aviv over the worsening humanitarian crisis in the Palestinian strip.
Military expert Mahmoud Kbeir dismissed the speculation, telling Al-Arabiya TV that “these irresponsible and farcical statements should not be heeded at all”.
While Egyptian Major General Osama Mahmoud Kbeir told the outlet that the report was “absurd statements… that should not be taken seriously”.
