Amid a sea of crimson and white flags, Lebanon’s former prime minister Saad Hariri spoke to thousands of gleeful supporters on Friday to commemorate the 20th anniversary of his father Rafic Hariri’s assassination.
“We came down today to see the best man in the entire world,” says Zeinab, 12. “I love you, Saad. You are the foundation of our nation.”
During the speech, he announced that the Future Movement, the party established by his father that represents the dominant political force in Lebanon’s Sunni politics, would “be your voice in all national milestones and upcoming events,” ending a three-year suspension of activity for Lebanon’s largest Sunni party.
Such an announcement has been long awaited by many within the disaffected Sunni community in recent years and may signal a renewed engagement by the Hariri family’s patrons in the Gulf with Lebanon’s politics.
The prodigal son
Saad Hariri’s importance, and in large part, his popularity, stems from the legacy of his father, Rafic Hariri. A colossus of Lebanese politics, he was widely credited with constructing the 1989 Taif Agreement with the support of Saudi Arabia, which ended Lebanon’s bitter 15-year civil war, and rebuilding much of the country’s destroyed infrastructure.
Rafic established the Future Movement in 1995, which, with the backing of the Gulf states, quickly developed into the preeminent Sunni political party in Lebanon.
However, on 14 February 2005, a car bomb killed Rafic, alongside 22 others, in an assassination that a 2014 UN Special Investigation found could likely be attributed to Syria and Hezbollah.
The subsequent Cedar Revolution ended the almost three-decade-long Syrian occupation and placed Saad Hariri centre stage as his father’s presumptive political successor.
Saad subsequently served as prime minister three times. However, he ran afoul of his Saudi patrons in 2017, who, frustrated at his failure to combat Hezbollah’s growing political dominance, placed him under house arrest during a visit to Riyadh, forcing him to publicly resign – a move he would later renounce.
Then in 2019, at the height of Lebanon’s revolution, he resigned as prime minister, officially stepping away from politics in 2022, signalling to the Future Movement to cease all activity. Now residing in Abu Dhabi, he has only returned in subsequent years to pray at his father’s grave on the anniversary of his assassination.
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A conciliatory approach
The return of the Future Movement was undoubtedly discussed and approved by the Gulf states, marking a shift in policy, particularly for Riyadh. According to Karim Bitar, a lecturer in Middle East Studies at Sciences Po Paris, Riyadh “would have at least provided an orange light” to the Future Movement’s return to politics.
In recent years, infuriated by Lebanon’s sclerotic reform process and the growing dominance of Hezbollah, Saudi has all but abandoned the Lebanon file.
Yet, it appears the Saudi position has now “softened,” says Bitar, as Riyadh senses an opportunity in the wake of Hezbollah’s defeat in the recent war with Israel. However, Saudi engagement remains tentative.
During his address, Saad maintained a conciliatory tone. Speaking directly to Lebanon’s Shia community, he said, “We must break with the impression that you are a force of obstruction and domination. You are key partners in restoring the legitimacy of the state”.
According to Bitar, this tone is consistent with his political tendencies, in which he seeks to “maintain cordial relationships with all factions as a means to build bridges and achieve consensus”.
However, such a strategy resulted in Saad’s rather unceremonious falling out with the Saudi royal family in 2017, and his commitment to such a consensual strategy may alienate his backers in the Gulf.
During the speech, Saad refrained from announcing his much-anticipated personal comeback to politics. With the Saudis still maintaining an informal veto over his return, this signals that while they see a renewed Future Movement as beneficial, they still don’t trust Saad Hariri as the right man for the job.
Reform
According to David Wood, a Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, the Gulf has clearly maintained a position vis-à-vis Lebanon that “they are willing to help Lebanon if Lebanon is willing to help itself”.
The Gulf is seeking progress on much-needed structural reform in Lebanon as a prerequisite for support. As a result, approving the reawakening of the Future Movement may be a sign that it is hedging its bets regarding the best pathway to achieve this.
The Saudi envoy to Lebanon, Prince Yazid bin Farhan, was central to getting the election of Joseph Aoun across the line, which is a “clear signal of support for the new government,” says Wood. However, the government’s reform agenda will face a severe uphill battle to show tangible results with only 15 months before the next election.
Subsequently, the Saudis may be looking at alternative actors that could buttress the reform agenda, as “there has been a considerable shift within the Sunni community towards disarming Hezbollah, with even vocally pro-Hezbollah contingents coming out in support of the new government,” says Wood.
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According to Michael Young, a senior editor at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, “Saad holds significant appeal to Lebanon’s Sunni population,” while the new prime minister, Nawaf Salam, being a political outsider, means he is not “a significant politician in terms of communal support at the grassroots”.
As a result, the Future Movement could be a beneficial tool in mobilising support ahead of the 2026 election.
However, regarding Lebanon’s much-needed economic reforms, things are far less clear-cut, as Saad is very much a creature of the system, and one of his “major failures” during his previous three terms was that “he didn’t push hard enough for economic reform,” says Young.
A Sunni renaissance
The renewal of the Future Movement could reverse a general Sunni “disillusionment and abstention” from politics, says Bitar, which resulted in “the fracturing of the Sunni vote, as no other figure emerged capable of mobilizing the masses”.
Subsequently, the Sunni community has found itself sidelined in Lebanese politics, unable to effectively leverage its relative demographic heft.
Yet Saad’s speech signals that the Future Movement will contest “all upcoming elections that may result in an electoral landslide [within the Sunni vote] in the 2026 parliamentary elections,” believes Bitar.
However, this will likely hinge upon two factors: the availability of funding for the Future Movement and the success of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in achieving his structural reform program.
The bonds between the Hariris and the Sunni electorate were forged not just as a result of Rafic’s political legacy but also due to Future’s role as a vehicle for “sophisticated social welfare programs and patronage” according to Wood, funded both through the Hariri family’s personal wealth and financial support from the Gulf.
However, during his speech, Saad remained vague about the particulars of the Future Movement’s reactivation, argues Hassan Kotob, a Lebanese analyst and manager of the Lebanese Center for Research, likely due to uncertainties around its ability to secure funding for its activities.
The role of the Future Movement could also depend on the success of Salam’s reform agenda. If he is deemed to have failed, the Sunni vote could more strongly coalesce around their traditional political vehicle, the Future Movement.
Kotob believes that Saad still retains a personal desire to take the premiership once again.
If he senses an opportunity to do so on the back of a buoyed Future Movement presence in parliament, he could do so even at the expense of Nawaf Salam.
This would not be without precedent in Lebanon. Between 1998 and 2000, Lebanon’s then-Prime Minister Salim Hoss built a reformist technocratic government similar to Salam’s.
However, he was unable to achieve much success within Lebanon’s miasmic politics, resulting in a landslide electoral victory in 2000 for the Future Movement under Rafic Hariri, effectively crowning him as the next prime minister.
Cian Ward is a journalist based in Beirut, covering conflict, migration, and humanitarian issues
Follow him on X: @CP__Ward
