Will Hamas give up power? The factors shaping Gaza’s future

Since Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip in 2007 it has remained the ruling authority, navigating countless military, political, and economic challenges. 

From its origins as a resistance movement, Hamas has evolved into a governing body amidst a lengthy Israeli blockade and repeated large-scale wars, the latest of which ended with a fragile ceasefire in January.

However, the question now looming is whether Hamas will consider relinquishing control of Gaza, either voluntarily or under growing external and internal pressure.

In light of significant shifts in the Palestinian political landscape, the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority (PA) view Hamas’s withdrawal from governance responsibilities as essential to achieving national unity between the West Bank and Gaza. 

The PA insists that any agreement for Hamas to step away from politics must include a complete handing over of state institutions in Gaza.

“The role of regional powers is crucial to any change in Gaza’s governance, but the competing interests of these powers make a sustainable solution difficult,” Adnan Abu Amer, a Palestinian political expert, told The New Arab. 

Post-war governance plans

For 15 months, the Israeli army launched a large-scale genocidal war on Gaza after Hamas-led Palestinian factions carried out a surprise attack on adjacent Israeli cities, killing 1,200 people, soldiers and civilians, and taking 250 captives.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long vowed that one of the aims of the war was to destroy Hamas and end its control of Gaza.

To this end, the Israeli army has laid waste to Gaza, destroying more than 85 percent of its buildings and leaving the territory uninhabitable. At least 48,500 Palestinians, including 17,000 children, have been killed, although the real number is thought to be considerably higher. Thousands of Hamas fighters, leaders, police, and lawmakers have died.

Given this destruction and the dire humanitarian crisis, it will be difficult for Hamas to control Gaza, as all it has left are its weapons, according to Talal Okal, a Palestinian political expert. 

But if Hamas were to step down, several governance models have already been proposed.

“The main alternatives include a National Unity government, a coalition including Hamas, Fatah, and other factions, under the supervision of the Palestinian Authority, focusing on rebuilding joint national institutions,” Okal said. 

The analyst added that the second alternative is “civil administration with international mediation that would involve an interim administration, perhaps led by technocrats to stabilise Gaza with international oversight”.

The third alternative is the return of the Palestinian Authority. “This would involve a new set of security arrangements to prevent a collapse in Gaza’s fragile security environment,” he explained. 

All of these scenarios, however, require Hamas to relinquish its current political dominance, at least temporarily, to allow for internal Palestinian reconciliation and the prioritisation of the Palestinian cause on the global stage.

Hamas’s changing stance on power

Many Hamas officials have already indicated that the movement is open to the idea of stepping down from power in Gaza, signalling a potential shift in strategy. 

“Hamas is not clinging to ruling Gaza after the war, and our priority remains the interests of the Palestinian people,” Mahmoud Mirdawi, a Turkey-based senior Hamas official, told TNA.

He further clarified that Hamas would be willing to transfer power to the Palestinian Authority, provided national rights are preserved.

This openness reflects the increasing pressure on Hamas from regional powers and international stakeholders. 

While Qatar, Iran, and Turkey have supported Hamas in the past, there is mounting international consensus on the need for the Palestinian Authority to regain control of Gaza.

Mukhaimer Abu Saada, a Gaza-based Palestinian political expert, told TNA that Hamas is under unprecedented pressure from all sides. 

“Hamas finds itself in a difficult position,” he says, balancing its political goals against increasing demands from both internal factions and external powers.

Any major shift in policy would require careful consideration, as it would have significant consequences both within Gaza and for Hamas’s political strategy.

But Israel’s position on Hamas complicates this. Throughout the war, the primary aim of Netanyahu was to eliminate Hamas and ensure it would never rule Gaza again.

This has been repeated consistently for the last 15 months, with senior Israeli ministers saying Hamas could face further military pressure or a return to war.

As a result, the group is faced with two bleak options: maintain its rule under siege or relinquish power.

A fragile future for Hamas in Gaza

Hamas’s popularity within Gaza is on the decline, complicating its grip on power. Recent polls reflect waning support for the movement among the population, primarily due to ongoing economic hardships and the devastating effects of Israel’s war.

A poll conducted in September 2024 revealed that only 39 per cent of Gazans supported Hamas’s actions against Israel, a sharp drop from previous support levels. 

Another earlier poll in March 2024 indicated that just 35 per cent of Gaza residents backed the movement, signalling growing discontent with Hamas’s leadership.

Hani al-Masri, a Palestinian political analyst, argues that this decline in popularity makes it increasingly likely that Hamas will consider stepping down or entering a coalition with other Palestinian factions. 

“Hamas cannot continue ruling over a population disillusioned with its leadership,” he told TNA. “But it will fight to remain part of the Palestinian political system.”

Despite Hamas’s claims of “victory” in its confrontations with Israel, military experts and analysts point to severe losses in both personnel and infrastructure. 

Israeli airstrikes have destroyed key Hamas military assets, including tunnels and weapons depots, significantly crippling its military capabilities.

The Gaza Strip is suffering from the consequences of this prolonged conflict, with humanitarian conditions deteriorating and the population growing increasingly frustrated with the ongoing military confrontation. 

“Economic crises, military pressures, and internal divisions within Hamas itself all weigh heavily on the movement’s ability to maintain its rule. The continuation of Palestinian political division only exacerbates these difficulties,” Abdul Majeed Abu Suwailem, a Palestinian political analyst, told TNA.

He believes that Hamas may eventually be forced to reconsider its leadership role in Gaza, emphasising that it would only make concessions if it receives guarantees to maintain its position in Palestinian politics.

International pressure: Trump and Netanyahu

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu have proposed radical ideas for ending Hamas’s rule. 

These include the dismantling of Hamas’s political and military structure, disarming the group, and imposing strict border controls to prevent weapons smuggling.

Both leaders have also proposed the forced displacement of Gaza’s 2.1 million population to regional countries as part of broader reconstruction efforts, a plan criticised as ethnic cleansing and breaking with longstanding international policy on Palestine.

These proposals highlight a shift in US and Israeli policy towards more aggressive military and economic strategies rather than seeking a diplomatic solution to the Palestinian question. Hamas, Arab states, and the international community have vehemently rejected the displacement of Palestinians.

Military and economic strains, declining popularity, and international demands contribute to a growing need for strategic reconsideration on Hamas’s part.

This could lead to the group eventually relinquishing some of its authority in Gaza, but such a decision will require careful negotiation to protect its interests in the broader Palestinian political landscape.

Meanwhile, under President Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority has signalled its intent to regain control of Gaza, emphasising that a legitimate government must lead any reconstruction efforts in the besieged territory. Israel has rejected this idea, opposing the PA’s return.

As a result, amid constantly evolving political, military, and economic dynamics, the future of Gaza and who will rule it remain deeply uncertain.

Sally Ibrahim is a Palestinian reporter with The New Arab based in the Gaza Strip

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