Jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan has called on fighters to lay down their arms and end its four-decade conflict with the Turkish government [Getty]
Bringing an end to the four-decade conflict between the Turkish government and Kurdish separatists could pay dividends for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as he looks to shore up his domestic position and navigate the rapidly shifting politics in the region, analysts told The New Arab.
In an announcement on Thursday, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan, called on its members to lay down their arms and dissolve the organisation.
In response, the fighters, who are now largely based in north of Iraq, declared on Saturday a ceasefire with Turkey after 40 years of armed struggle for a homeland for Kurds.
The announcement comes after Erdogan and the ultranationalist MHP party extended a shock olive branch to the banned group in December, triggering talks between Ocalan and DEM party officials at the island off the coast of Istanbul where he has been imprisoned for more than 25 years.
The impetus for the rapprochement is being driven in part by Erdogan’s domestic political considerations, analysts say.
Erdogan has been pushing for constitutional amendments that would allow him to run for a third presidential term in 2028 but requires a two-thirds majority to get it through parliament.
“Turkey’s ruling alliance may calculate that it could court the pro-Kurdish DEM party to agree to support a new constitution that would allow Erdogan to re-run in elections,” Berkay Mandiraci, senior Turkey analyst at the International Crisis Group, told The New Arab.
In return, he could provide the Kurds more cultural, linguistic, and representation-related rights, he said.
Finding a breakthrough would be a major political achievement for Erdogan, who has tried repeatedly to end the multi-decade conflict during his years at the top of Turkish politics.
“No doubt Erdogan will also try to leverage all this on the domestic front – building a legacy as the person who put an end to “terrorism”, as his domestic narrative suggests, but also peeling Kurds away from the opposition camp,” Asli Aydintasbas, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, told The New Arab.
Turkey, along with its Western allies, considers the PKK a terrorist organisation.
South of the border
The push to settle the conflict comes amid rapidly-shifting political dynamics in Syria, where Turkey and a number of other countries are competing for influence.
Ankara is among the biggest foreign backers of the country’s new government, which is led by officials from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham – the Islamist rebel group that swept the Assad regime from power in December.
Since Assad’s downfall, Turkey has stepped up its attacks against Kurdish forces in northern Syria and has started to build defence and economic ties with the new administration.
Damascus has engaged with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) about disarming and fully integrating into the new Syria.
There is yet to be a breakthrough in negotiations though an end to Turkey’s conflict with the PKK could make an agreement between the two sides more likely, according to Mandiraci.
The disbanding of the PKK “would help bring stability to the entirety of Syria and open space for ongoing talks between the SDF and Syria’s interim government on the integration of the north-east into the Syrian state,” he said.
It would also remove a major source of tension in Turkey’s relationship with the US, which supports the SDF, he added.
Added to the mix is Israel, which has looked to deepen ties with the Kurds following Assad’s downfall.
Israel has long voiced support for an independent Kurdish state in Syria and ministers are now pushing for the breakup of the country into separate autonomous regions.
Turkey’s foreign minister this week lashed out at Israel for its recent aggression in Syria and accused it of pursuing an “expansionist” agenda in the country.
 “Given that Turkey and Israel increasingly see each other as regional rivals, competing for zones of influence inside Syria, Ankara also doesn’t want to create the conditions for a Kurdish-Israeli rapprochement,” said Aydintasbas.
The Kurdish issue is Ankara’s biggest vulnerability and is an urgent foreign policy priority for the government.
“For Erdogan, making Syria work is of absolute importance – both from a legacy viewpoint and for Turkey’s regional ambitions. And there is no way to do that unless there is a Turkish-Kurdish deal for its future,” Aydintasbas said.
