While in Washington last week to meet US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman discussed enhancing defence cooperation with the US.
The talks took place just days after Riyadh had hosted US and Russian officials to discuss the two countries’ diplomatic relations and the Ukraine war, showcasing the Kingdom’s role as an international mediator and its valued status as a major US ally.
Accompanied by top-level delegations, the Saudi defence minister and Hegseth held extensive consultations for enhancing strategic ties. Emphasising the crucial nature of Saudi-US cooperation, Prince Khalid said that living in a “turbulent region” makes it necessary to coordinate bilateral efforts in order to “ensure stability in the region and the world”.
Responding to press queries about the possibility of Washington helping defend Riyadh in case of an attack by Tehran, Hegseth confirmed that this matter had also been discussed while saying that Iran was “a big concern in the region” and that Saudi Arabia had been “a great partner”.
Sources at the Pentagon, meanwhile, said both sides had discussed security measures against Iran.
While Hegseth’s comments put a spotlight on US military policy in the Middle East, the recent talks also raise questions about what enhanced US defence cooperation with Riyadh could mean for Iran, the future of Gaza, and the possibility of a Saudi-Israel normalisation deal.
Riyadh, Iran, and Washington
Notably, the US imposed a third round of sanctions against Iran’s oil trade on the same day as Prince Khalid’s visit, hitting at least 30 brokers, tanker operators, and shipping companies.
If this trend continues and there is no new nuclear deal, the situation between Washington and Tehran could become even more difficult. On the other hand, if the region remains erratic and unstable, Saudi Arabia might push the US for stronger military commitments.
Discussing whether a stronger synergy between Washington and Riyadh will impact Saudi-Iran ties, Roberto Neccia, an independent Iran analyst, told The New Arab that the prince’s meeting with Hegseth took place in a very different geopolitical scenario from that existing at the time of the first Trump administration.
“The fall of Assad, the downsizing of the resistance axis, the good relations between Tehran and Riyadh, and the constructive engagement of Iran with the countries of the Persian Gulf have all changed the regional perspective,” Neccia said.
The prince’s visit should be “seen in the context of the traditional relations between the Saudis and the American defence conglomerate and, probably, in the context of a potential future, but at the moment difficult and unlikely, Saudi rapprochement with Israel”.
Moreover, though the Trump administration has adopted a stern stance on Iran, there has been a weaker American presence in the region since US troops left Afghanistan in 2021.
|
|
Since then, Washington’s military focus has switched towards East Asia, with US President Donald Trump reaffirming recently that China is the US’s main competitor. Remaining prepared for the possibility of a China-Taiwan war in the future, there might be a limit to what Washington can provide Riyadh.
This may be why the US has given more measured responses to Iranian-backed attacks and opted to impose more sanctions. In turn, this policy by Washington has led Riyadh to adopt a dual-track approach of strengthening US security ties while keeping diplomatic channels with Iran open.
However, according to Dr Theodore Karasik, a Non-Resident Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC, despite all of the goodwill between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Riyadh and Washington will still prepare for the defence of the Kingdom in the event of an Iranian attack.
The “two-sided nature of regional bilateral relations between Iran and Saudi is for political de-escalation and economic cooperation”, Karasik said, adding that the message seems to be that Iran’s near-to-medium-term future could present a challenge.
Gaza and Israel-Saudi normalisation
With the fragile ceasefire in Gaza re-shaping regional security considerations, Riyadh can play an important role in de-escalating tensions and promoting calm in the Middle East, and Washington has recognised its potential to act as a stabilising force.
But while US-Saudi ties are developing to new levels due to current regional events, Karasik said that Washington’s views on post-war Gaza and reconstruction are driven by Trump’s Middle East envoy Steven Witkoff “who is balancing a number of folders simultaneously”.
The normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel therefore remains a complicated issue. While there have been discussions about enhanced bilateral cooperation on defence, civilian nuclear energy, and future technologies, significant obstacles persist.
One major technical issue is Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME), a US legal requirement ensuring Israel maintains superior military capabilities over its neighbours. Saudi Arabia’s interest in acquiring advanced US weaponry could challenge this mandate, necessitating careful negotiations to balance both nations’ security interests.
If a normalisation deal happens, US-Saudi ties could strengthen further, with Washington brokering security arrangements. But if it stalls, relations might remain transactional, with the US supporting Saudi defence needs but without deep strategic alignment.
In Karasik’s view, Saudi-Israel normalisation may occur if several factors come into place regarding governance models in Gaza that are under discussion.
”If Saudi and Israel can agree on a calendar of cooperation on Gaza and West Bank issues, there may be hope for a breakthrough, publicly announcing a normalisation by declaring a new Palestinian government on the Mediterranean coastline,” he said.
“Abbas is to be replaced with a younger technocrat, to be sure, President Trump will force the Gaza issue on all Israeli and Arab parties when he sees the opportunity.”
Due to the prevailing uncertainty, Saudi Arabia seems to have modified its aims from seeking a comprehensive US defence treaty to pursuing a more modest military cooperation agreement. This adjustment reflects the complexities of regional geopolitics.
Therefore, practically, US-Saudi defence ties appear to be moving towards a more interest-driven partnership rather than the deep strategic alliance of the past.
The future of US-Saudi defence ties
Having been a vital counter-terrorism partner for the US since 2003, the Kingdom has contributed significantly to successes against groups like Al Qaeda. Now, this ongoing strategic collaboration could address traditional threats as well as emerging challenges in cyber-security and regional stability.
Having a substantial $126.6 billion in active government-to-government sales with the Kingdom under the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program, Washington has a robust defence trade relationship with Riyadh. But though the US remains Saudi Arabia’s main defence partner, the nature of military collaboration is changing.
Investing in its own military-industrial complex, Riyadh aims to localise 50% of its defence spending to align with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. Riyadh has also been diversifying its defence partnerships by engaging with European and Asian powers.
Due to ongoing regional challenges, Washington and Riyadh are focusing on core counter-terrorism issues, including threat detection, deterrence, defence intelligence, financial crimes monitoring, social media, and information cooperation along with the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI), Karasik said.
|
|
In the US-Saudi defence domain, the “transfer of high-tech components was discussed to help build the Kingdom’s growing indigenous industry, particularly with domestic organisations such as Saudi Arabia Military Industries (SAMI),” he added.
Adding that more robust maritime capabilities were being developed, including the placement of air defence systems in the Kingdom, Karasik remarked that this process began with the transfer of a Greek system in 2021.
The economic dimension
Finally, Karasik highlighted that though the US-Saudi relationship continues to be robust in the defence arena, “bilateral investment between the two countries also helps bind them together despite public disagreements”.
Torek Farhadi, a senior regional analyst, told The New Arab that, “US-Saudi defence ties go back 80 years, but this relationship also anchors on oil and Saudi Arabia’s prominent membership in OPEC. Although the US is a net oil exporter today, the privileged US-Saudi ties help stabilise global oil prices and foster economic security”.
Farhadi said that Saudi Arabia’s indications that it would invest close to $500 billion in the US makes Riyadh an important economic growth partner to the US, especially as the Trump administration wants to “onshore industrial production to create new jobs and prosperity for Americans”.
Sabena Siddiqui is a foreign affairs journalist, lawyer, and geopolitical analyst specialising in modern China, the Belt and Road Initiative, the Middle East, and South Asia.
Follow her on Twitter: @sabena_siddiqi
