Israel is exploiting the fall of the Assad regime

Israel has stepped up its attacks on Syrian territory since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on 8 December last year. In the three days after Syrian opposition factions swept into Damascus, Israel launched hundreds of airstrikes and missile strikes aimed at destroying the former regime’s entire arsenal.

Israel also took advantage of the regime’s withdrawal from Quneitra province and other parts of southern Syria to occupy new territories, on the pretext that the 1974 Forces Disengagement Agreement between Israel and Syria – a truce deal following the Yom Kippur War – is null and void, as there is no party to implement it on the Syrian side.

Israeli occupation forces have continued raiding Syrian territory on a daily basis, on the pretext of searching for weapons. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is trying to carve out a demilitariSed zone encompassing the whole of southern Syria, as well as attempting to fragment the country along sectarian, ethnic and regional lines.

Repeated attacks

Israel was not in favour of the Syrian revolution when it broke out in March 2011. When the Assad regime responded to the uprising with brute force, turning it into a civil war with sectarian dynamics, Israel adopted a strategy of prolonging the conflict for as long as possible in order to weaken and fragment the Syrian state.

Israel laid out red lines for the Assad regime, vowing to prevent the use of Syrian territory to transfer advanced, game-changing weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon; the deployment of Iranian, Hezbollah, or other Tehran-allied fighters near the occupied Syrian Golan Heights; the deployment of Iranian forces; and the production of advanced missiles in Syria.

From January 2013 until the fall of the Assad regime, Israel regularly violated Syrian territory, launching hundreds of raids on various targets. The reticence of the Assad regime, Iranian forces, Hezbollah, and their allies deployed on Syrian territory to respond to any of these attacks, despite their regularity, encouraged Israel to continue.

Since 8 December, Israel has continued its incursions into Syrian territory, despite the fact that the fall of the Assad regime and the seizure of power by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) ended Iran’s military presence and halted the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah, thus eliminating Israel’s original justifications for attacking Syrian territory. Israel’s incursion also took place despite the absence of any military threat emanating from southern Syria.

The new Syrian administration, led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, has stressed that Syria does not seek a confrontation with Israel, will not allow its territory to be used as a launchpad for attacks against it or to smuggle weapons to Lebanon (or any other country), and will adhere to the 1974 Disengagement Agreement.

Al-Sharaa has demanded that the Israeli army withdraw from the Syrian buffer zone and other areas it has occupied since the fall of the regime.

All this demonstrates that Syria and the region at large are facing a new phase of Israeli power projection. Israel sees the current situation as an important opportunity to achieve several goals, most importantly: Weakening the Syrian state by striking and destroying its entire military arsenal and preventing the new authorities from becoming stronger or gaining control of any meaningful weaponry from the fallen regime.

Israel also seeks to occupy new parts of southwestern Syria, fragment the country along sectarian, ethnic and regional lines, and present itself (i.e. Israel) as a strong regional state intent on protecting sectarian and ethnic minorities (despite these minorities not having asked for its protection).

There is also an attempt to impose an Israeli-controlled security zone in southwestern Syria that is off-limits to the new Syrian army, encompassing parts of Quneitra, Daraa, and Sweida provinces, the Mount Hermon region, and parts of Rif Dimashq (rural Damascus).

Occupation of the buffer zone

Israel closely monitored the military operation that Syrian opposition factions launched on 27 November 2024. As it became clear that Assad regime would fall, especially after the liberation of the city of Hama and as opposition forces sped towards Damascus, Israel’s political-security cabinet held a meeting on 7 December where it decided to occupy the Syrian demilitarised zone.

That zone, established under the 1974 Disengagement Agreement, has an area of 235 square kilometres, extending approximately 75 km from the summit of Mount Hermon in the far north of the Golan Heights to its far southern tip, and with a width ranging from a few hundred meters to 14 km.

On 8 December, on a visit to the occupied Syrian Golan, Netanyahu announced that the 1974 agreement was null and void, that the Syrian army had evacuated its positions, and that Israel “will not allow any hostile force to be stationed on our borders.”

No accurate information is available on how much territory the Israeli army has occupied beyond the Syrian buffer zone, nor about the military positions and fortifications it is establishing there. While some sources suggest it has occupied around 440 km2, including the buffer zone, other sources say it now occupies some 600 km2.

The Israeli army has not published details on the numbers of Syrians who have remained in the 15 or so towns and villages in the buffer zone, nor those under Israeli occupation beyond that area.

On 8 and 9 December 2024, the Israeli Air Force launched hundreds of raids on the Syria army’s positions, destroying the vast majority of its military arsenal. The targets of these raids included army bases and airports across Syria, various types of military aircraft including MiG-29 and Sukhoi fighter jets, helicopters and drones, air defence systems including radars and surface-to-air missile batteries, heavy weaponry such as tanks and armoured vehicles, weapons and ammunition depots, weapons production sites, and scientific laboratories. The Israeli navy also attacked and destroyed a large number of Syrian military vessels.

A new, long-term occupation

Israeli leaders’ statements and the activities of the Israeli army on Syrian territory that it occupied following the fall of the Assad regime indicate that Israel is planning to stay there for the long haul.

On a 17 December visit with Netanyahu and former army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi to the summit of Mount Hermon, which Israel occupied on 8 December, Defence Minister Yisrael Katz stated that “the summit of Mount Hermon is the eyes of the State of Israel that see near and distant dangers,” and that the Israeli army would establish fortifications in the areas it recently occupied, in order to remain there for the foreseeable future. 

On 23 February, Netanyahu said the Israeli army would remain indefinitely on Mount Hermon and in the Syrian demilitarised buffer zone, and that he would not allow the forces of the new regime in Damascus to enter the area south of Damascus. He also demanded that the provinces of Quneitra, Daraa, and Suwayda remain demilitarised.

In attacking and occupying parts of Syria, the Netanyahu government is not only exploiting Syria’s weakness after 14 years of conflict, but is also counting on support from the administration of US President. During recent talks with Netanyahu, Donald Trump even expressed his surprise that Israel had not exploited the situation and occupied more land in the Syrian Golan Heights, beyond what it had already taken those it occupied following the fall of the Assad regime.

According to the available data, the Israeli army appears to be preparing for a permanent deployment in the buffer zone and in the hills further east, where it is establishing military bases and fortifications. It is carrying out near-daily incursions north of Mount Hermon, into parts of the southern Damascus countryside, and in the Quneitra and Daraa governorates, ostensibly to search for weapons – then quickly withdrawing, especially when faced with resistance from the local population.

It is also worth noting that the Israeli army has occupied several dams and reservoirs in Quneitra Governorate, most importantly: the Mantara Dam, which is located within the buffer zone and whose reservoir has a capacity of approximately 40.2 million cubic meters; the Ruwaihaniya Dam, which is on the eastern border of the buffer zone and stores approximately one million cubic meters; the Bariqa Dam, which is next to the buffer zone and has a capacity of 1.1 million cubic meters; and the Kudna Dam, to the east of the buffer zone, with a reservoir capacity of some 31 million cubic meters. 

Israel’s continued control over these water resources poses a threat not only to the local community within the buffer zone, but to the entire population of Quneitra Governorate, threatening their water and food security.

A cover for fragmentation and expansion

Israel has not hidden its ongoing efforts to fragment Syria along sectarian, ethnic and regional lines. It has exploited the current situation to prevent Syria’s new rulers from extending their authority over the entire country and to provide cover for its occupation of new territory, meaning that in any future negotiations, the issue of the long-occupied Golan Heights will become a thing of the past.

Israel’s claims that it seeks to protect minorities are particularly jarring as they come from a government that is committing the crime of genocide against the Palestinian people, continues to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity, shows its contempt for international law and conventions, and rejects peace with its neighbours, waging wars against them and occupying their lands.

In this context, Israel is also lobbying the Trump administration to keep the US military forces, estimated at some 2,000 soldiers, in northeastern Syria. During his first term, Trump wanted to withdraw these forces, but he changed his mind following opposition from Israel and officials in Congress and the Department of Defence.

Israel is betting that the continued presence of US military forces in northeastern Syria will protect Kurdish forces and hinder the Syrian state from extending its control over the region. Were US forces to withdraw, Israel would struggle to intervene militarily to protect Kurdish forces in the region they control. Statements on the Kurdish issue appear to be aimed firstly at pressuring the Trump administration not to withdraw US forces on the one hand, and secondly at bolstering the position of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and hindering their integration into the Syrian state.

Israel has exploited the fall of the Assad regime to achieve a number of goals, most notably the occupation of new territories, with the aim of creating a zone of influence in southwestern Syria and preventing the new government from extending its control over the whole country.

In this context, Israel continues to strengthen its control and launch regular incursions into the Quneitra and Daraa governorates and the southern Damascus countryside. It also continues to launch airstrikes on various targets across Syria in order to weaken and undermine the new regime.

Syria can only confront this challenge through national unity, in the framework of the Syrian state, through political participation representing all segments of society, and by forming regional and international alliances to confront Israel’s brutality.

The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies is an independent social sciences and humanities institute that conducts applied and theoretical research seeking to foster communication between Arab intellectuals and specialists and global and regional intellectual hubs.

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Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The New Arab, its editorial board or staff.