For decades, Somaliland, a relatively stable corner in violent Somalia, has been lobbying in vain for international recognition as an independent state. [Getty]
With Arab nations rejecting Trump’s ‘Middle East Riviera‘ plan, the United States and Israel are now eyeing the Horn of Africa as a potential destination for Palestinians forcibly uprooted from Gaza. One place tops their list: Somaliland.
On 14 March, an Associated Press report cited unnamed American and Israeli officials confirming quiet discussions with both Somalia and Somaliland—two bitter rivals whose divisions Washington could exploit to advance its plan.
For decades, Somaliland, a relatively stable corner in violent Somalia, has been lobbying in vain for international recognition as an independent state.
In 2022, it offered the US military access to a strategic seaport and airfield in exchange for steps toward sovereignty.
Now, as Washington—long committed to Somalia’s territorial integrity—considers an unprecedented deal, Somaliland’s leadership may see an opportunity to finally gain US recognition.
Under Trump’s proposal, Gaza’s 2.3 million people would be permanently relocated. His plan envisions the US taking administrative control of the Strip, overseeing a clean-up operation, and repurposing it into a high-end real estate development.
Israeli leaders, particularly from the country’s far-right factions, have long entertained the idea of forcibly removing Palestinians from their homeland.
They now see Trump’s “Middle East Riviera” vision as a viable path forward.
Tel Aviv and Washington are assembling a package of financial, diplomatic, and security incentives to persuade Somaliland and other potential partners. It is a formula reminiscent of the Abraham Accords—a series of US-brokered normalisation deals between Israel and Arab nations.
However, the landscape has changed. Since Israel’s war on Gaza, broadcast live to a horrified global audience, pro-Palestine sentiment has surged, particularly in regions with histories of colonial occupation—Africa included.
“The feasibility of such a plan is highly questionable”, Moustafa Ahmad, a researcher on the Horn of Africa based in Somaliland, told The New Arab.
He noted that while Somaliland’s leadership might evaluate a US proposal from a pragmatic foreign policy perspective, strong public solidarity with the Palestinian cause would make any resettlement plan deeply contentious.
“Even key US allies—Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia—have rejected similar proposals,” Ahmad added.
One regional player could, however, prove instrumental: the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Abu Dhabi has been a key backer of Somaliland’s bid for recognition and maintains ties with Israel. It could help broker negotiations. Yet, while the UAE has avoided strong-worded condemnation of Israel’s war, it has endorsed Egypt’s Gaza reconstruction plan—one that directly contradicts Trump’s displacement strategy.
Somaliland’s president, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi “Irro,” has dismissed reports of ongoing talks, stating that his government would assess any U.S. proposal only if one were formally presented.
Somalia
Meanwhile, in Somalia’s capital, a different political storm is unfolding.
Mogadishu is mired in a constitutional crisis, with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s contested amendments prompting Puntland–an autonomous region in northeastern Somalia– to withdraw recognition of the federal government, effectively declaring de facto independence.
Puntland’s move has deepened Somalia’s internal divisions, weakening the federal structure.
Al-Shabaab, the militant group with ties to al-Qaeda, has capitalised on the chaos, launching deadly attacks, including a recent siege at a hotel in Beledweyne.
The government’s grip on security is slipping, exacerbated by the US freezing aid and growing calls for the President’s resignation.
Despite Washington’s potential leverage, Somali officials insist they will not entertain any plan that involves the displacement of Palestinians.
Somalia’s foreign minister, Ahmed Moalim Fiqi, neither confirmed nor denied any outreach from the U.S. or Israel but made his country’s stance clear: Somalia will not allow its territory to be used for resettling other populations or for undermining Palestinian sovereignty.
Mogadishu, a staunch supporter of the Palestinian cause, supported the Arab League summit’s resolution that firmly rejected Trump’s proposal.
In recent years, Somalia has strengthened ties with Arab states and Turkey, reinforcing its pro-Palestinian position.
“Extremist groups in Somalia have historically incorporated the Palestinian struggle into their rhetoric, framing it within a broader Islamic solidarity narrative,” Moustafa Ahmad, a researcher on the Horn of Africa, told TNA.
With large swathes of Somalia controlled by al-Shabaab, and pro-Palestinian sentiment running deep, Mogadishu is unlikely to risk what little stability it has left.
