Analysis: What to watch for as Israel escalates ‘shadow war’ with Iran

Views:

Israel launched a preemptive military operation targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities Friday morning, marking a dramatic escalation in what had long been a shadow war with Tehran.

Codenamed “Rising Lion,” phase two in the operation is currently underway, with Israeli airspace sealed.

Israel notified the U.S. ahead of the strike, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement. “We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region,” Rubio said. “Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self-defense.”

It’s not clear yet whether the U.S. plans to help defend Israel against retaliation.

The strike comes just days before another round of direct U.S.-Iran talks to negotiate a nuclear agreement. Those talks, scheduled to take place in Oman, will now almost certainly be postponed.

The Israeli strikes could take days, Netanyahu said in a 7-minute address posted on his social media channels. “This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat,” he said.

Netanyahu described an extraordinary breadth of targets. “We struck at the heart of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program,” he said. “We struck at the heart of Iran’s nuclear weaponization program. We targeted Iran’s main enrichment facility in Natanz. We targeted Iran’s leading nuclear scientists working on an Iranian bomb. We also struck at the heart of Iran’s ballistic missile program.”

President Trump sends mixed signals

The Trump administration has sent mixed messages about an Israeli strike in recent days. President Donald Trump reaffirmed his ironclad commitment to Israel’s security and to preventing Iran from developing a nuclear bomb. But he made clear he wanted diplomacy to prevail.

Trump signaled publicly that he was aware of Israeli preparations, but said he hoped any strike would follow a U.S. determination that a deal with Iran was no longer possible.

“We remain committed to a Diplomatic Resolution to the Iran Nuclear Issue!” Trump said on Truth Social just hours before the attack. “My entire Administration has been directed to negotiate with Iran.”

American bases in the region are already on high alert, and the U.S. had already started evacuating diplomats and military families.

Both Democratic and Republican administrations have long asserted that Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons, and that Israel’s security is non-negotiable.

But the strike could expose a political divide within the Trump administration over how to deal with Iran.

Isolationist voices led by Vice President J.D. Vance and media personality Tucker Carlson have argued against U.S. entanglement in another Middle East conflict. Top officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Rubio, who also serves as interim national security adviser, have taken a more hawkish stance and are more coordinated with Israel on these matters.

Netanyahu’s gamble and legacy

This moment marks a milestone in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decades-long campaign to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear threshold state. In recent weeks, he made clear that he was no longer willing to wait.

After facing intense criticism over the security failure on Oct. 7, when Hamas launched a devastating surprise attack that led to a prolonged war in Gaza, Netanyahu appears determined to reclaim his image as Israel’s ultimate security guardian.

“Rising Lion” is not just a military operation. It is a high-stakes gamble that could define Netanyahu’s legacy, for better or worse.

The strike is also likely to shift political dynamics both in Israel and the U.S. At home, Netanyahu may gain renewed public support, while in Washington, he is likely to receive broad backing from Republicans in Congress.

Iran’s retaliation

Tehran has repeatedly warned that any direct strike on its nuclear facilities would be met with overwhelming force. Israel is now bracing for a multi-front retaliation, including ballistic missile attacks and coordinated action from Iran-backed militias in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria. Rubio issued a warning about attacking America: “Let me be clear: Iran should not target U.S. interests or personnel.”

La source de cet article se trouve sur ce site

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

SHARE:

spot_imgspot_img