The resumption of Israel’s genocidal campaign in Gaza, bringing an end to the 19 January ceasefire agreement and killing hundreds mostly civilians, has reignited fears among Palestinians that the war’s ultimate objective extends beyond military goals to include ethnic cleansing.
For many in Gaza, the relentless bombardment, ground incursions, and siege conditions go beyond the goal of eliminating the military and political group of Hamas that has ruled the enclave since 2007 and led the attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023 – they are part of a broader strategy to render the territory uninhabitable, forcing mass displacement by pushing the 2.1 million inhabitants of Gaza to flee for their lives.
Since Israel resumed aerial and ground attacks on Monday, at least 1000 people have been killed, scores of whom are children and women, while multiple villages were forcefully emptied of around 35,000 people. Humanitarian aid continues to be locked out at the orders of Benjamin Netanyahu since March 2.
According to Gazans and analysts, the Israeli actions align with the vision of the U.S. President Donald Trump’s — which he has since retracted – to depopulate Gaza and repurpose it as a luxury coastal enclave. After Arab leaders rejected his pressures to take in Gazans, and world leaders condemned the suggestion, Trump said there were no plans to displace them.
But to Gazans, there is no other explanation to the ongoing extensive violence but their ultimate eradication.
Just weeks after returning to the ruins of his home in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza, 63-year-old Saleh al-Sumeiri was forced to flee once again. The Israeli military intensified its bombardment of areas near the border after the first 42-day phase of a ceasefire agreement expired on March 1.
Packing up the makeshift tents he had erected, Sumeiri moved with his family of 17 members, including his grandchildren, to al-Mawasi, west of Khan Younis. He anticipated yet another wave of displacement, as had happened in towns like Khuza’a and Abasan east of Khan Younis and Beit Hanoun in the north.
“This time, fear grips us more than ever,” he said. “The measures taken by the occupation are more devastating, and we are already drained—physically and mentally. No one here can bear more shelling, displacement, or pressure.”
Sumeiri, like many in Gaza, believes Israel’s renewed assault goes beyond retrieving hostages held by Hamas. Instead, he sees a deliberate campaign of destruction and forced displacement, compounded by a near-total blockade that is strangling humanitarian aid.
“The war has resumed with a ferocity that signals a new phase of extermination,” he said. “We feel death closing in—either from hunger or bombardment. The future looks terrifying. We may be left with no choice but to flee, even though we remain determined to stay.”
Israel’s latest escalation follows a familiar pattern: intense aerial bombardment, followed by ground incursions, accompanied by the closure of border crossings and a near-total blockade of aid. The growing humanitarian catastrophe—marked by starvation, lack of medical supplies, and displacement—reinforces the belief that these conditions are engineered to push Palestinians toward permanent exile.
A renewed and intensified offensive
Israel has framed its latest military operations in Gaza as a “precise and limited” ground incursion aimed at expanding security zones and establishing a buffer between the northern and southern parts of the Strip. Meanwhile, Israeli Defence Minister Yisrael Katz issued stark warnings to Gaza residents, demanding that they “return the kidnapped soldiers and get rid of Hamas. You will pay the full price, and what comes next will be much more difficult,” he said.
Analysts suggest that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pursuing a long-term plan—one that extends beyond mere military objectives. According to Israeli affairs expert Ismat Mansour, the escalation was always expected. Netanyahu, he argues, never intended to move to the second phase of the ceasefire agreement and had been waiting for the right moment to derail it.
“Israel wants negotiations to take place under fire,” Mansour said. “The goal is either to force Hamas into submission or to continue the extermination campaign.”
Mansour also highlights the broader geopolitical factors at play. “All conditions favour prolonged warfare: a restructured Israeli military, a supportive security establishment, government backing, and a green light from Washington,” he explained. “This is not just about Netanyahu’s personal interests—there are strategic objectives behind prolonging the war.”
Political analyst Abdel Nasser Ferwana agrees. He believes Netanyahu was eager to avoid the obligations of the ceasefire’s second phase, which included Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and discussions on reconstruction. Instead, he opted to escalate the war, betting that it would strengthen his political standing and preserve his coalition.
“Israel is using the heaviest airstrikes since the war began,” Ferwana noted. “The aim is to shock Hamas, eliminate its leadership, and exert maximum pressure for a lopsided deal.”
Netanyahu is demanding that Hamas hands over all the hostages it, and other factions hold, in order to enter talks for the second phase of the ceasefire, while refusing to give any concessions to Palestinians.
According to analysts, Netanyahu’s calculations also hinge on domestic political maneuvering. By resuming the war, he secures the support of extremist figures like National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who had conditioned his continued backing on renewed military action.
Displacement and demographic change
Beyond military tactics, analysts warn that Israel’s strategy is driven by long-term demographic considerations. Political historian Mohammed al-Astal describes the current phase as a “brutal process of population displacement,” designed to systematically depopulate Gaza.
“Israel’s ultimate aim is not just military victory, but demographic engineering,” al-Astal said. “The war is about reducing the Palestinian presence between the river and the sea, with forced displacement as the key mechanism.”
He argues that Israel’s strategy follows a consistent Zionist principle: “more land, fewer Arabs.” The relentless bombardment and deliberate starvation of Gaza’s population serve as tools to push Palestinians into exile, either by force or desperation.
“Occupying Gaza without expelling its people does not alter the demographic balance,” he explained. “That is why they are deploying all means possible—bombing, starvation, and the systematic destruction of infrastructure—to drive Palestinians out.”
Two other factors are also shaping Israel’s long-term strategy, according to al-Astal: control over Gaza’s offshore gas reserves and the development of a new trade route between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. The latter, the Ben Gurion Canal Plan, is a proposed alternative to Egypt’s Suez Canal, and could generate tens of billions of dollars in revenue for Israel.
A war without end
As the war rages on, analysts predict it will continue for at least another month—unless international mediation forces a breakthrough. The Israeli military appears intent on applying the “Netzarim Corridor” model, where troops carve up the Strip into isolated sections, making governance and movement impossible for Palestinians.
Al-Astal warns that Gaza faces an increasingly dire future. “Palestinians in Gaza have no regional or international safety net,” he said. “Meanwhile, Israel enjoys unlimited U.S. support, and its government is dominated by the far right.”
For many in Gaza, survival itself has become an act of resistance. “Preserving the presence of two million Palestinians here is a national achievement,” al-Astal stressed. “The cost will be enormous, but it is far less than the catastrophe of forced exile.”
As Israel prepares for a prolonged war, the people of Gaza face an existential choice: endure unthinkable suffering or risk permanent displacement. With no viable exit and no protection from the international community, they remain trapped—caught between the devastation of war and the looming specter of expulsion.
This piece is published in collaboration with Egab
