Assad loyalist using Lebanon for cross-border attacks on Syria

A former commander of Assad’s Republican Guard is using the porous and largely unsecured Lebanese-Syrian border to orchestrate attacks and sow chaos within Syria, according to a report by Syria TV on Wednesday. 

Miqdad Fatiha, leader of the neo-Baathist ‘Coastal Shield Brigade’ paramilitary force, which is loyal to the regime of fallen tyrant Bashar al-Assad, is moving across the Lebanon-Syria border with apparent ease, using former smuggling routes. 

Using a combination of open-source intelligence analysis and geolocation techniques,  and video footage shared by Fatiha, Syria TV were able to match landmarks, terrain features, and the position of the sun to confirm his movements between Lebanon and Syria.

Additional insights were gathered through local sources familiar with the region’s smuggling routes, particularly around Hakr al-Dahr.

Fatiha uses areas like Hakr al-Dah, which is a border area in western Syria near the Homs Governorate, adjacent to northern Lebanon, as strategic points to move fighters and weapons into Assad’s former heartlands of Latakia, Tartous and Hama. 

The former special forces commander is thought to be one of the leading individuals behind a recent insurgency of Assad loyalists across these areas, which led to the mass killing of over 800 civilians, almost all of them belonging to the Alawi religious minority from which Assad’s family hails. 

The sectarian killings, carried out by some members of Syria’s nascent security forces, have led to Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa to commission an independent investigation into the violence, to identify those responsible.

Fatiha is thought to be deliberately attempting to sow sectarian violence to undermine the new Syrian government and convince Alawites that they will not be safe under its rule. 

While often based in Lebanon, where he benefits from safety and local support, Fatiha has been able to mobilise remnants of Assad’s forces, using Lebanese territory as a launchpad for incursions into Syria.

These operations, coupled with his heavy use of social media, aim to destabilise the country and pressure the Syrian government by fostering sectarian disorder and perpetuating conflict.

Syria TV also identified Fatiha as frequently being in the Hakr al-Tahir area of northern Lebanon, which is an easy crossing point between Tartous and Lebanon.

Drone footage of Fatiha’s red Kia Rio car and geolocation data demonstrates that he has been able to move between Lebanon and Syria several times per day. 

The report poses questions about how Fatiha is able to operate so freely in Lebanon, though it notes the poor security situation in that area of the country.

However, there are wider fears that more mid-level members of Assad’s armed forces and paramilitaries have been able to escape to Lebanon and are using the country as a base of operations to prompt more violence.