An Iranian and a Turkish visitor look at an Iranian handwoven rug while visiting the 18th tourism exhibition at the International Fairs Complex in Tehran, Iran, on 11 February 2025. [Getty]
Discussions about the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan‘s ambitions to revive the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East have surfaced among Iranian politicians from time to time in recent years. However, the unprecedented tensions between Tehran and Ankara—exacerbated by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s threat to support Iranian opposition groups—have propelled the term “neo-Ottoman Empire” to the political discussion in Iran.
Iranian foreign policy experts have warned that Turkey has entered a new era, and after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Ankara sees itself as the new regional superpower.
Fidan’s comments in an interview with Al Jazeera have sparked widespread speculation among Iranian politicians and experts. Across the political spectrum, they interpret Turkey’s actions as an attempt to restore Ottoman-era influence.
Political tensions between the two countries escalated after Fidan told Al Jazeera, “If you are trying to cause anxiety in a third country, other countries can also disturb you by supporting groups within your own country.”
Following these remarks, Iran summoned the Turkish ambassador, warning against interference in its internal affairs. Turkey responded with a reciprocal diplomatic measure, and the rhetoric between the two nations’ political leaders became more hostile.
Increasing political disputesÂ
Despite their deep-seated political differences, Turkey and Iran maintain extensive economic ties and have consistently sought to present themselves, at least on the surface, as “Muslim brothers.”
Yet their geopolitical rivalries run deep, placing them on opposite sides of nearly every major regional and international issue.
In Karabakh, Iran backs Armenia, while Turkey supports Azerbaijan. In Syria, Iran stood by Bashar al-Assad, whereas Turkey backed opposition groups. Meanwhile, in Palestine, Iran supports Hamas, while Turkey has pursued normalisation with Israel. Moreover, Iran remains at odds with nearly all neighbouring states in the Gulf, while Turkey has expanded its economic and political relations across the region. These are just a few examples from the long list of confrontations between the two countries.
Iranian analysts and politicians view Turkey’s recent threats as serving various key objectives: transforming Turkey into a regional superpower, ending four decades of military conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), warning Iran against supporting Alawi groups in Syria, and bolstering Turkish military power in opposition to Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
Meanwhile, Israel’s political and economic ties with Turkey remain a key concern for Iran’s leadership, which regards Tel Aviv as its main enemy in the region.
Turkey’s regional ambitions and Iran’s response
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei, responding to Fidan’s remarks, emphasised the role of the US and Israel in regional affairs. He echoed Turkey’s call for ending domination among regional powers but questioned, “What about Israel?”
Ali Akbar Velayati, a conservative politician and senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader on international affairs, also interpreted Fidan’s statements as being influenced by the US’ “maximum pressure” campaign and Israel’s efforts to rally support for military action against Tehran.
Addressing Turkish officials, he warned: “Turkey must understand that if some in Ankara believe they can weaken Iran’s position in the region by parroting misguided narratives under foreign influence, they are gravely mistaken.”
Ebrahim Rezaei, a conservative member of the Iranian parliament, took the rhetoric even further, implicitly threatening Turkey with retaliation. He recalled Iran’s support for Erdogan during the 2016 coup attempt and claimed that without Tehran’s backing, Erdogan’s government would have collapsed.
“Mr. Fidan, the Islamic Republic is built on engagement with nations and governments in the region… If not for the policies of the Islamic Republic and the efforts of the martyr [Qassem Soleimani] during the coup, neither your president nor you would be in power today. We have learned never to sit idly by if a stone hits our window, lest we destroy the house of the one who threw it.”
Iran’s fading influence
While Iranian politicians continue to assert that Iran holds a superior position in the region compared to Turkey, Iranian analysts, including those aligned with the conservatives, see the growing tensions between Ankara and Tehran as a reflection of Iran’s declining regional influence.
According to this viewpoint, the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, the assassination of Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon, and Israel’s devastating war against Hamas in Gaza have all contributed to Turkey’s strengthened position. As a result, Ankara is now seeking to expand its influence and power in the Middle East.
Ali Qolhaki, one of these experts, commented on the Iran-Turkey tensions, saying: “Iran’s hegemony has faced serious blows in recent months. It is difficult to predict Iran’s next move, but it urgently needs to rebuild its image and restore its regional power. Otherwise, the current actors in Turkey and the occupied territories [of Palestine] have dangerous plans for Iran.”
This concern is not limited to conservatives. Analysts aligned with Iran’s reformist camp also view Turkey’s growing power, alongside its strengthening ties with Israel and Western countries, as a troubling development.
Arya Barzan Mohammadi, a pro-reformist political analyst, argues that Ankara has shifted its foreign policy from an “adventurous” approach to a “pragmatic” one to secure a stronger position in regional affairs.
Mohammadi also invokes a term increasingly used in Iranian political discourse recently, “neo-Ottoman Empire”, to describe Turkey’s latest manoeuvres: “Strengthening ties with Israel and playing a strategic role in Central Asia are all part of a broader vision—one that can be called neo-Ottoman regionalism.”
Economic ties at risk
Beyond Turkey’s expanding political and military influence across the Middle East and its competition with Iran for influence over pro-Iranian political and militant groups, another issue causing concern in Tehran is the potential strain on economic ties between the two countries.
Despite extensive international sanctions on Iran, Turkey has been one of the few nations to maintain economic relations with Tehran. However, with rising tensions, this relationship now appears increasingly fragile—further deepening Iran’s international isolation.
Veteran Iranian journalist Omid Montazeri sees Turkey’s border wall, officially built to curb illegal immigration and smuggling, as a symbol of the growing divide between the two nations.
“In recent years, Turkey has been building a wall along its border with Iran. Now, it seems that this wall may also serve as a metaphor for a fundamental shift in the relationship between the two countries.”
