Today’s election will tell us a lot about the current political climate in the American Jewish community. Traditionally a strong voting block for Democrats, many Jewish voters are expressing hesitation about the party after a rise in antisemitic rhetoric on campuses, in the world of the arts and literature, and in the medical profession. An anti-progressive protest vote may push some historically Democratic Jewish voters toward support for Trump.
Here are some key storylines that Jews in America and abroad should watch for tonight:
- Starting around 7:30 eastern time in the United States, we should get a good sense of what is happening in the two vital states of Georgia and North Carolina. Georgia was won by Joe Biden in 2020 by just over 11,000 votes, North Carolina by Donald Trump by just under 75,000 votes. Both parties have been campaigning hard in these southern states.
- North Carolina should be of particular interest to Jewish voters. While not home to a large Jewish population, the state is poised to elect its first Jewish governor, Josh Stein. Stein, the state’s Attorney General, is running against North Carolina’s Lieutenant Governor, Mark Robinson. In September, it was revealed that Robinson claimed to be a “Black Nazi” on a porn forum. Robinson has also denied the Holocaust in the past. A race for a major political position between a Jew and Holocaust Denying self described Nazi is worth monitoring on its own, but there is also a palpable fear amongst Republicans that Robinson’s explosive comments could drag down Former President Trump at the top of the ticket. The former President, who endorsed Robinson and referred to him as “Martin Luther King on steroids”, has distanced himself from Robinson in recent weeks and appears to be very concerned about losing the state. If Robinson scares more voters into voting Democrat or hampers Republican enthusiasm in the state, Trump could very well lose the state and the election. If North Carolina goes blue, Harris will have a very good night.
- Conversely, Georgia is home to some 100,000 Jewish voters, mostly in the areas around Atlanta. While Jews tend to be a safe voting bloc for Democrats nationwide, they are less likely to vote Democrat in Georgia. If these voters defect and vote Republican tonight due to concerns about Israel and Antisemitism, former President Trump could flip the state, which would signal a good night for him.
- Also around this time, we should have a pretty good sense of the results from Florida. The state is home to some 660 thousand Jews who tend to vote for Democrats, yet the state is considered a safe state for President Trump, who won it easily in 2016 and 2020. If Florida is closer than expected for Harris, it could be because Jewish voters were turned off by the Anti Semitic rhetoric by the Trump campaign and voted in great numbers against him. If it’s not, look to see how the counties with large Jewish populations voted. If Jews in the greater Miami area have been scared away from Democrats due to fears over Anti Semitism and anti-Israel rhetoric, Trump will run up the score in the state.
- Florida going to Harris is extremely unlikely, but if it does, she will certainly be President. If Former President Trump wins Florida by even more than he did in 2020, it could be a sign Jewish voters nationwide are voting Republican, which will have massive ramifications nationwide.
- By around 10 pm Eastern Time, we will start getting a better sense how the critical state of Pennsylvania is shaping up. Both candidates are desperate to win the state, which went to President Biden by roughly 80,000 votes four years ago. Pennsylvania is home to nearly 300,000 Jewish voters (mostly in the greater Philadelphia and Pittsburgh areas). If there is anywhere Jewish voters will help decide the presidency, it’s here. Both campaigns know that and have been campaigning hard for Jewish votes throughout the state. Because election workers are not allowed to start processing mail ballots until Election Day, Democrats tend to vote early and by mail, we will likely not know the full results Tuesday night – unless the race here is not as close as polls predict. If Former President Trump is going to win the state, he must do better in the suburbs of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh than he did in 2020 – if he does, it will be extremely interesting to see how Jewish voters voted. We might get some exit polls throughout the night that give us that answer.
- Later in the night and into the early hours of Wednesday morning, we will be getting results from Arizona, another critical swing state. President Biden won the state in 2020 by just under 11,000 votes and was one of the major sites of Former President Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election (aided by now Republican Gubernatorial candidate, Kari Lake). The state is home to some 100,000 Jewish adults, the majority of whom are over the age of 65. It would not be a shock to see the state flip, aided by the votes of Jewish voters concerned about Israel.
Donald Trump pictured in December 2019 receiving a menorah from Miriam and Sheldon Adelson at the Israeli American Council National Summit (Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian)• While the presidential campaign takes up the majority of our airspace, the battle for the Senate and House of Representatives are (almost) as critical. The house is especially important because, if Donald Trump loses the election and attempts to overturn the results as he did in 2020, he would likely need a Republican majority. - Control of the U.S house of Representatives will likely be decided in the state of New York, where Democrats are focused on flipping four House districts in New York that Republicans won by fewer than five points in 2022. New York is home to the largest Jewish population in the United States, making Jewish voters across the state a crucial voting bloc that each party is trying to win over.
- In particular, New York’s 17th District is home to roughly 30,000 Orthodox voters and to roughly 90,000 Jews in total. The district is currently represented by Republican Mike Lawler, who faces stiff competition from Democrat Mondair Jones.
- Pat Ryan, a Democrat incumbent in the traditionally Republican 18th district of New York has been working hard to win over ultra-orthodox Jewish voters over the course of his first term. While the district’s Hasidic community has overwhelmingly supported former President Trump in the past, Ryan appears poised to win reelection thanks to his work with the local Jewish community. Rabbi Aaron Teitelbaum, an influential Satmar Hasidic rebbe in the district, endorsed Ryan last week.
- Vice President Kamala Harris will certainly win New York and New Jersey, but if there is an erosion of Jewish support in those two states, Republicans could very well hold on to the House.
- There was also some strange business in the Pacific Northwest last week, which is the site of another key house race.
- Ballot boxes in Vancouver, Washington and Portland, Oregon were set on fire early last week by incendiary devices. According to law enforcement officials, the devices had the words “Free Gaza” on them.
- According to the New York Times, the “Free Gaza” message appeared on a device found at a third ballot box in Vancouver. That device also had the words “Free Palestine” on it. Officials stated in a news conference that they believe all three incidents are linked and the ADL has stated that they are monitoring the incidents.
- Hundreds of ballots in Vancouver were damaged, which could have massive ramifications in a tightly contested and crucial congressional race in Washington’s 3rd District. The district is currently represented by Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez who is trying to fend off Republican challenger, Joe Kent. This year, Gluesenkamp Perez enraged the left wing of her party by voting to send military support to Israel.
- The central question will be: Does the ‘24 Trump campaign outperform his 2016 and 2020 campaign among Jews because of a reaction against antisemitism on the left. By tomorrow morning, we should know the answer.
