The recent arrest in Syria of an Egyptian fighter who called for a popular uprising against President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has raised speculation about whether his detention was intended to ease concerns and persuade Cairo to normalise ties.
Ahmed al-Mansour, an Egyptian national who had initially joined the Islamic State (IS) group in Syria and then ended up within the ranks of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), had formed a new armed group that called for regime change in Egypt with the use of force.
In the days that followed the 8 December downfall of the Bashar Al-Assad regime in Syria, al-Mansour posted a series of videos on social media where he called on Egyptians to follow in the footsteps of the armed Syrian opposition and oust Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
The videos, posted on X under the hashtag ‘Your turn is coming, dictator’, proved popular among opponents of the Egyptian president inside and outside Egypt. News of Mansour’s arrest came earlier in January when the group he formed in Syria reported his disappearance.
In Egypt, his detention was understood among analysts as a gesture of goodwill by the new authorities in Syria. It has also raised questions about what else Syria’s new authorities need to do in the coming period to meet Cairo’s criteria for resuming full ties with Damascus.
Egypt’s caution
Egypt’s reaction to Assad’s downfall has moved from rejection to extreme caution.
The Egyptian foreign minister only talked to his Syrian counterpart on the phone three weeks after Assad’s fall, becoming one of the last top Arab diplomats to communicate with the new authorities in Damascus.
In an interview with the Saudi news channel, al-Arabiya, on 11 January, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty described his Syrian counterpart as the “foreign minister of the de facto authority” in Syria.
While attending an Arab-international conference on Syria in the Saudi capital in mid-January, Abdelatty was keen not to be snapped while standing beside, shaking hands, or talking with his Syrian counterpart, Asaad al-Shibani.
Egypt’s stance towards the changes taking place in Syria and its new authorities is rooted in ideological differences and security fears, political observers in Cairo say, citing a series of measures that could make provisions for the normalisation of ties.
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Egyptian nationals in Syria
Al-Mansour is one of hundreds, maybe thousands, of Egyptian nationals who ended up in Syria since the civil war began in 2011 following the Assad regime’s brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protests.
Most of those Egyptians joined a wide range of groups fighting against the regime of now-ousted Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad.
Some of them joined the Islamic State (IS) group and others ended up within the ranks of HTS.
In 2016, the number of Egyptians travelling to Syria to fight against Assad was estimated at approximately 3,000.
Nonetheless, some local observers believe the number is far larger, which throws light on the reasons behind Egypt’s apprehensions.
Hardened by years of fighting in Syria, they could constitute a security threat to Egypt, especially if they find a way to return and try to replicate the Syrian experience in their home country, analysts said.
“This is why the new administration in Syria needs to provide lists of these people and then repatriate them to their home country,” Samir Ghattas, the director of local think tank, Strategic Studies Centre, told The New Arab.
“This administration will prove its goodwill towards Egypt if it does this,” he added.
Nonetheless, as a potential Egyptian demand, this would be full of risks for Syria’s new de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa.
If Egypt demands the repatriation of its nationals who fought in Syria and al-Sharaa acquiesces, he will likely cause cracks within his Islamist coalition and anger his comrades-in-arms.
Inclusive transition
Some of Egypt’s conditions for normalising relations with Syria were included in the remarks the Egyptian foreign minister made in the past weeks.
In mid-December last year, Foreign Minister Abdelatty called for the launch of an inclusive political process in Syria, one that excludes none of the segments of the social fabric of the Arab country.
“There is an urgent need for managing a transitional period that excludes nobody [in Syria] and reflects the religious and ethnic diversity of this country,” Abdelatty said at a press briefing with his Chinese counterpart in Beijing.
The Egyptian foreign minister reiterated the same demand several times in the following weeks.
Behind this Egyptian desire for an inclusive political process in Syria are fears that Syria’s Islamists will prevail over all other components of Syrian society and establish an Islamist regime.
These fears are grounded in Egyptian animosities to political Islam, against which Cairo has been fighting since the 2013 coup against Muslim Brotherhood president Mohamed Morsi.
Egypt’s campaign against Islamists even assumed regional proportions, with Cairo lobbying against them in regional states, some of which outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood reportedly at Egypt’s behest.
In Cairo, analysts say Egypt will have a big problem if an Islamist regime is established in Syria.
“Egypt will not tolerate this regime by all measures,” Rakha Ahmed, a former ambassador and a current member of local think tank the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, told TNA.
“Egypt does not want the Afghan model to be copied in Syria,” he added.
Ahmed noted that the most favourable scenario for Egypt in Syria would be the founding of a secular state that excludes none of the country’s political, religious, or social forces.
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Quick political transition
Egypt also apparently has a problem with the lack of clarity marring Syria’s current transition.
The new administration in Syria might be trying to put things in order in a country that is still in its initial stages of recovery from a deadly civil war that destroyed almost all state institutions and caused the displacement of around 15 million people from and within Syria.
However, some of al-Sharaa’s remarks are worrying to Egypt, including his estimate that it may take his administration up to four years to hold elections.
“This will protract the transition in ways that delay the formation of representative institutions in Syria,” international relations specialist Mohamed Rabie al-Dehi told TNA.
The absence of representative institutions, he added, may delay international recognition of the Syrian government, including Egyptian recognition.
“Egypt may be encouraged to deal normally with the Syrian government when it is internationally recognised,” al-Dehi said.
Saleh Salem is an Egyptian journalist
