Videos and images shared online showed hundreds of people waving Syrian revolution flags and Lebanese flags and handing out sweets in celebration in the capital Beirut, the Bekaa region and northern Lebanon [Getty]
Lebanon witnessed widespread celebrations on Sunday following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad after Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) swept into Damascus on Sunday, seizing the capital.
Videos and images shared online showed hundreds of people waving Syrian revolution flags and Lebanese flags and handing out sweets in celebration in the capital Beirut, the Bekaa region and northern Lebanon.
Members of the far-right Lebanese Forces (LF) party hailed the fall of Assad, with its party’s leader Samir Geagea congratulating “all Lebanese” on the end of the Syrian Ba’ath regime.
The Lebanese Forces has been a staunch critic of the Assad regime over Syria’s occupation of Lebanon since the civil war, which ended in 2005, with many of the party members believed to be in Syrian jails.
“Over the past 50 years, the regime of Hafez and Bashar al-Assad was the biggest obstacle to the building of a state in Lebanon, Geagea said in an interview with MTV channel. “No matter how the situation in Syria will be after Assad, it’s impossible that it will be worse than Assad. I don’t know what awaits us with the new Syrian authorities, but there is nothing worse than Assad.”
Asked who he would call to congratulate over the historic moment, Geagea said Hezbollah chief Sheikh Naim Qassem, saying he would “inform him that we must all return to Lebanon, seeing as the game has ended and the only approach that can protect us all is the rise of an actual state in Lebanon”.
Hezbollah was a key backer of Assad, enabling his regime to withstand the 2011 uprising through military support and logistical aid.
Geagea used the opportunity to call for Hezbollah to hand over their weapons “or sell them”, urging “we must all embark on building a state in Lebanon”.
Zakaria Al-Ghoul, an expert in political history and international relations, told The New Arab‘s Arabic language edition ,Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, that one of the repercussions of the end of Assad’s regime would be the decline of his allies’ influence.
“Hezbollah, in particular, will face significant challenges as it loses a primary supply line for weapons, weakening its military role within Lebanon – a severe blow, especially after its recent losses in the conflict,” Al-Ghoul said.
“Political parties allied with Assad may find themselves isolated or forced to adapt to the new political reality,” he added.
The group broke its silence late on Monday, stating that they need to assess the situation as the development marked a major turning point.
“What is happening in Syria is a major, dangerous and new transformation, and how and why what happened requires an evaluation, and the evaluation is not done on the podiums,” Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah said in a statement.
Security and social repercussions
Al-Ghoul told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that while political instability in Syria could increase the activity of armed groups along the Lebanese-Syrian border, Syrian rebels have recently offered reassurances that they intend to keep these groups under control.
He also noted that the continued presence of Syrian refugees in Lebanon could exacerbate existing economic and social pressures. Although some refugees have returned to Syria, others, particularly those loyal to Assad, continue to arrive in Lebanon, further straining resources.
Reflecting on Lebanon’s historical relationship with the Assad regime, Al-Ghoul highlighted the period of Syrian dominance as being from 1976 to 2005. This influence began when the Syrian army entered Lebanon as part of the Arab Deterrent Forces during the civil war.
Following the Taif Agreement in the 1990s, Syria became the main powerbroker in Lebanon. Hafez al-Assad’s participation in the international coalition against Iraq solidified this control, as Lebanon was effectively granted to Syria as a concession.
During this era, Syria dictated the appointment of Lebanese presidents, ministers, and political leadership. The 2005 assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri led to the withdrawal of Syrian troops under international and domestic pressure, ending direct Syrian control while maintaining influence through allies like Hezbollah.
The Assad regime, under both Hafez and Bashar, has been linked to numerous assassinations of Lebanese figures, including high-ranking officials and clerics.
Since the onset of the Syrian uprising in 2011, Lebanon has been deeply divided. Hezbollah provided military support to the Assad regime, while the March 14 Alliance stood firmly against it.
Al-Ghoul concluded that the fall of Assad’s regime was likely to trigger a significant shift in Lebanon’s political dynamics and its relationship with Syria.
Anti-Assad factions in Lebanon will push for a more independent relationship with Syria, while Assad’s remaining allies will seek new regional partners to fill the void.
“The collapse of Assad’s regime will fundamentally reshape Lebanon’s political landscape,” Al-Ghoul said. “Some forces will lose influence, while others will gain ground, and the upcoming presidential election will serve as a critical indicator of these regional changes.”
