Yaroun, Lebanon – At the entrance to Yaroun, an earthen barricade laced with razor wire separates Naim Ayyoub from his village a few hundred metres away – the closest he has gotten to his family home in a year and four months.
Flanked by Lebanese army soldiers, Ayyoub shielded his eyes from the sun as he peered over the top, carefully observing an Israeli Merkava tank as it trundled out of view.
“It looks like they’re leaving,” he said excitedly. “We might be able to go back this week.”
Ayyoub, a local farmer, is one of thousands of Lebanese civilians who tried to return home on 26 January, the deadline for Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon in accordance with a 60-day ceasefire agreement.
The agreement, brokered by the US and France, took effect on 27 November and brought an end to 14 months of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. It stipulates a full Israeli withdrawal and requires Hezbollah to move north of the Litani River – 30km from the border. Meanwhile, the Lebanese Armed Forces must deploy to the south, alongside UN peacekeepers.
However, after Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu accused Lebanon of not fully implementing the ceasefire agreement, Israel extended its occupation. Its troops now hold a dozen villages along the eastern part of the border where they continue to destroy local infrastructure.
And in the coastal areas of southern Lebanon where Israel has recently withdrawn, many residents who were able to return home found their villages destroyed and uninhabitable.
Last week, Israeli soldiers opened fire on hundreds of civilians as they attempted to enter their villages in the south, killing 22 people, including one Lebanese soldier. Outside of Yaroun, witnesses said that six people were injured by Israeli fire, three of whom suffered direct shots.
Last Monday, the Lebanese government approved an extension of the ceasefire agreement until 18 February. However, if this deadline is not met, Israel’s prolonged occupation could have broader implications for Lebanon’s domestic politics and could increase support for Hezbollah. Residents of the south are frustrated at the unexpected extension, and scores have pitched impromptu campsites at the entrances to their villages.
At the entrance to Yaroun, the distinct buzz of an Israeli MK drone can be heard overhead. Ayyoub strolled back to a propped-up sheet of blue tarpaulin under which he and around 20 others have been sleeping every night. During the day, they watch and listen for signs of an Israeli withdrawal, the wait punctuated by the occasional explosion as another of their houses is reduced to rubble.
Ali Saleh, one of Ayyoub’s neighbours, said his only home was destroyed by Israeli soldiers in a controlled demolition.
“We don’t have a life. I don’t have anything left, they already killed me,” Saleh told The New Arab. “This is a living death.”
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Many of the residents waiting to return say they are angry at the lack of support from the Lebanese government, with dozens of villages like Yaroun left without water or electricity. And, given the extent of the destruction, they worry about the length of time it will take to rebuild and who is going to foot the bill – a recent estimate put the cost of physical damages and economic losses caused by the war at $8.5 billion.
“It’s as if they [the government] don’t care. And where is Hezbollah going to get the money from?” Ayyoub told TNA. “The obligation [to rebuild] is on our government, but I don’t know if they will be able to,” he added.
“We’re going to wait until we can enter again. We’ll stay here as long as it takes. What else can we do?” he shrugged.
Analysts say the ongoing destruction of infrastructure in border areas could be part of an Israeli plan to implement a “security buffer” in the south.
“Israel has, during the ceasefire period, used its continued occupation of areas of southern Lebanon to continue to achieve objectives that it set for itself in terms of changing the security equation along the border,” David Wood, a Senior Analyst at International Crisis Group (ICG), told TNA.
Though Israel says the extended deadline was necessary as the Lebanese Armed Forces had not deployed quickly enough, it has been using this time to continue its clearing operations. Several residents said that much of the damage done to border villages occurred during the ceasefire after Israeli troops exploited the relative safety to take more ground.
Non-profit group ACLED recorded “over 260 property destruction events” during the 60-day ceasefire period, more than seven times the number for the two previous months.
However, the concern for many Lebanese, not least in the south, is that the extension might also signal the beginning of long-term occupation in some parts of southern Lebanon. Last month, a report by Israeli national broadcaster Channel 13 suggested that Tel Aviv was pushing to keep a military presence in southern Lebanon.
On Thursday, there were reports that Israel had installed heavy surveillance equipment in five strategic locations of southern Lebanon, which Lebanese officials fear is a sign of Israel’s intent to occupy those sites beyond 18 February.
About 25km along the border from Yaroun, by a Lebanese army checkpoint on the way to Kfar Kila, a campfire crackled in the dark, illuminating the faces of another group of villagers waiting to return home. The mood was sombre – they had heard another explosion shortly after sunset, letting them know that the systematic demolition of their village was not over.
Abbas Serhan owned a minimarket in Kfar Kila, and like most of those who lived closest to the Israeli border, he and his family have not been home since war broke out over a year ago. There will not be much of a home to return to: most of Kfar Kila has been razed to the ground.
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“Our biggest fear is that on 18 February they [Israel] will extend again … We want to reclaim our land, even if there are no houses left,” Serhan said. “If they [the Israelis] don’t leave, then it’s all over for us.”
Wood, from Crisis Group, says that a protracted occupation could help boost support for Hezbollah.
“Israel runs a very serious risk if it continues to occupy [southern Lebanon] beyond the 18th of February and weeks turn into months and months potentially even turn into years … that that will only help to bolster Hezbollah’s narrative that the Lebanese state alone cannot push Israel away from Lebanese territory and that it needs support from an armed resistance actor as Hezbollah styles itself,” Wood said.
“It also undermines the credibility of the Lebanese army. The main point of the ceasefire agreement … is boosting the credibility of the Lebanese army, and in particular its capacity to control all Lebanese territory,” Wood added.
For the Shia population in the south, an important part of Hezbollah’s traditional support base, this “resistance” narrative holds. Although many believe the Lebanese army is acting in good faith, they think it is incapable – both militarily and politically – of guaranteeing security in the south.
“The army is also from here, the villages of the south. The problem is that the weapons they carry come from the United States, so they cannot use them to defend [against Israel],” Ali said, another resident of Yaroun.
“Why do people of the south love Hezbollah? We lived through more than 20 years of [Israeli] occupation, but since 2000 they stayed on their side of the border,” he added.
For Christians living close to the border, like Samer Hasbany in Deir Mimas, there is also a deep distrust of Israel’s intentions in the south, but some do not see Hezbollah as the solution.
“An official army presence, rather than an armed group, would provide a more stable and legitimate form of protection … Hezbollah’s presence increases tensions and brings the risk of war. Most people just want stability, security, and the ability to live without constant fear,” Hasbany said.
Alex Martin Astley is a freelance journalist based in Beirut, covering conflict, foreign policy, and social justice issues
Follow him on X: @AlexMAstley
