Syrian forces cross the border through gates, in Al Qaim, Iraq, in this still image taken from a video released on December 7, 2024. Video obtained by [Reuters].
More than 1,000 Syrian regime soldiers fled across the border into Iraq after the toppling of former president Bashar al-Assad’s government on Sunday, according to Iraqi security sources.
A senior Iraqi security official told state-run Iraqi News Agency (INA) that the soldiers “requested entry into Iraq through the Al-Qaim border crossing” in Anbar province and “were received and provided with the necessary care”.
Opposition factions, led by the Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), seized the central city of Homs on Saturday and pushed swiftly into Damascus. Rebels appeared on Syrian state television declaring that the Assad regime had fallen.
In Baghdad, officials played down the risk of a security spillover.
“The border is heavily fortified, and there is a presence of the Iraqi Border Forces, in addition to army units and the Popular Mobilization Forces,” Major General Yahya Rasool, spokesman for the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, told INA.
“The situation on the Iraqi-Syrian border is very good and under the control of the valiant Iraqi units,” he said, adding that it is “supported by technical means such as thermal cameras and specialized equipment”.
Iraq’s National Security Advisor Qasim Al-Araji met with US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iraq and Iran, Victoria Taylor, on the sidelines of the Doha Forum, according to a statement from Al-Araji’s office. They “reviewed the latest developments in the region and emphasized supporting efforts to promote calm,” as well as “Continuing cooperation in combating terrorism and enhancing stability”.
Mohammed Baziani, a veteran Kurdish strategist and head of Al-Huda Center for Strategic Studies, told The New Arab that the Syrian rebel leadership may have adopted a more pragmatic approach after years of civil war.
“The nature of this change in Syria is an event in which some figures who previously were affiliated with Al-Qaeda, but as per the current analyses these figures have changed a lot and their beliefs are more realistic towards the world events, Syria’s local relations and Syria’s ties with neighbouring countries and internationally. If they would go this way, I do not think they would negatively impact the Kurdistan region, as they have called for continuous good relations with the neighboring countries, including Iraq, and the Kurdistan region as part of Iraq.”
Baziani also noted that HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, known as al-Jolani, had reached out to Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. He said the move contained “a big wisdom for preventing the region from escalating into a regional war,” and that if HTS continued on this path, “it would not much affect the Kurdistan region”.
However, Baziani cautioned that Kurdish political unity is lacking, and that ordinary Kurds are suffering from economic hardships due to disputes between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Baghdad. He urged Iraqi and Kurdish officials to reconsider their policies to avoid dire consequences.
“If the Iraqi authorities fulfil what has been told them by the Americans, then Iraq is expected to avoid a similar collapse as the Assad regime’s dictatorship, otherwise, there would be grave consequences for Iraq,” he said. “Currently as a swift ramification for the Syrian regime’s collapse, there are possibilities for a new map for the Middle East, in which Iraq is expected to be split into three confederations for the Sunnis, the Kurds, and the Shias. I have predicted this in research published by the Huda Center in 1999.”
The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) forces launched “Operation Dawn of Freedom” on 1 December against Syrian regime troops and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern Aleppo, further complicating the situation. The Syrian Free Army claimed control of Al-Sukhnah—linking Deir ez-Zor and Homs—and Al-Qaryatayn. Earlier, regime forces reportedly abandoned the T-4 airbase near Palmyra.
Fathulla Husseini, a representative of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, told TNA: “Currently, the conditions under AANES rule are stable, but currently Turkey-backed SNA radicals are attacking Manbij and currently there are fierce battles between SDF forces and SNA robbers.”
Husseini refuted dismissed that Manbij had fallen and said the the SDF rea putting up strong resistance. He added that SDF and HTS are negotiating to avoid clashes in Aleppo, where SDF forces protect Kurdish neighborhoods such as Sheikh Maqsud and Ashrafiah.
He said US forces continue to support the SDF, though accused Turkey of exploiting the situation to launch attacks on SDF positions.
Husseini noted that the SDF had taken eastern Deir ez-Zor to prevent Islamic State militants from regaining control.
AANES is negotiating with the KRG to reopen the Semilka border crossing to send aid from the Kurdistan region to those displaced from the Shehba camp who have taken refuge in Tabqa and Raqqa, he said.
For Iraq, the task now is to shield itself against any destabilising fallout as it works to shore up its borders, and to lead diplomatic efforts to prevent yet another regional conflagration.
