Israel continues to occupy five locations along the border in southern Lebanon (Jalaa Marey/AFP via Getty Images)
Many within Israel’s security circles are convinced that the war on Lebanon must resume, as a US envoy is expected to visit Beirut in the coming days to push the Lebanese government to start some form of direct talks with Israel.
This comes despite Lebanon observing the ceasefire deal which Israel has violated consistently, and has pledged to crackdown on rogue rocket firing incidents targeting Israel in which Hezbollah, the key party to the war and now the truce, denied any involvement.
Israel’s Channel 14 on Sunday quoted an unnamed Israeli security source as saying that “many within the security establishment believe that fighting in Lebanon should resume, and they believe that the firing from Lebanon will continue”.
The source spoke of “those who believe in the necessity of a buffer zone south of the Litani River in southern Lebanon, with the need to respond to any attacks launched from Lebanon”.
It comes after two incidents earlier this month that saw rockets fired from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
Nobody has claimed responsibility, including the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group which fought a devastating war with Israel last year, but several people suspected to have a role in the attacks have been arrested.
Israel’s response to the rocket fire saw the southern coastal city of Tyre and a south of Beirut suburb bombed for the first time since the November ceasefire. It threatened to completely shatter the already fragile truce which Israel has violated countless times, with nearly daily attacks in south Lebanon and the country’s east near the Syrian border.
Israel vows to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding itself, after the Shia group suffered heavy losses in the war which dramatically escalated into a full-blown conflict in September after nearly a year of cross-border hostilities.
Thousands in Lebanon were killed, including civilians, and the Israeli strikes caused billions of dollars worth of damage.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday reiterated his claim that the Lebanese government was fully responsible for any hostile activity from its territory, saying Israel would not tolerate every minor any attacks. After last week’s airstrike on Hadath near Beirut, Netanyahu – wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes in Gaza – threatened Israel would implement the ceasefire agreement “by force” if the Lebanese government did not.
The 27 November US-brokered ceasefire deal obliges Israel to completely withdraw from southern Lebanon, but instead it has maintained troops in five strategic border locations, saying it will remain there “indefinitely.”
Lebanon has repeatedly said it was fully committed to the agreement, in line with UN Resolution 1701, and Lebanese soldiers were gradually deploying across the country’s south and dismantling militant infrastructure. President Joseph Aoun has repeatedly called on US and French mediators to pressure Israel to end its occupation, and French President Emmanuel Macron told Netanyahu on Sunday that this had to be done.
Hezbollah is also obliged under the deal to pull its fighters and heavy weaponry out of the south near the Israeli border.
Despite being battered in the war, the Shia militant group is still believed to be in possession of some of its arsenal, and the US and Israel have called on the Lebanese government to disarm the group.
Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said on the weekend that the group would take “a different course of action” if Israel continued to attack Lebanon, calling on the state to end Israel’s occupation.
Normalisation fears
US deputy special envoy for the Middle East Morgan Ortagus defended Israel’s right to defend itself against “terrorists” from inside Lebanon – ignoring the repeated Israeli violations that have left dozens of Lebanese killed.
Israel claims these are Hezbollah commanders and personnel, but civilians have been among the casualties.
Speaking to MTV Lebanon over the weekend, Ortagus reiterated the US’ stance that the Lebanese government was responsible in disarming Hezbollah – a designated terror organisation in Washington – and that there should be no “state within a state.”
Ortagus is scheduled to visit Lebanon in the coming days, according to Lebanese media, where she is expected to push officials in starting negotiations with Israel.
The Lebanese government announced in early March that it was agreed to establish three joint working groups which would focus on three issues: the release of Lebanese detainees captured by Israel during the war, an Israeli withdrawal of the five locations in south Lebanon, and demarcating the land border, known as the Blue Line.
This came after a meeting between representatives of Lebanon, Israel, and mediators the US and France in Naqoura, the headquarters of the UN peacekeeping mission in south Lebanon (UNIFIL).
As a “goodwill” gesture to President Aoun, Israel released five Lebanon prisoners.
“To be clear, what we want is diplomatic negotiations, diplomatic talks. We want the ceasefire to be strong and lasting and stable, there have been border issues for quite a long time that need to be resolved. These need to be solved diplomatically, not just through military channels,” Ortagus told MTV Lebanon‘s correspondent in New York when asked about the US’ insistence on forming the working groups.
The envoy said she will encourage the Lebanese government to go forth with this plan, adding: “Israel’s ready to talk, we’re ready to talk. We need to have diplomatic conversations in order to move a lot of these security problems forward because, again, we want the Lebanese people to be able to live in peace.”
When asked whether ultimately the US wanted to see Lebanon normalise ties with Israel, Ortagus said: “For today, I’m just worried about the ceasefire … if the Lebanese government lives up to its commitments in the ceasefire, and disarms Hezbollah, and stops militants from shooting rockets into Israel, that’s a good first step.”
Many in Lebanon are concerned that continued US pressure on Beirut to engage in direct talks with Israel are a prelude to normalisation, something Lebanese officials have said was off the table and is widely rejected in Lebanese society.
But there is widespread belief in Lebanon that Israel’s continuous attacks and possible military escalation could be to pressure the country into finally accepting such a deal.
Some US officials such as Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff has said on several occasions that Lebanon joining the controversial Abraham Accords has become very likely.
