Israel launched its long-anticipated strike on Iran because it believed the Islamic Republic was too weak to retaliate meaningfully, a leading analyst has said.
David Patrikarakos, a British-Iranian journalist and commentator, told Jewish News that while Israel had wanted to hit Iran’s nuclear facilities for two decades, it had finally acted because Tehran’s regional proxies were decimated, its air force ineffective, and its population increasingly hostile to the regime.
“They’ve wanted to do this for 20 years,” said Patrikarakos. “They never did it – partly because they didn’t have the technology and because they feared Iran would do what North Korea did and make a dash for the bomb. But this time, they judged that Iran couldn’t do much in return.”
Israeli Air Force fighter jets depart for strikes in Iran, early July 13, 2025. (Israel Defense Forces)
He described the scale and precision of Israel’s air operation as “extraordinary”, comparing it to “a cross between the Godfather battle scene and the pre-emptive strike on the Egyptian Air Force in 1967”.
Iran’s air defence systems were unable to stop Israeli jets targeting senior military commanders and nuclear infrastructure overnight in what Israel dubbed Operation Rising Lion. More than 200 aircraft are believed to have taken part.
“We now know Iran has no defences, no air force to speak of, and no proxies left,” said Patrikarakos. “Hamas is largely destroyed. Hezbollah was damaged badly during the Gaza war. The regime looks vulnerable. Israel saw that and went for it.”
He said Israel’s leadership believed it had a limited window of opportunity. “There’s a succession crisis coming. The Supreme Leader is dying. The Iranian people are sick of it. And after 7 October, Israel is no longer just targeting its enemies’ local proxies – it’s going after the core of Iranian power.”
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamene
And what happens next? He said Iran “has to respond” – but faces a dilemma.
“They’re stuck. If they strike too hard and kill civilians, Israel will open up on them again. But if they strike weakly, like last time, it just makes them look bad. Their last response was a damp squib – drones and missiles, most of which were shot down. It made them look weak. And that emboldened Israel.”
Despite fears of regional escalation, Patrikarakos was sceptical. “The Iranians always wanted a regional war – but with who? Hezbollah? Hamas? Syria? The Houthis are already sending bombs, but Israel would smash them. There’s less risk of regional war than ever. Who’s going to fight it?”
He said the operation marked a strategic shift. “We’re seeing Israel’s ability to affect the balance of power in the Middle East through hard power. This is way beyond Gaza.”
David Patrikarakos reporting from Kharkiv, Ukraine, May 2022. Photo Credit: Wikipedia
On the West’s response, he said: “Of course the US stance matters – and Israel wouldn’t have done this without tacit American approval. Trump is fully backing them. The Europeans will issue the usual statements, but it won’t matter. And the Gulf States will publicly condemn it and privately celebrate that the IRGC has been decapitated.”
Patrikarakos, who has reported extensively on Iran and written books on the nuclear standoff, said the key question now is what Iran will do in the next 24-48 hours.
“There’s already been another wave of strikes,” he said. “We’re hearing Israel hit Fordow and possibly Qaani – the Quds Force commander who succeeded Soleimani. So, the Iranians either have to escalate, or this becomes an ongoing hammering from Israel. What they do next is critical.”
Reflecting on his own background, he added: “I love Iran – it’s a wonderful place, and Iranians are lovely people. But what we’re seeing right now are surgical strikes on very dangerous IRGC commanders and nuclear sites. Not civilians.”
“As an analyst, what matters to me are the strategic implications. This is a major shift – and we’re only at the beginning.”
