Israel struck the Beirut neighbourhood of Basta again, a residential area has been hit multiple times in this war [Ibrahim Amro/AFP/Getty]
If no last-minute obstacles arise, Israel and Lebanon are expected to officially sign off on a US-brokered truce deal on Tuesday, which could end a devastating Israeli assault that has killed thousands and left large parts of the country in ruins.
Ceasefire negotiations, which were mediated by US envoy Amos Hochstein, are said to be in the very final stages, after reports on Monday that stated both Israel and Lebanon’s leadership had greenlighted a two-month truce.
The truce could commence as early as Wednesday, according to Israel’s Army Radio.
Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shia group which began a “support front” for Gaza last October, is the main Lebanese party engaged in the conflict.
The group has faced a string of heavy Israeli blows since mid-September, when Israel turned a low-level conflict into a full-scale war, assassinating Hezbollah General-Secretary Hassan Nasrallah and most of the group’s leaders.
It has, however, vowed to continue its “resistance” to Israel until a ceasefire was reached.
Having initially linked a ceasefire for Lebanon to an end of hostilities in Gaza, Hezbollah eventually agreed to a deal with Israel without peace in the devastated Palestinian enclave.
While the ceasefire hasn’t officially been announced, and its clauses yet to be confirmed, a general outline has emerged. It will be based on UN Resolution 1701, which was passed after the 2006 war but never fully enforced.
As Lebanese civilians held their breath, Israel launched massive airstrikes across Beirut’s southern suburbs on Tuesday as well as the capital city itself, targeting the Basta neighbourhood – which has been hit numerous times in this war – as well as other locations throughout the city.
Hezbollah and Israel to pull out, Lebanese army to move in
The agreement would start off as a 60-day truce while Israeli forces, who began a ground invasion at the start of last month, would begin a gradual withdrawal from southern Lebanon.
Lebanese army soldiers will then be deployed to the area, particularly south of the Litani River. No group would be allowed to bear arms outside of state control.
Hezbollah will have to move its fighters and heavy weapons north of the river, a demand Israel has insisted on since cross-border fighting erupted, but one Hezbollah had repeatedly refused.
Hezbollah is believed to still be in possession of long-range ballistic missiles and other weaponry.
Lebanese soldiers, along with UN peacekeeping forces from UNIFIL will be responsible for dismantling Hezbollah’s installations south of the Litani, but it is not clear how or when this would happen.
The Lebanese foreign ministry announced on Tuesday that 5,000 soldiers will be deployed to the south once the deal is announced.
Beirut earlier this month approved funding to recruit an additional 1,500 troops. Dozens of Lebanese soldiers have been killed in the Israeli attacks.
The cash-strapped government has called for international support for the Lebanese Armed Forces to fully implement the deal and several countries have announced readiness for this.
On Tuesday, the Israeli military said its Golani Brigade reached the Litani River, while the 91st Division stormed Wadi Slouqi in southern Lebanon, destroying Hezbollah infrastructure.
Battles between Hezbollah fighters and Israeli troops in the hilltop border town of Khiam continued on Tuesday, the site of clashes for several weeks.
No buffer zone
According to the terms of the agreement, a buffer zone will not be established inside Lebanon, and residents forced out of the southern border villages will eventually be allowed to return to their homes.
Since beginning its ground invasion, Israel has blown up dozens of border villages, amid fears that it wanted to carve out a depopulated “security zone” along the Lebanese frontier.
But even if no buffer zone is established, the use of white phosphorus, which has contaminated the soil, and the destruction of more than 30 border villages, will prevent residents from returning to their homes for some time.
The Lebanese foreign ministry said Tuesday that the United States could help in rebuilding southern Lebanon when hostilities end.
Israel’s offensive has focused on Lebanon’s south, Beirut’s southern suburbs and towns in the eastern Beqaa region, all Shia-majority areas where Hezbollah enjoys a lot of support.
Israel claims it can still attack Lebanon
One major sticking point in the deal was Netanyahu’s insistence on Israel maintaining the “right” to attack Lebanon if it finds any violation of the agreement.
Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth has claimed Israel will not be handed the “freedom to act” in Lebanon as part of a ceasefire agreement but instead as part of a side deal with the US.
Lebanon had outright refused to accept such a condition that would encroach on its sovereignty, and Lebanese officials had denied they had any knowledge of this being in the agreement.
According to the deal, Israel will be given the right to strike “imminent threats”, such as an incoming missile attack.
Any attempt to smuggle arms to Hezbollah will also be hit, Israel has warned. There is speculation that Russia will monitor the flow of arms through the Syrian border, although Moscow has not explicitly said it will play a role in the ceasefire deal.
Some unverified reports said that Washington told Israel to prioritise hitting targets inside Syrian territory before they reach Lebanon.
For “non-immediate” violations, such as Hezbollah’s attempts to rebuild its tunnels or other infrastructure in southern Lebanon, Israel will be obliged to inform an international monitoring committee, who will in turn request from UNIFIL and the Lebanese army to act.
In a case where UNIFIL and the Lebanese army do not act to address the violation, Israel will take military action itself.
This committee is responsible for implementing the ceasefire deal and will be headed by Israel’s biggest ally and the Lebanese army’s main donor, the US.
As well as the US, the committee is expected to include France – whose participation Israel had rejected – and other Western states, reportedly the UK. An Arab state is also expected to be part of the committee.
US pressure and guarantees
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had reportedly agreed to the deal after mounting pressure by the outgoing Biden administration, which had allegedly promised Netanyahu to facilitate the delivery of arms if he gave the ceasefire the OK.
There have also been reports that Netanyahu was worried about a Lebanon ceasefire being put to vote at the UN Security Council and the US abstaining, which would have obligated Israel to stop its attacks.
Netanyahu is now the subject of an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court, issued last week over alleged war crimes in Gaza, further isolating him on the global stage.
Israel’s Kan broadcaster reported that residents of northern Israel – tens of thousands of whom have left their homes – will be able to return after the 60-day truce is over.
US President Joe Biden and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron are expected to officially announce the ceasefire once the Israeli cabinet approves it later Tuesday.
The two presidents had called for a 21-day truce in September when Israel’s violent escalation began, and the proposal was backed by several Western and Arab states, but Netanyahu turned down the deal.
A president in Lebanon?
Caretaker Prime Minister Naijb Mikati is set to announce the Lebanese government’s position on the ceasefire deal Tuesday evening and meet with ministers on Wednesday for discussions.
Lebanese ministers have expressed cautious optimism and Beirut is expected to accept the deal without hindrances.
A political stalemate has left Lebanon’s cabinet in caretaker capacity and the country has been without a president since October 2022.
There have been discussions in Lebanon about whether the truce with Israel could pave the way for a presidential election, which take place in parliament under Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing structure.
A president would be essential for signing any future deals with Israel if and once a full-fledged ceasefire goes into effect, such as finalising a border demarcation deal.
