Nawaf Salam has no room for delays. The 2026 elections are coming fast, and this government will be judged on results, not promises, writes Ramzi Abou Ismail [photo credit: Getty Images]
Nawaf Salam has stepped into the hottest seat in Lebanese politics, leading a government tasked with reforming a broken financial system, rebuilding a failed state, and negotiating the most delicate ceasefire in years — all within a political minefield designed to ensure failure.
The clock is ticking. In just over a year, Lebanon faces new parliamentary elections, and Salam’s government is already running on borrowed time. Can it deliver tangible results before entrenched political forces and sectarian strongholds rip it apart? Or will it become just another name in Lebanon’s long list of wasted opportunities?
This is not just a test for Nawaf Salam. It is a test for Lebanon itself. If this government fails, it will not just mean another political deadlock — it will cement Lebanon’s collapse as irreversible.
When Salam formed his government, it was hailed as a victory for reformists, but is it? Let’s not be naive. Every major party has secured its share, and while the cabinet contains some fresh faces, it also includes key players from the same establishment that engineered Lebanon’s financial downfall.
So what’s on the table? What does this government actually plan to do? And can it survive long enough to implement real change?
Lebanon’s judiciary has long been a playground for the powerful, a system where judges protect their political patrons instead of serving justice.
Nawaf Salam’s government has pledged judicial independence — but what does that mean in a country where corruption cases disappear overnight? Riad Salameh, the former Central Bank governor and architect of Lebanon’s Ponzi scheme, is still not convicted. War criminals and political elites who bankrupted the country still hold office. The Beirut Port explosion investigation remains stalled, blocked by the same politicians who fear exposure.
If the government is serious about reforming the judiciary, its first move must be to break this cycle of immunity. If it fails, the promise of judicial independence will be another meaningless slogan.
Lebanon’s banking system is a corpse being dragged around in broad daylight. Billions of dollars were stolen, and every day Lebanese are paying the price for the crimes of the elite. The IMF has made it clear: no reforms, no bailout. The question now is whether Finance Minister Yassine Jaber will push for real banking sector accountability or if reforms will be watered down to protect those responsible.
Will the government finally address the staggering $70 billion in depositor losses, or will ordinary Lebanese be left to bear the burden while the rich escape unscathed? The government has limited options — either it moves quickly to fix the banking crisis, or Lebanon remains trapped in economic freefall.
Lebanon’s race against time
Lebanon’s electricity crisis is a national humiliation, a daily reminder of the country’s failure. Every government promises solutions but none deliver. The real test for this cabinet is whether it will have the courage to dismantle the clientelist networks profiting from Lebanon’s energy collapse or if it will merely patch the system up just enough to survive the next elections, only for the crisis to resurface again. We’ve seen this movie before. If Salam’s government does not break this cycle, it will become just another footnote in Lebanon’s decline.
Perhaps the biggest question looming over Salam’s government is how it will navigate Lebanon’s security crisis. The ceasefire with Israel is fragile at best, with reports suggesting that a “Phase Two” deal is being negotiated to extend and enforce it.
UN Resolution 1701+, a stronger version of the existing ceasefire terms, could see the Lebanese Army take a larger role in border security. But what happens to Hezbollah? Will the government confront the issue of disarmament, or will it sidestep it altogether? Can Hezbollah accept a more limited military role, or no military role at all, or will it resist any perceived threat to its dominance?
Will we see internal disagreements within the party on how to confront this given the weak Iranian position? The government’s ministerial statement will be the first real test. If it removes the word “resistance” and many expect it to, Hezbollah is expected to push back.
If it keeps it, many Lebanese parties along with the international community will question Lebanon’s commitment to taking control over its borders and putting an end to all non-state military presence. There is no easy way forward. But if this government fails to establish a security vision that includes all Lebanese — not just one party — then Lebanon will remain a hostage to endless cycles of war and ceasefire.
Nawaf Salam has no room for delays. The 2026 elections are coming fast, and this government will be judged on results, not promises.
If it fixes even one of these crises — judicial accountability, financial reform, electricity, or security — it could shift Lebanon’s trajectory.
If it fails, it will confirm what many already fear: that Lebanon is incapable of saving itself. This is not just another government. This is Lebanon’s last chance.
Dr. Ramzi Abou Ismail is a social and political psychologist specializing in collective violence, intergroup conflict, and social identity, with a particular focus on the Middle East region. He is currently a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Social Justice and Conflict Resolution at the Lebanese American University.
Follow Ramzi on Instagram: @the.political.psychologist
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Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The New Arab, its editorial board or staff.
