Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in Washington this week to hold talks with President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday and meet other US officials.
The visit is viewed as a formal recognition of close US-Israel ties, but will also address several key issues that could shape Washington’s foreign policy over the next four years and have huge consequences for the MENA region.
We look at five issues that are likely to be addressed by Trump and Netanyahu during this crunch meeting.
Gaza
The second phase of a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel will be a major feature of the Trump-Netanyahu talks, with a captive exchange between the two parties continuing this last week.
Netanyahu’s office confirmed on Sunday that talks on phase two of the truce will be feature in the Trump meeting on Tuesday, with the first stage of the agreement seeing 33 Israeli captives and around 2,000 Palestinian detainees released.
The second stage, which will see the release of more captives from both sides and a longer-term solution to the situation in Gaza, is the stickier point with far-right members of Netanyahu’s government opposing its progress.
After 15 months of gridlock while Joe Biden was president, Trump’s team, headed by Steve Witkoff, managed to hammer out a ceasefire deal for Gaza, reportedly after a tense meeting with Netanyahu.
Witkoff has been in the MENA region over the past week for talks with Palestinian and Israeli officials to ensure phase two is rolled out smoothly.
Meanwhile, a brutal Israeli offensive on the West Bank and the expansion of settlements in the Palestinian territory is continuing.
Saudi normalisation
Witkoff has also reportedly been busy with talks on a possible normalisation deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, a scenario that would have seismic consequences for the MENA region.
Netanayahu and Trump are expected to announce progress on the Saudi normalisation talks, a highly controversial issue in the Arab world due to Israel’s brutal war on Gaza, its continued occupation of the West Bank, and refusal of the Israeli government to agree to a two-state solution.
The details of the deal are still being finalised, focusing on the wording of the agreement, according to Haaretz, with signs that the Palestinian Authority (PA) could be on board with the deal.
Saudi Arabia froze normalisation talks during the Gaza war until progress is made on Palestinian statehood, but the prospect of another country being added to the so-called Abraham Accords – which includes the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco – might be sufficient for Netanyahu to keep the truces in Gaza and Lebanon standing.
The recent reports follows talks crunch between Witkoff and PA Minister of Civil Affairs Hussein Al-Sheikh, a key Palestinian figure who is expected to be Ramallah’s next leader.
Trump’s call for Egypt and Jordan to take in Palestinians from Gaza are allegedly a negotiating tactic by the US president regarding the deal, according to Israeli media.
Amman and Cairo have strongly rejected the idea, while Jordan’s King Abdullah due to visit Trump in Washington later this month.
Iran
The Saudi-Israeli normalisation deal coincides with another crunch MENA issue: Iran.
Both countries see eye-to-eye on their mutual suspicions about Iran with security talks between the two countries on how to deal with Tehran and its proxies reporting taking place.
Netanyahu said he would discuss with Trump the “Iranian terror axis” with Trump amid continued reports that Israel could strike Tehran’s nuclear facilities at any moment.
While Washington has pursued an anti-Iran agenda since the 1979 revolution, Trump is particularly hostile to Iran implementing a “maximum pressure” approach to Tehran during his first presidency by leaving a nuclear deal with the country and enforcing punishing sanctions on the country.Â
Iran has continued to upgrade its nuclear programme since then, with Israeli analysts believing a joint strategy on how to deal with Tehran will be at the top of the agenda in the Trump-Netanyahu talks.
Although there are many Iran hawks in the US administration, Trump and Vice-President JD Vance have both signalled they would prefer a diplomatic solution with Tehran rather than war.
Despite this, there are still concerns the meeting could see Trump could give Netanyahu a nod to strike Iran.
International Criminal Court (ICC)
Netanyahu has an arrest warrant on his head from the ICC over alleged war crimes in Gaza, and Trump’s invitation to the Israeli prime minister is another clear signal by Washington to the world about the issue.Â
Washington is not part of the ICC, so is not obliged to arrest Netanyahu, but it shows a clear backing for the Israeli PM regarding his war on Gaza, which has killed tens of thousands of civilians.
Both Trump and the Biden administrations have strongly opposed the legal case at the ICC regarding Israel’s war on Gaza, widely viewed as genocide, while Trump has sought to sanction the court over the issue.
While Trump’s plan has been thwarted, for now, by Congress voting down the sanctions bill, the two leaders are likely to discuss the arrest warrant on the Israeli PM and future actions.
Lebanon and Syria
Along with the Gaza truce, a ceasefire on Lebanon is still in place, despite Israel ignoring the agreement by remaining on Lebanese soil and continuing to bomb the country.
Despite this, there has been a marked decrease in violence in Lebanon and Trump will likely want to keep it that way with Hezbollah’s military wing weakened in the Israeli offensive and a West-leaning president and prime minister appointed in Beirut signalling that the Lebanese Shia movement is also losing its influence on the political scene.
The US has reportedly pressed Beirut to ensure there are no Hezbollah appointees in the next cabinet, including the important finance minister portfolio.
While the Biden administration was credited with brokering the truce between Hezbollah and Israel, the ‘Trump factor’ was seen as an important element in the deal.
In Syria, Israel continues to occupy parts of the country, while rebels have overthrown Bashar Al-Assad’s regime, resulting in the expulsion of Iranian forces.
A joint strategy on how to deal with the new government in Syria, headed by Ahmed Al-Sharaa, a former member of Al-Qaeda, will also likely be on the cards.
