Last Sunday was an extraordinarily emotional day in Israel, with most of the country glued to their television screens watching the news from the moment word got out that Emily Damari, Romy Gonen and Doron Steinbrecher were on their way in International Red Cross transport, to be received by the IDF.
According to polls, a clear majority of Israelis believe this ceasefire deal is the right thing to do; the best thing to do in the circumstances. A vocal minority insist that it’s a terrible deal; with nearly 2000 Palestinian terrorists granted their freedom, including several hundred with blood on their hands..
It seems to me that the deal is both of these things. It is terrible. And yes, it is the right and best move right now.
We have to face facts. Hamas made a brilliant strategic move on October 7; choosing to take 251 hostages, rather than simply adding their names to the list of the slaughtered on that terrible day. The IDF was hamstrung from day one.
Because here’s another fact: We were sold a bill of goods by Benjamin Netanyahu and his government when they told us we could both completely eliminate Hamas, and get all our hostages back. This was never true.
To do the former would require a long-term occupation of Gaza and a drawn-out conflict, probably over a number of years. Hundreds of soldiers would be killed. And in Israel, every soldier killed is a national tragedy. Already the cumulative hundreds of thousands of days served by Israeli reservists has cost the country billions of shekels in lost work days. Small businesses have closed; start-ups in the Start-Up Nation have gone to the wall. To say nothing of the effect on families of mothers bringing up children without their fathers for months on end. (And keep in mind that the coalition politicians most vociferously pushing this option are, for the most part, also insisting that the ultra-Orthodox be exempt from military service.)
The Palestinian Authority is despotic and untrustworthy, but there is an opportunity here.
So, we have to make a choice: eliminate Hamas after a long and costly war of attrition, which would almost certainly mean the death of most of the remaining hostages; or accept that the complete elimination of Hamas is not feasible, but getting the living hostages back, is.
The hardest thing for many Israelis about the television coverage on Sunday, was that we all saw hundreds of Hamas fighters gathered in Gaza, in full military uniform. (Funny how they wear uniforms after a ceasefire. When they’re fighting, they prefer to disguise themselves as civilians.) They were celebrating a “victory”. Most people would not look at the ruins of Gaza and call it that, but they will have a case if the war ends with Hamas still able to exercise power in Gaza.
Paul Gross
To deny them this, Netanyahu needs to make the decision he has avoided making thus far, despite repeated entreaties from both Washington and his own military leadership: what will the “day after” look like in Gaza? The only two feasible alternative that would deny Hamas a role, are a return to full Israeli control, or bringing in the Palestinian Authority that already governs the majority of the West Bank.
The former would be a colossal financial investment for Israel and would require increased army service. It would also alienate Israel’s allies, including in the Middle East, and would all but kill the chances of a game-changing peace agreement with Saudi Arabia.
The remaining option is far from ideal. The Palestinian Authority is despotic and untrustworthy, but there is an opportunity here. The road to Saudi normalisation could be paved with the reform of the PA that is so desperately needed – addressing corruption, and anti-Israel and antisemitic incitement in the media and education system.
A different Israeli prime minister, leading a different coalition – one not beholden to the ideological fantasies of Messrs. Ben Gvir and Smotrich – would have long ago sought to bring the United States, the UAE, Egypt and Jordan into a framework to support the PA takeover of Gaza, replacing Hamas. These partners could also push Palestinian reform, which would allow Israel to declare its6- renewed support for the two-state paradigm, and the obstacles to an agreement with Riyadh would be removed.
It is not too late for Netanyahu to change tack, though it is unlikely. The one man who could force Israel’s prime minister to abandon his hard-right allies and pursue a pragmatic path is now back in the White House. And Donald Trump, who lives for personal acclaim, might just be tempted by the prospect of a Nobel Peace Prize.
Paul Gross lives in Jerusalem and writes and lectures on Israeli and global politics. He has written for a number of publications in Israel, the UK, and the US. Before making Aliyah from the UK he worked for the Embassy of Israel in London, in the Public Affairs Department.
