The Assad regime has fallen, bringing to an end decades of terror, violence and despotism. Millions of Syrians can rejoice in the fall of a tyrant who was responsible for countless atrocities during a long and bloody civil war.
During the conflict, Assad used chemical weapons against the civilian population and was directly responsible for the torture and murder of tens of thousands of Syrians. For this litany of ghastly crimes, Assad deserves to be indicted for crimes against humanity. But his fall is also a bitter blow to the axis of autocracy, starting with Russia.
Moscow may lose two critical assets in Syria: the seaport at Tartus from which the Russians were conducting surface and submarine operations in the Mediterranean, and the Khmeimim Air Base at Latakia. Their loss would undermine Russian power projection in the region, representing a bitter political humiliation for Putin.
But Assad’s fall is a bigger blow to Iran and its plans for regional dominance. Syria was a key conduit in furthering Iranian interests in the Levant. Iran spent billions of dollars smuggling advanced weapons into Syria and deployed thousands of its operatives in the country, all part of a long-term attempt to cement Hezbollah’s power in the Middle East.
Jeremy Havardi
The rapidity of Assad’s fall only shows how much the regime was a paper tiger, dependent on help from external actors.
The failure of the Iran-led axis to support Assad stems from the blows they have suffered at the hands of Israel. Since the ill-fated decision to launch unprovoked attacks on Israel from 8 October onwards, Hezbollah has suffered irreparable losses at the hands of Israeli forces.
They have lost their iconic leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and almost their entire leadership, as well as thousands of experienced fighters. They have also lost a vast amount of advanced weaponry, and much of their tunnel system has been degraded. These are grievous blows that will take Hezbollah many years to recover from.
The failure of the Iran-led axis to support Assad stems from the blows they have suffered at the hands of Israel
Iran too has suffered directly from devastating Israeli responses to its ballistic missile attacks. Israel targeted Tehran’s air defense missile batteries and missile production facilities, as well as the Parchin military base southeast of Tehran. Such blows have humiliated the Islamic Republic and reduced its ability to resupply critical allies, especially Assad.
The much vaunted ‘ring of fire’ is now a hollow shell.
Thus, we see the ultimate folly of Yahya Sinwar’s ‘big project’ on 7 October. Hamas’ gambit failed to unite the Muslim world against Israel. The savage atrocities it committed led to a brutal conflict that has left Gaza in ruins and many thousands of Palestinians dead. Hamas has been eviscerated and Hezbollah decapitated while Iran’s proxy strategy now lies in tatters. ‘Black Saturday’ must go down as one of the gravest strategic miscalculations in modern history.
The rapidity of Assad’s fall only shows how much the regime was a paper tiger, dependent on help from external actors
Some in Israel now sniff a major strategic opportunity, one in which a new Syrian regime can emerge that is not beholden to Tehran. But some caution is needed. While the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has used increasingly moderate language in recent years, his forces remain animated by a dangerous jihadist ideology.
HTS, a former affiliate of al-Qaeda, is still designated as a terrorist organisation by many countries and its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has a $10 million bounty on his head. It remains to be seen whether regime change will herald a transition to an inclusive government run on progressive principles or another type of dictatorship.
The second danger is that Iran, sensing greater isolation and weakness, will race towards becoming a nuclear weapons state. According to the head of the IAEA, Iran is growing its capacity to enrich uranium at up to 60 per cent purity, close to weapons grade material. A US intelligence report has also pointed out that the country has enough fissile material to potentially make a dozen or more nuclear warheads.
The twin threats of a nuclear armed Iran and a jihadist Syria mean that the West, especially Israel, must remain vigilant as events unfold in an increasingly uncertain future.
