The Golan Heights has an often beautiful and deceptively tranquil landscape that belies its status as one of the most contested pieces of land in the world. Conquered by the Israelis during their victory in the 1967 Six-Day War, Syria still claims it. The Israelis never have any intention of giving it back.
It was recently the site of a Hezbollah strike that killed several Druze, which led to a series of Israeli airstrikes against Southern Lebanon in response.
Now, the astonishingly rapid collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria brings Golan into focus once more. Assad’s fall is – potentially – a great day for the Syrian people, long oppressed by his butchery. It is also of huge strategic importance for Jerusalem.
First and foremost is that the Syrian rebels are led byAbu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Syrian Islamist militant group that emerged from various factions, including Jabhat al-Nusra — al-Qaeda in Syria. Jolani’s real name is Ahmed Hussein al Sharaa; his nom de guerre al-Jolani was adapted as a reference to the Golan heights, from which it is rumoured he originates.
As it stands things are looking extremely rosy for Jerusalem. Assad’s fall almost certainly means the end of Iran’s land bridge to resupply Hezbollah.
Much will depend on whether he really is the reformed jihadist he claims – and to be fair the restrained behaviour of his forces so far indicates. But most immediately there are several challenges facing Israel.
First, is that pro-regime militias are already seeking escape routes and attempting to take refuge with their Hezbollah allies across the porous Syria-Lebanon border. Key transit points, such as Al-Qusayr, could become conduits for these movements. Israel must intensify surveillance and control over these unofficial crossings to disrupt potential threats and prevent the formation of more hostile groups that can launch attacks on it.
David Patrikarakos
The disintegration of Assad’s power structure has also left leaders of pro-regime Palestinian factions, notably the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine – General Command (PFLP-GC), in a precarious position. The group’s leader Talal Naji may attempt to flee to Lebanon or join with other Palestinian groups abroad, bringing with him resources and networks. Israel must track these kinds of actors and act to ensure they do not become a direct threat.
The strategic significance of the Syrian city of Quneitra – the gateway to the Golan Heights, cannot be overstated. Whoever controls it has the ability to seriously threaten Israel.
Jerusalem now needs to bolster its military presence along the buffer zone and, ideally – though of course this is likely to be problematic – collaborating with United Nations forces under the mandate of “protecting peace in the Golan.” This would be the smart move, ensuring they are not seen as aggressors and a possible target now Assad is gone.
Politically, the smart thing – for now – is to take Jolani’s professions of moderation and pragmatism at face value. The UN is pre-positioning in New York and Geneva on re-starting a political process in the country, and what resources they’d need exactly to get that up and running again.
No one wants Libya on their doorstep – if there is a UN led political settlement with some sort of federalism for Syria, its government will be busy enough rebuilding their country for decades and won’t have the bandwidth to think about trying to fight Israel.
Assad’s fall is – potentially – a great day for the Syrian people, long oppressed by his butchery. It is also of huge strategic importance for Jerusalem.
It’s in Netanyahu’s interests to help along any diplomatic efforts in this area. As it stands things are looking extremely rosy for Jerusalem. Assad’s fall almost certainly means the end of Iran’s land bridge to resupply Hezbollah.
Not only is Israel’s primary threat on its border now effectively neutered (especially in the wake of Israel’s recent exploding pagers operation) , but its greatest regional—indeed global—enemy, Iran is under more pressure than at any time since the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War.
This being the Middle East things can – and probably will – implode.
But for now, events continue to spiral in Israel’s favour. We can only hope Netanyahu is wise enough to understand that this can be a win for the region as a whole.
