Since its founding, Israel’s national security doctrine has centred on decisive, short-term wars. This approach stems from practical necessities: for one, Israel’s reliance on military reserves – ex-IDF fighters who volunteer and pause their civilian lives to return for service during times of conflict. It was clear that there was only so much time they could be called upon.
That’s one reason, but there’s another; Israel knows too well that in every conflict it’s a part of, there’s a diplomatic window of opportunity. Israel’s allies will only allow it a limited time to conduct a war. This week, it seems, this diplomatic window is slamming shut.
This past week saw a significant shift. President Trump, who once threatened to open the gates of hell upon Gaza, said that help for the starving Gazans is needed. The leaders of the U.K., France, and Canada issued a stern warning to take concrete actions against Israel. Germany, one of Israel’s closest allies, called on Israel to increase humanitarian aid.
The following day, the U.K. issued fresh sanctions on Israel, paused talks about an upgraded trade deal and summoned the Israeli Ambassador. In perhaps the most concerning development, the EU announced it’s re-examining the multi-billion-euro association deal with Israel for a possible breach of Article 2; A clause determining that mutual relations will be based on respect for human rights and democratic principles.
“The situation is not good. It’s becoming harder and harder to stop the drift,” an Israeli diplomat confided to me. Jerusalem increasingly recognises that more diplomatic fallout may be imminent, with the White House’s changing tone clearly leading this global shift.
When reduced to its most fundamental equation, Israel’s position appears straightforward: Hamas still holds 58 hostages in Gaza, and still holds control over the strip.
Elad Simchayoff
Hamas is still Gaza’s sovereign and its only armed power. An extremist terror group that perpetrated the most horrific crimes against Jews since the Holocaust can not be left intact on Israel’s doorstep, a stone’s throw away from Israeli communities.
Hamas refuses to lay down its arms, and in that case, Israel refuses to end the war. Unless the war ends, not all 58 hostages, if any, can be brought back, and so the cruel cycle of suffering continues.
There’s a broad international consensus that the hostages should be released and that Hamas can no longer threaten Israel’s safety. The dispute in this case is not over what, but over how.
Netanyahu’s strategy of blocking humanitarian aid in the hope of pressuring Hamas into concessions completely backfired. There’s no progress in talks, the international community is outraged, Hamas’s warehouses are still full, and civilians in Gaza are facing a severe humanitarian crisis.
Netanyahu appears to be employing his familiar tactic of buying time and implementing half-measures. Preventing Hamas from diverting humanitarian aid is a legitimate concern, but after more than eighteen months of conflict, no viable alternative distribution system has been established. Now, aid will resume through the same problematic channels, with Hamas strengthened by the impasse.
In his response to the Canada/France/UK leaders’ statement, Netanyahu highlighted his conditions for ending the war: “The war can end tomorrow if the remaining hostages are released, Hamas lays down its arms, its murderous leaders are exiled, and Gaza is demilitarized”.
Again, addressing half the equation. Who will control Gaza after Hamas is gone? What will happen to the Gazans who will remain there? What will Israel’s role be? And what is his vision for Israeli-Palestinian relations? These crucial questions remain unanswered.
Netanyahu continues to articulate what he doesn’t want, instead of driving forward a positive vision of change and engaging world leaders to help implement it. He continues to react where he should lead.
Israel’s leaders must recognise that military objectives, however justified, cannot be achieved without diplomatic support. “If we have to,” Netanyahu once declared, “we will fight with our fingernails”. At the current rate of diplomatic isolation, Israel may soon find itself without any nails left.
- Elad Simchayoff is the European correspondent for Israel’s Channel 12 News. He also hosts Israel’s most listened to podcast.
