So, the day of reckoning has finally come to pass. After years in which the West utterly failed to deal with the Iranian nuclear threat, preferring soft power to military force, Israel has taken bold and decisive action. Overnight, the IAF carried out ‘Operation Rising Lion’ in a decisive attempt to strike at the heart of the Iranian nuclear programme and destroy Iran’s strategic command structure.
The air force attacked Iran’s main enrichment facility at Natanz as well as ballistic missile sites and storage facilities. They targeted key individuals in the Iranian military and intelligence, among them the IRGC commander Hossein Salami and the chief of the Iranian armed forces, Mohammad Bagheri. They also reportedly eliminated senior nuclear scientists whose knowledge was critical to the nuclear programme.
In addition, the Mossad carried out a series of covert sabotage operations against Iranian air defences, years in the planning, which neutralised Iran’s ability to respond to the Israeli attacks. This involved commando units deploying precision-guided weapons near to Iranian surface-to-air missile systems and the establishment of an explosive drone base inside Iran. As a result, this will likely be remembered as one of the great intelligence feats of the modern age.
These operations were preceded by an Israeli deception plan that threw the Iranians off guard. This included Netanyahu’s insistence that he was going on a vacation to the north of Israel and a reported visit to Jerusalem this weekend by Steve Witkoff. These turned out to be clever rushes, designed to convey a sense of calm and normalcy. The element of surprise was clearly critical to Israel’s success.
Of course, this is far from over. In recent hours, Iran has launched drones at Israel, and there is a strong likelihood of further retaliation and Israeli counterstrikes. Iran’s nuclear facilities have almost certainly not been completely destroyed, nor has Iran’s long-term ambition to join the nuclear club. Last night may prove to be merely the opening salvo in a new phase of the Israel-Iran wars that have convulsed the region since 7 October.
Yet despite the dangers, Israel was undoubtedly right to strike the Iranian nuclear programme. The timing of this operation was made possible by a confluence of at least three factors.
Firstly, it was clear that there was, in the words of IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, an ‘immediate operational necessity’. In a recent report, the IAEA announced that Iran now had enough uranium enriched to 60 percent to potentially make nine nuclear weapons, though Israel said the true figure was fifteen.
Secondly, the changed regional dynamics since October 7 provided Israel with a unique window of opportunity. In previous years, Netanyahu had been persuaded to avoid attacking Iran because of justified fears of retaliation from Iranian proxies.
But today, after nearly 20 months of war, Hamas is barely able to fire a rocket into Israel, while the vast military arsenal of Hezbollah has been severely degraded by Israeli attacks. Syria now has a new regime that is not beholden to Tehran, depriving Iran of a strategic corridor to Lebanon.
Further, despite possessing a sizeable number of ballistic missiles and deadly drones, Iran’s air defences, including its Russian-supplied S300 surface-to-air missile systems, were weakened by Israeli strikes last year. In military terms, Iran has been exposed as a paper tiger, barely able to defend its skies or seriously threaten its enemies.
The third factor is the failure of the US diplomatic outreach to the Islamic Republic. Trump had vowed to end the Iranian nuclear programme through diplomacy, in an extension of the soft power promoted by both the Obama and Biden administrations.
Jeremy Havardi
Given Iran’s long history of deception and evasion, that was always unlikely to bear fruit, with the regime’s rulers simply buying time while the centrifuges continued to spin. Iran insisted on its right to enrich uranium, and when Trump’s 60-day deadline for an agreement expired, there was no sign of further progress being made.
Israel had further political cover, courtesy of an announcement by the IAEA that Iran was not complying with its nuclear obligations, the first such announcement in 20 years. This combination gave Israel a golden opportunity to strike a massive blow at the heart of the Iranian regime, with the certain knowledge that any delay in acting could prove fatal.
Of course, the ritualistic condemnations have come quickly, both from David Lammy, who decried the regional escalation, and from the Saudis and others. Yet the world should be breathing a sigh of relief and offering Israel its deepest gratitude and support.
Iran, the world’s worst state sponsor of terror, has long sought the world’s worst weapons in order to carry out the world’s worst crimes. It is a lethal threat to its neighbours, to the wider Middle East and to the western world as a whole, and nothing short of regime change will curb its appetite for jihadist violence and chaos.
Israel alone has stood in the way of a nuclear Iran with an audacious operation that sums up perfectly the strength, courage and resilience of the Jewish nation.
- Jeremy Havardi is a freelance journalist and author
