As we speak, there is a huge buildup of American air power at Diego Garcia in readiness for what could soon be an explosive confrontation with the Iranian regime. Six American B2 bombers have been sent to the joint US-UK air base. Ostensibly designed to support American action against the Houthis, their presence is surely sending an important message to Iran.
For the B2 bombers are designed to carry the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 30,000-pound bomb which can destroy deeply buried targets, such as underground nuclear weapons facilities. It is fairly clear that, unlike his Democrat predecessors Biden and Obama, Trump is no longer prepared to tolerate an Iranian nuclear programme, even in emasculated form, or forego the use of force as a means of removing it.
The President has delivered an ultimatum to the ayatollahs – reach an accord in two months or face a devastating consequence. There are direct talks scheduled for this weekend which will see if any diplomatic breakthrough can be made.
Trump has been criticised for many of his recent foreign policy misadventures, quite understandably so. But his instincts for confronting the Iranian regime aggressively are on firmer ground. Consider first that every other option has been attempted to stop the Iranian bomb: diplomatic pressure; negotiations (often slow and protracted); the use of targeted sanctions and intelligence operations (mostly Israeli), which have had some effect.
Now consider that time is fast running out. According to the IAEA’s latest report on the Iranian nuclear program (2025), Iran can ‘convert its current stock of 60 percent enriched uranium into 174 kg of weapons grade uranium (WGU) in three weeks at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant’. This is ‘enough for 7 nuclear weapons’.
It is fairly clear that, unlike his Democrat predecessors Biden and Obama, Trump is no longer prepared to tolerate an Iranian nuclear programme
In addition, Iran’s stocks of enriched uranium and centrifuge capacity at Fordow and Natanz are sufficient to make enough WGU for 10 nuclear weapons in one month. Iran certainly has the delivery mechanisms in the form of long range ballistic missiles.
While the Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community has stated that ‘Iran is not building a nuclear weapon’, it also asserts that there is pressure on the Supreme Leader to alter course. Where might this pressure be coming from?
The forces acting on the Supreme Leader reflect the changing realities of the Middle East in the last 18 months. Quite simply, Iran is in a much weaker position since October 7. It has lost Syria, an important client state and a conduit for transporting weapons to Lebanon. Hezbollah is a depleted force following a crushing Israeli campaign that decapitated its entire leadership and destroyed a sizeable number of its most potent weapons.
Hamas is an emasculated entity in Gaza and the Houthis have been pounded by both Israeli and American strikes. In addition, Iran suffered greatly during its military exchanges with Israel last year. In October 2024, Israel destroyed Iran’s Russian supplied S300 air defence missile system, essentially leaving the country ‘naked’ according to a Biden official.
Internally, the Iranian government is tottering under the weight of crippling sanctions, a weakened currency, rampant inflation, extensive corruption and high unemployment. The ayatollahs are also roiled by popular opposition to their increasingly draconian domestic policies.
A successful US/Israeli strike at Iranian facilities would not only destroy the regime’s nuclear infrastructure but weaken and humiliate its government. A crushing defeat by the American ‘Satan’ will add to a sense that the ayatollahs are on their last legs and ripe for replacement.
By contrast, an Iranian bomb would be an utter disaster, empowering Tehran and ensuring that the Middle East would ‘explode in an arms race’, according to national security adviser, Mike Waltz.
Khamenei knows that he is in a weak position. He may sense that another round of futile negotiations with the US gives him what he needs the most – time. But this would be time used to further entrench the nuclear program and deceive the West, as Iran has been doing for decades. Now is the moment for decisive action, not words.
