With the approval of the budget law by the Israeli government, the date for the next elections has been virtually set for the end of October 2026.
The Knesset also approved the new composition of the judicial selection committee, increasing the control of government politics over the judiciary. The 67-1 vote, with the opposition abandoning the plenary, raises a chilling analogy with the Aventino episode – the abandonment of the Italian parliament by the democratic opposition in the face of the fascist government, exactly a century ago.
Two things have become clear in recent weeks. One is that the coalition’s position tends to strengthen at the expense of the opposition. According to polls, the opposition currently does not have the majority needed to form a government without the participation of the Arab parties.
In the current reality, this scenario has already proven desirable but impractical. And, moreover, the state budget was passed with incredible ease, almost without obstructionism, “facing an empty goal”. In other words, no organised and militant opposition has emerged that could have at least partially complicated the scandalous result attained in the Knesset.
The incumbent leader can now continue his practice of eroding state institutions and create an authoritarian state like Turkey, Russia or Hungary. All these countries rely on a single leader surrounded by half-figures of chatterboxes, lawbreakers and delusional lunatics.
The absence of effective opposition in the Knesset contributes to the cumulative destruction and decline of the country in terms of both democracy and development. The current government is leading to the failure to release the hostages in Gaza, to continuing a war lacking a clear purpose, to the erosion of the rule of law, to the deterioration of the economic investment balance, to the negative immigration balance, to isolation in every sphere of international cooperation and to the fragmentation of the Jewish communities in Israel and the diaspora. In the face of all this, a clear and dominant voice has not yet emerged that unequivocally points to a different direction.
Prof Sergio DellaPergola
Netanyahu may think, with a high degree of probability, of winning the 2026 elections. Likud will almost certainly emerge as the largest party, and the head of state will not hesitate to give its leader the first opportunity to form a new government. Even if Netanyahu fails to form a government, no one else will, and he will remain at the head of a caretaker government until new elections are called. In theory, Netanyahu could also call early elections, and even if he does not win a majority, in the absence of an alternative, he may remain interim prime minister for another year or two, even beyond October 2026.
What if Netanyahu loses? Currently, the opposition appears to be a leaderless, planless and purposeless herd. In case of victory, long and tedious internal negotiations will be necessary before consolidation to a functional level can be achieved.
On the other hand, the opposition must start formulating content and procedures now. It must present to the public what the plan is and who the people will be who will implement it. They should reconsider what party configuration will be able to compete with the ruling coalition.
A common method (especially in England) is to set up a shadow government, in which those who should replace the current administration are clearly identified. Now, not a year and a half from now, is the time to elaborate between the different paths presented by an opposition made up of factions and sub-factions of the left, the centre and the law-abiding right. And who will lead the shadow government? This can be decided by a primary election open to the public or by a concerted decision by the leaders of the various factions. But we can no longer procrastinate.
What if Bennett were to run? If Mr Bennett wants to run, now is the time to announce it and enter the fray. Bennett is getting a lot of sympathy in the polls, largely because he has not yet said a word about the main issues and where he wants to lead the country. Once he does speak, he will lose about half of his virtual support. However, Bennett could bring some additional seats to a different government than the current one.
If we assume that in a year and a half, there will be elections in Israel, then it is time to start the election campaign. A year and a half is enough time to think about what to do. If the opposition does not wake up and organise now, we will continue with more of the same in Israel forever, if the country can survive until then.
If the opposition is not able to form a shadow government, it will not know how to form a real government and will remain a shadow opposition.
Professor Emeritus DellaPergola is a demographer at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem
