Tunisia’s pro-Assad President has yet to reach out to new Syria

Tunisian President Kais Saied has yet to make a public statement on the new leadership in Damascus – more than a month after Syria’s opposition forces toppled his long-time ally, Bashar al-Assad.

On 9 December 2024, Syrian revolutionary flags fluttered in Tunis streets as over 2,000 Syrian refugees in the country celebrated the end of the Assad family’s five-decade tyranny. Yet within the halls of Tunisian diplomacy, there is yet to be a reaction.

After issuing a series of contradictory statements, Tunis has refrained from congratulating interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa or offering any form of recognition to Syria’s new government.

Amid the opposition’s final offensive in northern Syria, Tunisia issued a statement condemning what it described as “terrorist attacks” and expressing “full solidarity” with Damascus—without directly referencing the opposition forces. 

However, the tone shifted on 9 December 2024, after Assad’s fall, when the Foreign Ministry released a statement calling for upholding Syria’s unity and sovereignty while rejecting foreign interference. Still, there was no mention of the new leadership. 

By 12 December, Tunisia had pivoted its focus entirely. A third statement condemned Israeli incursions into the occupied Golan Heights and beyond, but Syria’s political transition was left unaddressed.

“Tunisia’s hesitation stems from a deeper issue—its lack of a coherent foreign policy”, Ahmed Ghalioufi, a political expert told the New Arab.

“The country’s domestic turmoil under Saied has led to a foreign policy that is reactive rather than strategic.”

Some observers suggest that Saied’s caution could reflect his wariness of a new wave of pro-democracy movement in the region after Assad’s fall, including in Tunisia, where Saied is widely perceived as a rising authoritarian.

“Syria’s suffering—once used by tyrants as a warning against any calls for reform—now stands as a source of inspiration and hope”, wrote Youssar Ghannouchi, whose father was jailed under Saied’s rule.

Saied, a Pan-Arab nationalist, had been a staunch supporter of the Assad regime.

Following his 2021 coup, he intensified Tunisia’s efforts to re-establish diplomatic relations with Damascus and met with Bashar al-Assad, calling the encounter a ‘historic meeting.’

“There is an ideological aspect to this”, Al-Ghalioufi noted.

“Saied has consistently framed political Islam as a threat. (…) His reluctance to condemn the changes in Syria suggests he’s still grappling with how to respond.”

Even beyond the government, Tunisia’s pan-Arab nationalist parties have expressed concern about the rise of Islamist factions in Syria.

Meanwhile, The country’s largest Islamist party, Ennahda, has celebrated the fall of al-Assad as a triumph for the Syrian people, who have spent over a decade battling tyranny.

Yet, amid this regional shift, Tunisia faces its own unresolved security challenges with Syria.

Over 2,400 Tunisian nationals are believed to have joined extremist groups in Syria, and their potential return is a growing concern for Tunisian authorities.

Last week, state-owned Tunisair announced new measures to tighten security at airports, including special screenings for flights arriving from Turkey—reportedly due to “fears that returning extremists could destabilise the country.”

Historically, Tunisia—unlike its North African neighbours Morocco and Algeria—has waited for international heavyweights to guide its foreign policy decisions.

On Syria, Saied appears to be waiting for a broader consensus from the Arab League, a grouping to which he has long shown strong allegiance.

Meanwhile, Algeria, which shares Tunisia’s pro-Assad stance, has also yet to formally congratulate Syria’s new leadership.

However, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune revealed last week that his country had tried to mediate between Assad and the opposition before the regime’s collapse.

“A special envoy was sent to him (Assad), and Algeria offered to act as a mediator for dialogue with the opposition, with the approval of the UN”, Tebboune said in an interview on 2 February.

“But the initiative was unsuccessful, and the rest is history.”