Israel’s brutal war on Gaza, and its regional fallout, has been ongoing for 17 months [JACK GUEZ/AFP via Getty Images]
An annual intelligence report from the US government warned on Tuesday that Israel’s war on Gaza and its fallout is set to keep the Middle East “volatile” and that Hamas remains a threat despite the 17-month Israeli offensive on the enclave.
The report, titled the ‘Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community’, offered a detailed review of threats emanating from the ongoing war in Gaza, including the situation in the West Bank, Lebanon, Iraq, the Red Sea, and threats from Iran.
“We expect the situation in Gaza, as well as Israel-Hizballah and Israel–Iran dynamics, to remain volatile,” the report said, adding that “even in degraded form, Hamas continues to pose a threat to Israeli security”.
The report judged that, even despite the devastating war in Gaza, which has killed tens of thousands and left the enclave uninhabitable, Hamas has “thousands of fighters and much of its underground infrastructure” with the ability to wage an insurgency against Israeli military forces in Gaza.
It also said that while Hamas’s popularity among the population in Gaza had declined, it remained high in the occupied West Bank against the Palestinian Authority (PA).
The West Bank has become “increasingly unstable”, the report said, noting that among the several challenges for PA governance are Israeli raids on the occupied territory and settler attacks, as well as Palestinian militancy and a potentially volatile leadership transition in Ramallah.
The UN previously said that 2024 saw the highest levels of settler violence in the occupied West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem on record, while Israel has continued to target Palestinian population centres, displacing 40,000 people from some of the area’s largest refugee camps.
Additionally, the report described Yemen’s Houthis, which have been launching attacks on international shipping passing through the Red Sea in support of Gaza while clashing with the US Navy, as “the most aggressive actor” from Iran’s so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’.
Alongside the Houthis other members of the Axis were also discussed, including Iraqi Shia militias, which the report said are attempting to pressure the Iraqi government to ensure a US withdrawal from Iraq.
Likewise, the report noted that any resumption of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah would be damaging for Lebanon, threatening the new government’s ability to repair the country that was battered by Israeli airstrikes and still feeling the effects of the 2019 financial collapse.
Regarding Iran, the report said that it is likely to continue to confront the US and Israel. “Tehran will try to leverage its robust missile capability and expanded nuclear program, and its diplomatic outreach to regional states and US rivals to bolster its regional influence and ensure regime survival,” the report read.
“However, regional and domestic challenges, most immediately tensions with Israel, are seriously testing Iran’s ambitions and capabilities,” it added.
Outside the direct fallout of the Gaza war, the report said that governing Syria is a “daunting challenge” for the new transitional government amid a host of factors, including international sanctions, economic and humanitarian challenges, as well as sectarian violence, and the existence of Islamist extremist groups like Islamic State.
As well as the Middle East, the report evaluates threats faced by the US and its citizens across the world, including from state actors such as Russia and China, and transnational crime.
