What is behind the new rebel offensive in northwest Syria?

Syrian rebels launched their first major offensive in four years against government positions in northwest Syria near Aleppo, advancing several miles and capturing several key villages.

The offensive, which began on Wednesday, has taken the regime and its allies by surprise, with fierce battles leading to over 130 people killed. Syrian regime and Russian forces have launched airstrikes across the northwest in retaliation.

The rebel assault has so far seen a rapid collapse in Assad regime defences in western Aleppo’s countryside, enabling the opposition forces to capture several villages and towns, as well as regime positions.

Overnight and into Thursday morning, opposition forces secured control of villages including Arnaz, Sheikh Ali, Rif al-Muhandisin al-Thani, Basratun, and the oil factory west of Aleppo, which has been turned into massive military barracks by regime forces.

A base belonging to the 46th Division of the Assad-loyal Syrian Arab Army was also captured by the rebels.

The New Arab looks at who the rebels behind the offensive are, as well as what their aims are and what its outcomes could be?

Who are the rebels involved in the offensive?

The official name of the offensive is “Operation Deter the Aggression” and it was launched by a grouping of rebel forces under the name of the Fath al-Mubeen Operations Room.

This rebel alliance is led by the hardline Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), but it contains many other rebel factions, ranging from moderate Islamists to largely secular nationalist groups.

As well as HTS, the factions known to be involved include Ahrar al-Sham, the National Liberation Front, Jaish al-Izzeh, Al-Jabhat al-Shamiya and Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki.

Additionally, sources confirmed the participation of fighters from the secular nationalist Syrian National Army (SNA) factions, including the influential “Joint Force”, which is closely aligned with Turkey. However, while the SNA has supported the operation rhetorically, it has not officially confirmed its participation, which is likely due to the influence of Turkey.

In Idlib, which is the last remaining area of Syria to be held by the opposition, the rebel groups are split between Turkish-backed forces and independent entities like HTS and others.

What are the aims of the rebel offensive?

As the operation name “Deterring the Aggression” suggests, the rebels have said that the offensive is aimed at limiting Assad, Iran and Russia’s ability to wage war on Idlib.

A spokesman for the Jaysh al-Izzah rebel group, Mustafa Bakkour, told The New Arab’s Arabic sister site Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that the operation was a response to the regime and its Russian and Iranian allies massing troops and launching attacks in the northwest over the past few weeks.

By aiming the attack at Aleppo, the rebels are striking at the largest Assad regime-controlled population centre in the north. 

Turkish security sources said on Thursday that it was a “limited offensivb” aimed at deterring the Assad regime from targeting civilians in Idlib.

However, the operation seems to be growing and gathering more momentum due to its rapid success.

As previously mentioned, the rebel alliance has managed to gain quick battlefield victories, overwhelming Assad regime and Iranian-backed ground forces, and capturing key strategic locations, including military bases.

These gains have allowed the rebels to move closer to capturing and potentially blocking the M-5 highway, which is Syria’s main artery linking Aleppo and Damascus.

On Thursday, it was reported on social media that the highway had been closed due to the fighting.

The rebels have also opened up a second front in eastern Idlib, advancing on the city of Saraqib, which is heavily occupied by Russian and Iranian-backed forces.

Intense battles are ongoing in the village of Kafr Batikh, as the opposition forces aim to cut southern supply lines to Saraqib, with the aim of capturing or severely weakening the regime presence in the city.

Several sources have said that the rebels hope to restore the lines of the 2019 Idlib de-escalation zone, which was agreed to by Turkey and Russia.

However, since 2020, Iranian and Assad regime forces have brazenly violated the terms of this agreement by capturing more land.

The offensive could be an attempt to push out pro-Assad forces from these areas and reestablish the boundaries of the de-escalation zone.

What is the outcome likely to be?

While there has been indications for weeks that rebel forces were planning an offensive in response to attacks on Idlib and other rebel-held areas of the northwest, no one saw an operation of this magnitude coming.

This includes the Assad regime and its allies. Therefore the outcome is difficult to gauge, given it is unknown how long the HTS-led rebels can sustain the offensive. This depends on their ability not just to take regime-held positions but hold them and prevent regime-held areas from being able to easily resupply.

One outcome that is known is retaliation from the regime and its allies. Both Assad and Russia have already carried out numerous airstrikes across Idlib today.

Russia, despite its war in Ukraine, still has a significant presence in the Syria and while Assad and Iran’s proxy forces, such as Hezbollah, have taken significant losses at the hands of Israel, they are still more than capable of regrouping and launching a counteroffensive under the cover of airstrikes.