Which countries, alliances will be impacted by the US election?

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are currently going head-to-head during the highly-anticipated US presidential election, which could see either the’ first-ever female, south Asian and African-American US president, or the first president to serve two non-consecutive terms since 1897.

Among the election’s most decisive factors for voters is foreign policy, amid significant world events – chiefly Israel’s ongoing deadly war in Gaza and expanding aggression in the region. But how will the election results impact some of the world’s biggest issues?

The New Arab takes a look.

Israel-Palestine

Both the Democrats and Republicans are pro-Israel. The Harris-Biden administration has provided Israel with $17.9 billion worth of military assistance in Israel’s brutal military onslaught in the Gaza Strip, ongoing since 7 October last year that has killed more than 43,000 Palestinians.

The Democrats have occasionally criticised Israel’s brutality in Gaza, and have called for a ceasefire. However, the administration has staunchly expressed Israel’s right to self-defence and have rejected an arms embargo on the country. Recently, the Democrats said they will limit its military support if it doesn’t give Gaza more access to humanitarian aid, but many believe this is unlikely to occur.

Trump, on the other hand, seems to have a slightly more ambiguous stance on Israel and the Palestinian territories. On one hand, he has vowed to “end the war” in Gaza, but the biggest donor to his presidential campaign has been Israeli-American billionaire Miriam Adelson. During his previous tenure, Trump implemented a series of pro-Israeli policies, such as moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and establishing the Abraham Accords, which saw a number of Arab nations normalise relations with Israel.

The “America First” president also recognised the illegal Israeli annexation of the occupied Golan Heights.

No matter who wins, Israel will likely receive its continued financial and diplomatic support from is long-standing ally, and the war in Gaza won’t likely end any time soon given Benjamin Netanyahu’s determination to continue and even expand the conflict.

Russia-Ukraine

Trump has also said that he would end the “horrible”  Russian-led war in Ukraine should he serve a second term as President. However, he has never stated how quickly he would pull such a move. Critics fear that by “ending the war”, Trump simply means letting Putin, who he is admittedly close to, win. 

“Biden’s weakness has given us the Ukraine disaster… this invasion of Ukraine would never have happened if I was in the White House,” he said in April 2022.

He also criticised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for securing billions of dollars worth of US assistance, calling him “the greatest salesman on earth”.

The Democrats, on the other hand, have strongly supported the Ukrainian cause, asserting Ukraine’s right to self-determination in the face of Russia’s war against the country.

The Biden administration has stressed “America’s commitment to supporting Ukraine as it defends its freedom and independence”, providing the European country with hundred of billions in military aid.

NATO

Trump, who has espoused protectionist and isolationist policies, had previously criticised the US’ funding of Europe’s top security blanket, and has slammed other nations for not spending as much on the military alliance.

Trump has threatened to withdraw the US from NATO, and such a move could weaken Washington’s position on the global stage, while also weakening the US’s European allies against Russia and China.

“Some of the worst trading countries are allies. Don’t let that word surprise you. They’re allies. They’re friends of ours, and they take advantage of us horribly on the military with NATO and on trade,” he once said.

The Biden administration however has maintained NATO’s importance to US-Europe relations, and sees its role in the military alliance as key in Ukraine’s fight against Russia.

“We should strengthen the alliances that we have such as NATO, which is the strongest military alliance the world has ever seen. We must stand with our friend Ukraine, where Russia is attempting to change borders by force,” Harris said in a television appearance last month.

“As president, I will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies,” she added.

Iran

Amid Israel and Iran’s heightened shadow war – carried out in the backdrop of the war in Gaza amid a number of tit-for-tat strikes – Trump said that Tel Aviv “should attack” Tehran’s nuclear facilities, something that could start an all-out regional war.

During his first term, Trump infamously withdrew the US from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, much to international criticism. The move further worsened Washington-Tehran ties, which have been non-existent for over four decades, and are likely to continue that way.

Attempts to revive the talks under the Biden presidency have failed, though both the Republicans and Democrats have said they are willing to re-start negotiations. Both parties also have a hardline stance on Iran, with Harris recently calling Tehran the US’ “greatest adversary”.

China

Strategists in Beijing said that while they expect more fiery rhetoric and potentially crippling tariffs from Donald Trump, some have suggested he could be driven by pragmatism and a willingness to strike deals on trade and Taiwan. Trump has also expressed his admiration for Chinese strongman Xi Jinping, especially his dictatorial powers.  In July, Trump referred to Xi as a “brilliant guy” with an “iron fist”. 

From Kamala Harris, Beijing expects predictability and a continuation of US President Joe Biden’s approach of working with allies on China-related issues, such as tech curbs, Taiwan, and the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Either outcome is unlikely to cause a major shift, analysts have said, given how entrenched the geopolitical rivalry with Beijing has become, and how politically toxic even a perception of reaching out to China is on both sides of the aisle in Washington.