While the pressure is greater than in any previous attempt to elect a president in the past two years, none of the main candidates currently have sufficient support to secure an election [Getty]
Lebanon’s parliament is set to convene on Thursday to elect a president and fill the vacant head of state position but major parties remain divided over the choice of candidate.
The international community, including the US and Saudi Arabia, is calling for the swift election of a president to uphold the fragile ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, which came into effect on 27 November and ended a large-scale conflict that devastated many parts of Lebanon.
International funding for reconstruction is also being tied to resolving the political deadlock via the election of a head of state, suggesting the possibility that Lebanon might finally have a head of state after a 27 month wait.
The presidency has remained vacant since Michel Aoun’s term expired in October 2022, highlighting the severe political paralysis that has exacerbated the country’s worst financial crisis in recent years.
Since Aoun’s term ended, there have been 12 failed sessions to elect a new president with no consensus emerging despite ongoing domestic and international efforts to break the deadlock.
Under Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system, the presidency is reserved for a Maronite Christian and the rules require two-thirds of parliament’s 128 lawmakers to attend for the session to go ahead, meaning one-third can torpedo a vote simply by not showing up.
While the pressure is greater than in any previous attempt to elect a president over the past two years, none of the main candidates currently have sufficient support to secure an election.
Here are the main names in the frame:
Sleiman Frangieh
Heir to one of Lebanon’s oldest political dynasties, Sleiman Frangieh has long been seen as a potential president and appeared close to getting the job in 2016 before it went to Aoun as part of a cross-party political deal.
His main backers this time are the allied Hezbollah and Amal Party, headed by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.
One of Hezbollah’s closest allies, Frangieh has described its arsenal as vital to defending Lebanon from Israel and has been dismissive of the capabilities of Lebanon’s US-backed army. His critics cite his close Hezbollah ties as a main reason for opposing his candidacy.
Frangieh, 57, was thrust into politics early in life after his parents and sister were killed by a Christian militia in 1978 at their home in the north, part of a battle for primacy among Christians during the 1975-90 civil war.
Frangieh is a close personal friend of Syria’s ousted president, Bashar al-Assad.
He was a pillar of a Damascus-dominated order that ruled Lebanon for 15 years after the civil war until Syria was forced to withdraw in 2005 following the assassination of Rafik al-Hariri. His Marada Party is one of Lebanon’s smaller Christian factions.
Despite his chances diminishing significantly following Israel’s war with Hezbollah and the fall of Assad’s regime, Frangieh has yet to officially withdraw his candidacy.
“I am still in the race, and if we agree on a name during the session on January 9, I am open to that, but we want a candidate who is suitable for the current stage,” he said in his latest appearance.
However, Lebanon’s MTV channel reported on Tuesday that US envoy Amos Hochstein had told Lebanese officials that Washington “has a veto” on  Frangieh.
Joseph Aoun
Army Commander General Joseph Aoun is considered one of the most prominent names being discussed for the presidency. Despite sharing the same family name as former president Michel Aoun, the two are not related.
Aoun has led the US-backed army since 2017, a tenure mostly defined by the financial crisis. In 2021, he warned the meltdown would “inevitably lead to the collapse of all state institutions including the Lebanese Armed Forces, the backbone of the country”.
A career soldier, he also criticised ruling politicians over the collapse, saying soldiers were going hungry along with the rest of the population and asking politicians: “What do you intend to do?”
Shortly after assuming the army command in 2017, he oversaw the defeat of Islamic State group (IS) militants at the Syrian-Lebanese border. The campaign won praise from the US ambassador at the time, who said the army had done an “excellent job”.
The Lebanese Forces have expressed some support for him as a possible president, crediting him for running the army well and acting “as a statesman”. However, the Christian party, whose leader Samir Geagea recently came forward as a candidate, has insisted on Aoun being officially endorsed by Hezbollah and Amal before they would consider supporting him.
The Democratic Gathering bloc – headed by Druze MP Taymour Jumblatt – endorsed Aoun’s candidacy last month, while other independent MPs also voiced their intention to vote for him.
Most notably, however, Wafiq Safa, the head of Hezbollah’s Coordination and Liaison Unit, alleged on Sunday that his party would not “veto” Aoun’s election despite previously opposing his candidacy.
Aoun has also enjoyed international support, notably from the US and Saudi Arabia.
However, Gebran Bassil, the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, has repeatedly opposed Aoun’s candidacy. Despite this, Aoun appears to have a significant lead, though political surprises in the final moments could slow his progress, especially since consensus around him has not yet fully solidified.
Jihad Azour
Jihad Azour, a former Lebanese finance minister, has served as the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Director for the Middle East and Central Asia since 2017.
Initially, his candidacy for the Lebanese presidency was endorsed by opposition forces, including the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), in June 2023.
Recently, his chances have risen once again with speculation that Hezbollah and Amal, referred to as the “Shia duo”, might consider backing him.
His candidacy has emerged as a key strategy to block other contenders, including General Joseph Aoun, and to counter Hezbollah’s preferred candidate, Sleiman Frangieh.
Throughout this period, Azour has largely remained silent, avoiding media appearances to discuss his candidacy.
However, in a press release last year, he refuted claims that his candidacy was aimed at narrowing the chances of other politicians’ chances of being president, positioning himself instead as a “unifying” force who represents the “greatest aspirations of the Lebanese people”.
Samir Geagea
Samir Geagea heads the Lebanese Forces and the ‘Strong Republic’ parliamentary bloc which has the largest number of MPs, at 19.Â
The bloc has previously supported Azour and rejected Aoun’s candidacy, though it said it would back Aoun if Hezbollah and Amal endorsed him. However, now they are seeking consensus for their own leader Gaegae, who announced in December he would run for president if he had enough support.
Geagea was a civil war leader who had been imprisoned for his wartime crimes, but received a controversial pardon in 2005 and resumed his leadership role in Lebanese politics shortly after.
His candidacy for the Lebanese presidency stems from his political influence and popularity among Lebanon’s Christian community.
He is a prominent and vocal critic of Hezbollah and Iranian influence in Lebanon and had recently called for Hezbollah to disarm, accusing the group of leading Lebanon into war with Israel.
On Sunday, Hezbollah’s Wafiq Safa said the party would block Geagea’s presidential bid, accusing him of seeking mass destruction and civil war.
Elias Baissari
Born in 1964, the acting director of General Security Elias Baissari is seen as a candidate likely to garner broad consensus.
He is known for maintaining good relations with various political figures, including Parliament Speaker and Amal leader Nabih Berri, according to his associates. However, much of his career can be attributed to the Murr family.
Baissari, who joined the Lebanese Army in 1986, was seconded to the defence ministry and interior ministry in 2004 and 2005, working alongside former minister Elias Murr. He was even seriously injured during an assassination attempt on Murr in July 2005.
In March 2023, Baissari replaced General Abbas Ibrahim as head of General Security, after Hezbollah’s efforts failed to keep him in the position following the expiration of his mandate. His election as president would require a constitutional amendment, as Article 49 stipulates that candidates must meet certain eligibility criteria, including being a parliamentarian.
While the Amal-Hezbollah alliance officially backs Frangieh, it also looks to engage with the Free Patriotic Movement in supporting Baissari as an alternative to Azour and Aoun.
Other prominent names
Other key names that have surfaced as potential presidential candidates include Georges Khoury, a former army officer, whose candidacy has sparked controversy due to his past ties with the pro-Assad regime 8 March alliance.
Khoury enjoys good relations with Hezbollah and Amal and is reportedly very close to Speaker Berri. His candidacy previously faced strong opposition from the Sunni Future Movement, the Druze Progressive Socialist Party, and the Christian Lebanese Forces.
Though Khoury is still supported by Berri and the Free Patriotic Movement, he lacks broad appeal, making his chances of securing the presidency unlikely.
Ibrahim Kanaan, a current MP and part of the Free Patriotic Movement, is another name touted as a potential candidate but he too lacks cross-sectarian support – particularly among Sunni and Druze communities – which will limit his chances. His name has been floated by smaller parties seeking fresh leadership but without significant backing from major political forces.
Nohad El Frem, a former interior minister, has also been considered by some as a “compromise” candidate due to his reputation for neutrality and past ministerial experience. However, his low profile and limited visibility on the national stage might hinder his ability to attract widespread support.
Ziad Baroud, another technocratic figure, has been floated as a potential unifying candidate. Known for his efforts to maintain neutrality during his time as interior minister, Baroud has support from reformist and independent factions. Yet, his relatively low profile compared to other candidates and lack of strong political backing make it difficult for him to gain significant traction.
Finally, Samir Assaf, a lesser-known figure, has appeared sporadically in discussions about potential candidates. With limited visibility and no backing from major parties, his candidacy is largely viewed as speculative and unlikely to gain meaningful support.
If a president is elected on Thursday, he would be responsible for appointing a prime minister in consultation with parliament. This is expected to be a lengthy process, and the resulting executive body will face the daunting challenge of reviving the crisis-ridden nation.
If no agreement is reached in Thursday’s session, the presidential vote could be postponed until after 20 January, when US President-elect Donald Trump assumes office.
