The collapse of Bashar Al-Assad’s brutal regime in Syria in early December gave rise to hopes that an end to the country’s lengthy civil war was finally on the horizon.
However, clashes continue in the north between militias operating under the umbrella of the self-styled, Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) on one side, and the US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) on the other. And there is little sign of any let-up.
When Syrian opposition forces led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group captured Syria’s second city, Aleppo, in late November, the SNA launched a concurrent offensive targeting Kurds in that province that displaced tens of thousands of civilians.
Clashes with the SDF ensued, with the latter group losing ground west of the Euphrates River, most notably Tel Rifaat and Manbij.
The SNA set their sights on the strategic Qaraquzaq Bridge and the Tishreen Dam on the Euphrates and the Kurdish border city of Kobani on the river’s east bank. The latter has special symbolism for the Kurds as it was where the Kurdish YPG, the main backbone of today’s SDF, endured and repelled a ferocious Islamic State (IS) siege in 2014-15 with supporting US airstrikes.
“The Qaraquzaq bridge isn’t a major infrastructural asset in and of itself. It’s strategic only because it’s the way you get from the Aleppo region to Kobani or Ain Issa,” Aron Lund, a fellow with Century International and a Middle East analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, told The New Arab.
“If Turkish leaders really want an offensive to happen, they don’t need the bridge,” Lund said. “They could let the SNA attack from across the border instead or send in their own troops.”
A convoy of US troops was sighted heading for Kobani in early January. The US denied subsequent speculation they were establishing a military base there.
“The SNA will push against the SDF until the US makes its position clear. Turkey will avoid a direct clash with the United States but is keen to probe America’s commitment,” Joshua Landis, Director of the Centre of Middle East Studies and the Farzaneh Family Center for Iranian and Persian Gulf Studies at the University of Oklahoma, told TNA.
“Recent US mobilisation around Kobani and its announcement that troop levels had been augmented to 2,000 are signs that it is committed to protecting the Kurds and the SDF for the time being,” Landis said.
Fighting continued on 12-13 January after the SNA launched an attack southeast of Manbij. The SDF claimed they killed 23 SNA militiamen and injured another seven. The group also reported air and drone strikes carried out by Turkey in support of its Syrian proxy.
The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor estimates that at least 423 people have been killed in this SNA-SDF conflict since 12 December; 41 of them civilians, 308 SNA, and the remaining 74 SDF fighters.
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Syrian Kurds have repeatedly warned that SNA attacks in the Tishreen Dam could result in a collapse. The dam is a critical source of water and electricity for many in the region. On 8 January, a Turkish drone targeted a civilian convoy heading to the dam to protest the Turkish and SNA attacks. That strike killed and injured several, according to local reports.
Turkey carried out drone strikes on Tishreen throughout last Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Saturday’s strikes killed four civilians and injured 15 more demonstrating against attacks on the area. Furthermore, these latest strikes caused structural damage.
“The Tishreen Dam is very important, both to regulate the Euphrates and due to the risk of flooding if it breaks, and because it’s critical to Syrian power generation,” Lund said. “Neither side wants it destroyed.”
Turkey remains committed to bringing about the disarmament of the SDF and the dismantlement of any Kurdish autonomy in Syria. Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler reiterated Ankara’s stance that the SDF “will be dissolved sooner or later” shortly after Assad’s fall. “Both the new administration in Syria and we want this,” he said.
“Turkey keeps warning that it will intervene, but there’s no clarity on when, where, or how, and there’s little to show that they’re actually preparing a major attack. I think ultimately some form of Turkish or Turkish-directed offensive is inevitable,” Lund said.
Turkey has never found itself in a stronger position in Syria before, while the SDF, conversely, is weaker than ever. On top of that, President-elect Donald Trump has expressed his intent to withdraw US troops from Syria.
“For the moment, however, things seem to be on a low boil as Ankara talks to Washington,” Lund said. “(Turkish President) Erdogan may be waiting for Trump to get into office, but it’s also possible that he’ll want to shape the political and military environment before Trump gets a handle on the situation.”
Landis believes that most Syrian Arabs “share Turkey’s desire” to disband the SDF and the accompanying Kurdish-led civilian administration in northeast Syria.
“But most Syrians do not want to see more violence in the process,” he said. “They hope that negotiations will achieve this end.”
For any negotiations to succeed, Landis contends that the US needs to “show its seriousness” about pulling all of its troops out of Syria. The modest American presence, established in 2015 to help the SDF defeat the Islamic State, is crucial for enabling the SDF to withstand the SNA and its powerful Turkish backer.
Landis believes the continued US presence will make any peaceful transition more difficult. He also anticipates any integration of the SDF into a new Syrian military will prove challenging. SDF leader Mazloum Abdi recently expressed the group’s readiness to become part of a new national army. Abdi has also called on Trump to maintain the US troop presence to prevent an Islamic State resurgence.
“Present negotiations do not seem to be bearing fruit, much as negotiations between Assad and the SDF did not,” Landis said, referring to intermittent negotiations with the former regime that began in 2018 but ultimately proved fruitless.
Lund believes that the SNA factions can be integrated into a new Syrian Army formed by HTS, although the “shape and scope of that project” remains to be seen.
“HTS’s capacity to govern and control events is still uncertain, and the SNA groups are famously chaotic and unmanageable,” he said. “But in terms of politics and patronage, they’re basically on the same page.”
That’s not the case with the SDF.
“SDF leaders say they’re willing to join the new armed forces, but it comes with an important caveat: they want to remain as a unified structure within that army,” Lund said.
“HTS doesn’t want that, and Turkey won’t tolerate it because it would mean letting the SDF organisation survive.”
Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist based in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, who writes about Middle East affairs.
Follow him on Twitter: @pauliddon
