Sudan’s armed forces have been waging a war against the RSF militia since April 2023 [AFP via Getty Images]
Sudan’s civil war, which will reach its two-year anniversary in April, is in danger of drawing in its western neighbour Chad after a war of words erupted between members the two countries’ governments.
The spat is the latest development in a deterioration of relations between the two states since the start of Sudan’s war in 2023.
It began following comments made by the deputy commander of Sudan’s armed forces, who said in a televised address on Sunday that airports in Chad’s capital and N’Djamena and city of Amdjarras were legitimate targets for the Sudanese military.
The statement prompted a furious reaction from Chad, with foreign ministry spokesperson Ibrahim Adam Mahamat saying the remarks “could be interpreted as a declaration of war if followed through”.
“Chad reserves the legitimate right to respond vigorously to any attempted aggression,” he added.
The comments don’t come from a vacuum, however, as relations between Sudan and Chad have been deteriorating for years.
Sudan is currently embroiled in a brutal civil war, which is pitting the armed forces led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia, led by Mohamed Hamdan Daglo.
Sudan’s armed forces have long accused Chad of being a conduit for the delivery of military supplies to the RSF from the UAE.  Sudan has taken the UAE to the International Court of Justice, accusing it of supporting the RSF’s alleged crimes against humanity in the Darfur region.
Although Chad has repeatedly denied the accusations, reports by observers and the UN have suggested that the UAE has been flying military equipment through airports in Amdjarras and in N’Djamena, sites that the military said were “legitimate targets”.
Will the two countries go to war?
The comments from Sudan “have never been so precise and open”, according to Charles Bouessel, Central Africa Analyst for the International Crisis Group.
He told The New Arab that such threats may have been made off the back of the “euphoria” of the Sudanese army’s recent victories against the RSF around the capital Khartoum
The army recaptured Khartoum airport on Wednesday, a few days after taking the Presidential Palace from the RSF on Friday.
“They are also a way of reminding [Chadian president] Deby that he bet on the wrong side,” he added.
However, an all-out-war between the two countries was unlikely at this stage, Bouessel said, noting that military action by Sudan would prompt a strong response from Chad’s powerful army that could see it get directly involved in the war, especially in Darfur where the RSF is besieging the last military stronghold of the army in El-Fasher.
However, Sudan could potentially support Chadian rebels against the government, as it did before in 2006 and 2008 when rebels attempted to take power in Chad with Sudanese support.
“It would be counterproductive for the Sudanese army to enter into an open war against Chad, and it is more likely that the countries will fight each other through proxy groups,” Bouessel added.
